It seems that Israel is ready to keep its forces in Lebanon after the deadline

Israel is scheduled to occupy parts of southern Lebanon after the end of the deadline for the full military withdrawal on Sunday, according to the Israeli government in a statement on Friday, amid Israeli concerns that Hezbollah is still active there and doubts about The ability of the Lebanese army to thwart the return of the militias.

According to the conditions a The truce between Israel and Hezbollah in late NovemberIt was supposed to withdraw the Israeli forces within 60 days from the Lebanese areas that they recently extracted from the group’s control. Hezbollah was also asked to withdraw from the region, which allowed the Lebanese army to confirm its control over the region controlled by Hezbollah, a Shiite force and a political movement backed by Iran, for a long time.

Less than two days before the deadline, the Benjamin Netanyahu office, the Israeli Prime Minister, announced that the withdrawal of Israel depends on the Lebanese army’s full control of the region, adding that the schedule was flexible and implicitly indicated that the Israeli forces remained. In Lebanon until the interruption.

“Since the ceasefire agreement was not fully implemented by Lebanon, the gradual withdrawal process will continue in light of the full cooperation with the United States,” said the statement issued by the Israeli Prime Minister’s office.

In response to a question about the clarification, the Prime Minister’s office refused to say whether this means that the Israeli forces will definitely remain in Lebanon after the deadline. But the Israeli leaders informed the American and French mediators that they wanted to keep some soldiers in southern Lebanon until Sunday, according to three officials familiar with the negotiations.

There was no immediate response from the Lebanese government. The Hezbollah media office said in a brief message that it is awaiting the reaction of the two countries supervising the ceasefire, the United States and France. In a longer statement issued on Thursday, Hezbollah said that any “violation” of the agreement will not be tolerated, because it will be “a flagrant violation of the agreement and an attack on Lebanese sovereignty and the beginning of a new chapter of the occupation.” “

Hezbollah officials did not respond to the accusations that Hezbollah failed to fulfill its obligations and that the Lebanese army has not yet controlled the area concerned. Its media relations office said that the group was “committed” on the terms of the ceasefire agreement, but it did not have further details.

Hezbollah called on the Lebanese government and international observers not to allow “any pretexts or excuses to prolong the occupation”, but he did not mention the measure that it will take if the Israeli forces remain.

Often two months after conflict, though Sometimes ViolationsHowever, the ghost of the renewed fighting waves on the horizon again, even if Hezbollah, the exhausted and exhausted party, is the same threat to Israel as was the case at the beginning of the war nearly sixteen months ago.

If the Israeli forces remain after the weekend without the blessing of Lebanon, Hezbollah will have to choose between accepting the current situation and losing face – or resuming the battle and risk by launching a major Israeli counter -attack that would lead to more damage to its destructive ranks and the Lebanese civil infrastructure. In the event of the resumption of the fighting, the Israeli Defense Minister, Yisrael Katz, warned that the Israeli strikes will no longer be separated between Hezbollah and the Lebanese state.

“It is a dangerous dilemma for Hezbollah,” said Nicholas Blancord, an analyst residing in Beirut at the Atlantic Council, an American research group. “They are cursed if they resisted and resisted if they do not do so. Hezbollah supporters will not thank the party for resuming the war when they try to return to their homes and start rebuilding.

Since November, Israel has transferred more than 100 military establishments and village to the Lebanese authorities, but it still occupies nearly 70 percent of the areas it seized after Lebanon’s invasion of last fall, according to Andrea Tentente, a spokesman for the United Nations Interim Force. In Lebanon (UNIFIL) for peacekeeping. Power in southern Lebanon.

Israeli officials say that the Lebanese army has not yet been prepared to fill the void in those areas, all of which are south of the Litani River. Mr. Tennte said that the Lebanese army is ready to do this, but he could not enter places that the Israeli army has not yet been empty.

In response to a request for comment, the Lebanese army indicated a public statement in which it said that it was “continuing to prepare to complete its spread in the southern Litani River area immediately after the Israeli enemy withdrew from it.”

