Larry Kudlo: The economy works better than you think

Everyone will focus on jobs and economics tomorrow when the recruitment report is published in August at 8:30 am. The number of unanimity on the non -cultivated salaries is 75,000, but all I can say is, do not bet on it. Monthly functionality expectations are a large one of Crapshoot.

There are approximately 160 million people working in America. So, if you miss your expectations by only 1 %, it is Miss 160,000. Therefore, on this basis, jobs can reach 235,000. The jobs can decrease by 85,000 based on 75,000 consensus. In addition, we have seen significant declining reviews in recent months, and it is completely possible that there is more of these on the way. We have a new man in BLS and EJ Antoni, a great friend and a very smart fellow. But he will not be able to make any real improvements for some time.

Today, the private sector processing automatic data in August (ADP) The job report came in 54000But there is no real relationship between this number and the BLS number. Earlier this week, we had a number of tremors that appeared in the light of 7.18 million (Jolts means opening jobs and wiping work rotation). For the first time since April 2021, the employment level was just less than the number of unemployed, 7.2 million. Therefore, it is a slight, but perhaps, along with other labor market indicators, indicates softening in the form of jobs.

It is not a big shrinkage. The unemployment rate is still 4.2 %. Weekly unemployment claims show a strong and stable business market. Perhaps the worst number is the ISM manufacturing index, which lasts less than 50 %, as it was for several years. However, ISM services are 52 % stronger today. Another good number is business investment, called non -defensive capital goods except for aircraft, as requests increase more than 10 % at an annual rate and charges more than 6 % over the past 3 months.

To some extent, Mr. Trump’s economic and commercial policies aim to produce new factories, and it appears that the newly expected construction is on its way. Especially with 100 % consumption networks. Here is an incredibly amazing number: the productivity of the non -financial companies sector over the past four quarters increases by 3.4 %. For the past quarter, productivity alone increased by 5.7 % at an annual rate. All this before Mr. Trump is a “big and beautiful bill” It did not come into effect.

And now it is called “the bill for lowering the working families’ taxes.” The real wages are already rising. Today, CEA President Stephen Miran says there is no definition inflation. So, whatever happens with tomorrow’s work report, the economy works better than you think.