Kashmir brokerage show in Donald Trump puts India in a narrow place

For decades, if there is one thing that was forbidden in the Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, it is the third-party mediation in a long-term conflict with Pakistan on Kashmir.

Those who know, then, were not surprised that US President Donald Trump – known for his unconventional diplomat – has touched a raw nerve in Delhi.

On Saturday, he moved to social media to announce that India and Pakistan – after four tense days of cross -border clashes – agreed to “a full and immediate shooting”, which was mediated by the United States.

Later, in another post he said: “I will work with you both to see if a solution can be reached, after a thousand years, regarding Cashmeer.”

Kashmir’s dispute dates back to 1947, when India got independence from British rule and was divided into the establishment of Pakistan. Both neighbors claim the entire Kashmir region, but they only partially run them.

Several rounds of bilateral talks over the decades have not resulted in any decision. India treats Kashmir as an integral part of its lands and excludes any negotiations, especially through a third party.

The last strait began after India carried out air strikes on what the terrorist infrastructure described inside Pakistan following the attack on tourists in Kashmir, Indian managers last month, killing 26 people, especially tourists.

India blames Pakistan, involved in the accident, a charge that was denied by Islamabad.

Trump’s intervention came when the fighting between nuclear armed competitors was threatening to reach a complete conflict.

The two sides used combat aircraft, missiles and drones and said they were targeting the military facilities for each other, especially in the border areas.

While American intermediaries, along with diplomatic background channels, A greater firePresident Trump offered to put Delhi in a place.

“It is clear that it will not be welcomed by the Indian side. It contradicts our declared position for many years,” said Shiam Saran, a former Indian foreign minister of The BBC.

The Delhi site in Kashmir, especially after it withdrew the special situation of Pamo and Kashmir in 2019, caused widespread protests in Kashmir.

President Trump’s recent comments raised many Indians who see this as an attempt to “internationalize” the Kashmir conflict.

The main opposition conference party wanted an explanation from the government and a meeting of all parties on “ceasefire announcements from Washington, DC first.”

“Did we open the doors to the mediation of the third party? The Indian National Congress would like to ask whether the diplomatic channels between India and Pakistan have been reopened,” said the Congress Party spokesman.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio statement The announcement of the ceasefire also said that the two countries also agreed to “start talks on a wide range of issues in a neutral site.” This Indians were caught by surprise.

Delhi refused to hold discussions with Islamabad, accusing her neighbor of supporting what she calls terrorism across the border.

Historically, India opposed any third -party mediation, quoting an agreement signed in 1972 after a war between the two countries before the year. According to the Simla agreement signed by the country’s leaders, “they decided to settle their differences by peaceful means through bilateral negotiations.”

Indian officials also argue that even when they reach an understanding with a civilian government in Pakistan, the country’s strong army has launched operations that undermine these deals. They refer to the Kargil War in 1999, when another conflict began between the two countries after a group of militants supported by Pakistan occupied the strategic areas in Kashmir Indian managers.

The conflict occurred months after the Hero and Pakistani prime ministers agreed to solve issues through bilateral negotiations and refrain from interfering in the internal issues of each other.

The government of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi did not officially respond to President Trump’s offer to mediate.

But Foreign Minister Superhamam Gaishhakar said: “India has constantly preserved a stable and unprecedented position against terrorism in all its forms and appearances. It will continue to do so.”

It is seen as an indication that India may not restart the direct binary conversations soon.

A different view of Pakistan.

“Pakistan has always wanted a third party’s mediation in the Kashmir case in the absence of mutual trust between the two countries,” said IMTIAZ Gul, Executive Director of Research and Security Studies in Islamabad, to the BBC.

“Now, the superpower is ready to install its neck. Pakistan will see this as a moral victory,” says Mr. Gul.

Pakistani strategic experts, such as Sayed Mohamed Ali, argue that because of India’s fixed refusal to interact with Pakistan, the international community should intervene to avoid any conflict in the future.

“Kashmir is one of the most important issues for the international community. The recent rapid escalation proves that soap fishing can go out of control,” Ali says.

The firm diplomacy in India, especially since Modi in 2014, is a sign of confidence as an increasing global economic power.

But he will have to start a difficult budget, to avoid Trump’s progress.

In recent years, the United States has destroyed as Blueck against the increasingly firm China. India is a major member of the Quarter Security Dialogue Group (Quad), along with the United States, Australia and Japan, which has been formed to counter Chinese expansion in the Indian Pacific Ocean.

In recent decades, Washington has also sold modern transport aircraft, helicopters and other military equipment to Delhi, which is keen to update its 1.4 million powerful army, which depends greatly on Russian weapons.

The previous American administrations were aware of India’s sensitivity to the Kashmir issue and largely moved away from intervention. But with Trump, there is a question mark about whether this situation is still existing.

The United States is the largest commercial partner of India, with bilateral trade reaches about 130 billion dollars (98 billion pounds) in 2024. The Moody government is currently negotiating a trade agreement with Washington to avoid customs tariffs.

Delhi will have to walk on a thin line. It would be repeated that Trump’s offer to mediate, a medium ceasefire in the United States, or “understanding” as it is called, and exceeds the current military tensions. But it is also eager to have a favorable trade relationship with the United States.

Any attempt to expand the conversations – about controversial bilateral issues such as the watership sharing treaty now or put Kashmir – will call strong criticism at the local level, a trap that Modi realizes well.