In recent days, the Israeli forces do not seem to be preparing for a complete evacuation, according to an Israeli official and military officer who also spoke on the condition that their identity is not disclosed to speak more freely.

The deadline is an early dilemma for President Trump, who strongly supports Israel but carried his campaign on the basis of a promise to peace in Lebanon.

It is also a test for new Lebanon leaders. president Joseph Aoun And the Prime Minister in charge Nawaf SalamBoth, who were chosen this month, need a peaceful environment to rebuild Lebanon after years of war, political chaos and economic catastrophe.

Sanam Fakil, the executive director of Hezbollah, said that the new Lebanese leadership “has not yet proven enough that it could be a confident leader in the Hezbollah administration – a weak point, of course, Israel will continue to exploit it as a justification to stay after the deadline.” From the Middle East program in Chatham House, a London -based foreign affairs research group.

The current conflict began after Hamas, Hezbollah’s ally, attacked Israel on October 7, 2023, killing about 1,200 people and detaining about 250 hostages. The next day, Hezbollah began firing rockets on Israeli military sites in solidarity with Hamas, and Israel responded by firing missiles, which led to daily exchanges that led to the displacement of hundreds of thousands of civilians. Israeli and Lebanese Civilians and affected cities also side From the border.

The fighting escalated last summer after a missile from Lebanon killing A group of children and adolescents in a town subject to Israeli control. Israel Assassinate Most of the senior leaders of Hezbollah, Sharp increase Its bombing of Hezbollah’s strongholds and then launched an attack The wild invasion To southern Lebanon.

The Israeli attack I destroyed Entire neighborhoods, Displaced More than a million people kill several thousand, including many civilians.

The war also led to direct Confrontations Between Israel and Iran, the main supporter of Hezbollah.

Hezbollah and Iran, who were shocked and dispersed, were unable to prevent the collapse of the third member of their alliance, the Syrian government. Syrian President Bashar al -Assad was Overthrow By the rebels in December, which makes almost impossible for Iran to send weapons to Hezbollah across Syrian territory. And in Lebanon, the power of Hezbollah was FellThis led to the rise of Mr. Aoun and Mr. Salam, who promised to restore the cohesion and authority of the Lebanese state.

Israeli leaders secretly say that the presence of a stronger Lebanese government is in the interest of Israel, because it may lead to the curb of Hezbollah’s influence, which opposes the existence of Israel. Hezbollah was Founded in the eightiesPartially, in response to the former Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon, which continued until 2000. The militia weapon granted it a tremendous influence over Lebanese affairs, as some likened it to a state within the state. Now, the group is in its weakest decades.

But Israel is ready to stay inside Lebanon, which would weaken the authority of the new Lebanese leadership, as its officials claim that Hezbollah is still retaining the resources and ambition necessary to impose a threat to Israeli villages along the border.

The Lebanese army has spread in the main towns and villages in southern Lebanon in recent weeks, most of them in places close to the Mediterranean, in the southwest of the country. Specialized units have also been published to remove rubble, get rid of unexploded munitions and rebuild the roads that have been destroyed. Army officials say they worked in coordination with the ICRC supervising the ceasefire.

However, the Lebanese soldiers have not yet assumed responsibility for the border areas to the east, with the exception of the area surrounding the tents, a town in southeastern Lebanon, which was the scene of violent fighting during the war.

An Israeli military officer, who spoke, said, provided that his identity was not disclosed to speak more freely, that the Israeli army had not made any attempt to dismantle nearly six military bases built in recent months along a narrow strip, width less than a mile, north of Jerusalem. The Israeli -Lebanese border.

The officer said that the expectations between the soldiers on the front are that they will remain in their places in the foreseeable future to prevent Hezbollah from returning there.

Diana Ewza He contributed to the preparation of reports from Beirut, Lebanon; Jonatan Reese From Tel Aviv; And Christina Goldbum from Damascus, Syria.