Is the red card policy in Ivory Coast a goal for democracy after the Tijin Thaham banned

Even the stars international business profession cannot prepare you for the difficult facts of politics in Ivory Coast, where some people wonder about the democratic credentials of the most famous Western nation because it is a producer of Cocao in the world and some of the best football players.

This is the painful lesson Tidjane Thiam that he learns while waiting to see if making deals in the power paths and popular pressure from the street can save his attempt to become the head of Ivory Coast.

Unnecessary progress stopped towards the elections that were identified in October 22, when a judge spent that the 62 -year -old lost his Ivorian nationality by taking French citizenship before and not being canceled until it was too late to qualify to vote this year.

Returning to Ivory Coast in 2022 after more than two decades in global financial affairs, Thaham was immediately seen as a potential competitor to succeed the current head of state, Wattara, who was 83 years old, in the last year of his third term of his office.

A descendant of a traditional noble family And his great nephew of the founding president founding in the country, Felix Hofuit Boeni, was impressed as a senior government official and minister in the nineties, and supervises the development of infrastructure and radical economic reforms.

Then the Thiam military coup prompted the search for a new profession abroad, which reached its climax with high -level skills as CEO of the Giant PRUDENTIAL company in the United Kingdom and then the Credit Suisse.

But lasting home, three years ago, he began a steady progress towards the upcoming Ivorian presidential elections.

After the death of former President Henry Conan Bidi, a long -time leader of the opposition Democratic Party on Ivory Coast (PDCI), Thiam was in an ideal position to replace him, then on April 17 this year, he was chosen as a candidate for the next presidential race.

This was not a guarantee of a victory, especially if – as it seems that Ouattara is completely reasonable, he chooses to run for a fourth period, supported by all assets and premises and a four -year -old busy record of annual economic growth higher than 6 %.

However, Tham stood as a major alternative.

As an opponent of the ruling gathering of Houfhouëtists for democracy and peace (RHDP), Ivorian voters offered the opportunity to change their government.

However, through his moderate policies and solid technocratic adoption data, his candidacy has provided reassuring efficiency and the possibility of impressive economic progress made by Wattara since 2011.

Now the possible path has been banned. If the court’s decision stands – and the Ivorian law does not submit any option to appeal this particular case – it will be the second of the October Competition.

It is a race from which the convictions of the former court excluded three other prominent opposition figures – former President Laurent Gibagbo, former Prime Minister Guard Soro and a former minister, Charles Payli Judy – all central actors in political crises and civil conflicts that brutally paralyzed the Ivory Coast between 1999 and 2011.

The possibility now is that Outtara or any candidate behind the chosen RHDP will deal with the elections without facing any political challenge to heavy weight.

This can only deepen Ivorians already, already disappointed with the country’s political institution.

This is against the broader context of Africa in West Africa, where it finds the radical discourse to combat the policy of soldiers who seized power in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, a sympathetic audience among many young forbidden.

This really concerns societies, where three -quarters of the population usually are less than 35 years old.

Amid this crisis of democracy in West Africa, there were some moments of encouragement.

In Liberia in 2023 And in Senegal and Ghana last yearThe current governments were voted in free and fair elections whose results were accepted by all the contestants without controversy.

Senegalese result, in particular, Dias with a lot of severe hot mobilization for youth.

Many were hoping that the Ivory Coast would provide another positive example of democratic choice and the offer of change, for example it might be more influential because the country is a prosperous regional power.

It is the economic engine of the CFA FRANC, along with the cocoa industry, and it is also a major center for business services, financing and pioneering political voice in the regional group, the economic community in West African countries (ECOWAS).

What is happening in Ivory Coast is really important and is widely observed, all over West Africa, and also, all over Africa, Francophone in general.

Outtara is one of the most prominent statesmen on the continent, as it is widely respected at the international level as well.

However, the decisive presidential elections in the country are now in a return version of the identity policy that strained bitter conflicts and instability of the nineties.

At that time, the Bédié First governments and then the controversial “Ivoirité” were used, and this means “IVORAN-NSS” to close Outtara from standing on the presidency on the basis that his family had foreign origin.

Only in 2007, the government canceled the ban imposed on his candidacy and only in 2016 – when he was already in office – he finally ended a new constitution provided that the advertisers of the presidential candidates Idorians were born.

The toxic mobilization of identity issues was a major factor in civil wars, street violence, and the northern separatist division that brutally brutal Ivory Coast for more than a decade, until 2011, at the cost of thousands of lives.

Today the country is far from this conflict on a large scale.

There is no common appetite to return to confrontation and politicians remain out of the burning speech in the past.

But Thiam Saga explains how identity issues cannot weigh, even in a more legitimate form and in this most peaceful age, its weight significantly.

Ivory Coast only allows dual nationality under certain limited conditions.

Therefore, in its ruling on April 22, the Abidjan Court announced that, according to the conditions of the post-independence law that was used a little, it has been automatically, its IDF is almost four decades ago when he acquired French citizenship-after several years in Paris.

Although he officially surrendered that February, and thus automatically regained his original nationality, it was too late to include it in the voter’s record or qualified candidates for this year.

In vain, his lawyers argued that through his father, Tham had a French nationality from birth – which, if he accepted, would exempt him from a dual citizenship.

In an effort to highlight the absurdity and contradictions in the situation, he argued that, logically, the country must now hand over a football title in Africa for 2024 because many players have French nationality as well.

“If we apply the law the way they just applied to me, we must return the cup to Nigeria – because half of the team was not Evora,” He said to the BBC.

On Thursday, another setback can be brought in a limited hearing of the court, where the judge may now judge that Tham cannot, as non -national, lead PDCI.

The past two weeks have witnessed a continuous political and legal debate about this entire epic, with Thiam Camp hoped to lead a mixture of popular pressure and rapid political negotiation to a compromise that allows him to return to the presidential race, perhaps alongside other excluded competitors.

And Outara, if he chooses not to run, he may want to protect his impressive record and secure his international reputation by interfering with a kind of deal that allows Thiam to operate.

With months to go before opinion polls, there is still time. But no one depends on it.

Paul Melly is a consultant for the Africa program in Chatham House in London.