It was a miserable week for the United Kingdom

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British Prime Minister Kiir Starmer heads a round table with UK business leaders in Downing Street in London on April 3, 2025.

Bin Lumk By Reuters

Although it is not alone in the experience of bond market fluctuations this week – With the rise in global revenues between major economies While investors are concerned about the inflation path, the budget for yawning and increasing debt piles – the United Kingdom’s confidence due to concerns about the country’s details.

Doubts have left the ability of Finance Minister Rachel Reeves to budget budget and reduce the national deficit, which amounted to 4.8 % in 2024, in addition to the country’s debt pile of about 96 % of GDP, in the last reading in July.

Reeves is appointed to detect Next autumn budget On November 26, against a wider economic background of sticky inflation and dull growth that is a puzzle of England Bank.

Global bond yields settled on Thursday, with the return of the British doctrine for a period of 30 years by 5.582 %, starting at nine in the morning in London. Economists commented that it is not time to panic, so far, but they indicated that the UK faces some accurate challenges.

“It was a record version of Gilts this week, as the union increased from 8 billion pounds to 14 billion pounds, so there was a lot of offer. It is important not to look at Tuesday’s price procedures and definitely panic the investor radar,”

“People are concerned about the deficit. People are concerned about the political situation that we see now. It was expected that the UK budget in October was returned to November. This is also the meeting of the Bank of England very difficult, because the budget will come after the meeting (on November 6), and this is the full meeting of prediction.”

Inflation and the highest political instability of the global bond markets

Fabio Baloni, the European chief economist in HSBC, agreed that sticky inflation, Which rose to 3.8 % of expected in JulyHe puts a dilemma for England Bank.

“There are big concerns in the market, and I think it comes from a group of workers,” said Balloni.

“Basically, it is clear that some flexibility of inflation makes it difficult for central banks to reduce more, and more difficult in some judicial states, as in the United Kingdom, for example. (Bank of England) Andrew Billy reminded Andrew Billy yesterday that there may be no more discounts in the next Europe, at least next, because, of course, inflation was approaching 4 %.”

“After that, on the other hand, you have financial concerns, it is still a very large financial deficit, starting from the United Kingdom, for example, with a very difficult decision waving on the horizon of the government with the autumn budget.”

keep calm and carry on

UK’s treasury on Wednesday open Reeves will present government budget plans for 2026 on November 26. The increasing pressure to solve the financial puzzle faces spending, taxes and borrowing.

Reeves has already announced Plans to spend large tickets on national health services, defense and educationBut she pledged to borrow only for investment purposes, as daily spending was funded by tax receipts.

These financial rules, which have repeatedly said that they will not be broken, or leave an increase in taxes – or discounts in spending on social welfare – where the few options she left for her if they target a balanced budget by 2029/2030, as they promised previously.

Reeves has already conducted a tax raid on British companies, which means that workers, wealthy and banks can be on a hook, as the government is looking to raise revenues.

Some analysts warn of panic of borrowing costs in the UK and the upcoming budget, saying that the Gilles market cannot be judged in isolation from others.

Bill Blain, a strategic market expert and founder of London -based Wind Shift Capital, warned him, in him.Morning porridge“The newsletter on Thursday that” you cannot analyze the risks of the doctrine in the United Kingdom without taking into account the global image. “

“What are the increasing revenues in the global bond markets that warn them are an increasing threat of inflation. A fact accompanied by high debt loads (creates the risk of re -financing), geopolitical uncertainty, and high political instability (i.e. the difficulty in predicting politics, it is what is said.



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