Israel is achieving its goals in Iran – so far

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The author is the former head of MI6 and the UK ambassador to the United Nations

While the United States tends from the Middle East, the countries of the region are dealing with its security concerns on its own. Israel’s attack on Iran is the latest example.

It was a bold statement of the Israeli authority. Covering intelligence was unusual. Israel has identified Iranian leaders in their homes and killing them, and some with drones that were launched from inside Iran – resonated with what Ukraine recently achieved inside Russia.

To what extent has the nuclear program set will not be clear for a while. After they were struck once, the Israelis may have to return regularly to “mowing the grass” if the Iranians are making nuclear weapons. The strikes did not end and escalate to strike the oil infrastructure, bearing wider risks of Iranian revenge in the Gulf. But it seems that Israel is achieving its goals so far.

Iranian leaders only have themselves responsible for their predicament. They continued in a nuclear program that could only have a military purpose. They had weapons and financing the militias to cause problems for their enemies, and their lack of control of these groups led to Hamas’s attack on October 7, 2023, which was recovered against Iran’s interests.

All this at the expense of Iran’s development. People are proud, learners, and entrepreneurship feel frustrated by the extent of their Arab neighbors. For the Iranians, the Islamic revolution was a catastrophic failure.

Where does this go now? Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants to extend the Iranian regime. It is definitely fragile and very popular, so the possibility cannot be excluded. But when a country from outside is exposed, the population often meets around science and opposition groups, who are unable to exploit the moment of regime’s weakness. The real threat to the internal regime, in the streets of Iran’s cities. The invitations of an Israeli leader for the Iranian people to violate do not have little attractiveness when these people are bombed.

It is unlikely to support authoritarian friends in Iran, Russia and China, the regime if it begins to sway. Russia did so in Syria in 2015, which delayed the collapse of Assad’s rule by a decade. But even if it wanted to do so, Moscow may lack the ability to intervene now, given its extension in Ukraine. China is a friend in fair weather, buying Iranian oil and promising investment, but without any interest in attracting a security role in a distant country, as well as providing monitoring technology.

If the Islamic system decreases at some point, we will not expect a liberal government in support of the West. Without a good armed opposition inside the country, elements of the armed forces are placed in its position at the top in any battle for power. They will learn previous failures and may pose a lower threat abroad, but what are the limited freedoms in Iran may be more closed.

The alternative is a turning, as happened in Libya, Syria, Yemen and Somalia. In Iran, such a process will be much larger as the Kurds, the Arabs, the Baloch, and even the supplemen who return to ethnic nationalism in a country where the Persians are barely the majority of the population. One lesson in recent decades is that the fall of repressive systems does not always lead to a better result as no one holds it and terrorist groups will flourish in the non -advanced space. Iraq has finally appeared as a better place, but it took 20 years since Saddam Hussein was expelled, even with the huge oil wealth in the country.

What does the Israeli strike say about the American force? It is clear that the personal relationships between Netanyahu and President Donald Trump are not good. Trump wants to be a peacemaker and cut deals. Netanyahu is not an aid at any front. But the American support force of Israel came again as Trump has been calling for a time to negotiate an agreement with Tehran by Netanyahu. The Israelis feared the US-Eiraan deal half baked, and their military response may have helped Trump to avoid this dilemma.

The Saudis and other Gulf states will record this. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and his colleagues in the Trump court will continue without relying on him strongly. It is not only that Trump is unreliable, but America has larger fish to turn China. The Emile will continue from the security of the Middle East, which started during the era of Obama during the era of Trump and its successors as well. The area will fill the gap on its own.