Is the next goal for Turkiye Israel in the Middle East? | Conflict news

Istanbul, Türkiye – Just hours after Israel She launched strikes Last week against Qatar-a “major ally other than NATO” identified by the United States and one of the nearest Gulf partners in Washington-pro-Israel commentators changed their attention to Turki.

In Washington, Michael Robin, an older colleague at the Institute of American Foundations, suggested that Toki could be the next goal for Israel and warned that he should not rely on his membership in NATO for protection.

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On social media, an Israeli academic and political figure Mayer Masseri published “Today Qatar, Türkiye tomorrow.” Ankara responded sharply. In an unusually harsh language, one of the senior advisers to President Tayyip Ardogan wrote: “To a Zionist dog Israel … Soon the world will find peace with the erasure of the map.”

For several months, the supportive media outlets escalated steadily against Turki, and visualized it as “the most dangerous enemy in Israel.”

Israeli commentators also framing a Turkish presence in the eastern Mediterranean as a “threat” and its role in rebuilding Syria after the war as a “new new threat.”

With the escalation of the Israeli regional aggression and its war on Gaza, no sign shows any sign of Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Vian revenge In August by suspending economic and trade relations with Israel.

“In Ankara, this (anti -Turkish) discourse is taken seriously, as Israel is seeking regional domination,” said Ozcizelik, a non -resident colleague in the Atlantic Council, to Al Jazerera.

“Turkiye is increasingly feeling that the Israeli aggression has no borders and has American support.”

The strikes on Qatar are likely to confirm Ankara’s doubts about US security guarantees as an ally of NATO. Although Doha’s private ally was with Washington, Israel has not faced any clear retreat from the United States, which led to questions about whether the United States will see any attack on Turki as an attack on itself, and the NATO Charter dictates.

Unlike many Arab countries, “Turkiye has long understood that it could not rely on the United States or NATO for its interests of national security,” said Ozkizilcik.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu himself is now increasingly proud of his country Regional expansion goals. In August, when he was asked if he believed in the idea of ​​”Greater Israel”, he replied, “Certainly.”

For Ankara, such a discourse is not only symbolic-but rather indicates an Israeli vision of dominance across the Middle East, and may collide face to face with the regional expectations of Turkiye.

On Sunday, Fidan Al-Jazeera told that the “Greater Israel” vision of Israel-which some of the Zionists believe in modern Syria, Lebanon, Egypt and Jordan-aim to “keep the countries in the region weak, ineffective, especially the departure of neighboring Israel.”

During the past few weeks alone, Israel – in addition to continuing it Genocide In Gaza and almost daily raids in the occupied West Bank-they also attacked Yemen and Syria, and they were accused of hitting the fleet of aid in Gaza in Tunisia.

On this background, Ozkizilcik pointed out that Turkiye and ISRAEL in “geopolitical competition”, adding that Israel’s actions have clashed with what the analyst sees as “a Turkish agenda with (central) countries” instead of decentralized countries where multiple forces can carry.

Regional domination

It seems that the Israeli is trying to become the only dominant force in the region confirmed in July when Tom Barak, the US ambassador to Turkey, a special envoy to Syria, has become amazing recognition: that Israel prefers the segmented and transferred Syria.

He said: “The strong national countries pose a threat-especially the Arab countries, (which) are a threat to Israel.”

The sub -text of Akara was clear: Israel believes that hegemony in the region should be safe.

Israel’s actions bear this. Syria has bombed dozens of times since December 8-when former President Bashar al-Assad fled to Moscow-and Hold the Syrian lands In immediate chaos.

He cut the head of a lot of Hezbollah leadership In 2024, parts of Lebanon are still operating despite the ceasefire, in an effort to weaken or destroy the group.

In June, Israel attacked Iran, which sparked a 12 -day war that struck Iranian military and nuclear facilities, killing senior leaders and nuclear scientists, and dragging in the United States.

The attacks not only aim to weaken defensive capabilities and nuclear capabilities in Tehran, but also to push Washington towards changing the regime, and targeting one of the strongest competitors of Israel in the region.

Israel may now consider that Turkiye is the following possible challenge to its regional domination, explaining its chest stance that Ankara will not be allowed to create new bases in Syria “that can threaten Israel” – as Netanyahu said previously.

“The first manifestation of Turkish -Israeli friction will likely appear on the Syrian front on the ground and air,” Kim Gordans, retired Turkish Admiral and architect warrant The doctrine of the blue homelandA marine strategy that calls on Turki to confirm its sovereignty and protect its interests across the surrounding seas – Aegean, east of the Mediterranean and the Black Sea.

“In parallel, it is seen that Israel’s military and intelligence imprint in Cyprus, tightly woven with Greece and the Greek Cypriot administration under American auspices, in Ankara is a deliberate attempt to break and contain the blue homeland,” said Gordans Al -Jazeera.

“For Ankara, this is not a defensive position by Israel, but rather an attacking strategy that can threaten both Turkish naval freedom and the security of the Turkish Cyprus,” he added, referring to Turkiye’s bonds to the declared Cyprus, which is recognized by Cyprus.

The division of Cyprus is a major source of discontent between Turki, Greece and Cyprus.

Reports that Cyprus received Israeli air defense systems last week is likely to cause an alert in Ankara.

Along with Syria, Israel did not hide that what Syria considered stable “can only be a federal” with “different independence.”

Turkiye, on the other hand, supports the new Syrian administration, which insists on a central and unit.

Currently, tensions between Israel and Turkey can be described as “controlled”, says Goghan Kenkara, director of the World and Regional Center at the University of Nesmkitin Euarakan in Turki.

“Nowadays, the most dangerous scenario for Turkiye will be an unlimited outbreak of conflict between groups in Syria. For this reason, Ankara is likely to advise the new Syrian administration to act with rational pragmatism,” said Cinkara Al Jazerera.

He added: “The lack of maturity in the security apparatus in Syria makes any possible clashes between groups more difficult, and the risks that turn them into lengthy ethnic and sectarian conflicts. In the short term, it seems that the adoption of a unitary model is difficult.”

Red lines and risks

For his part, Netanyahu pays for Syria the “Balkans”, divided into ethnic and religious lines, demanding Reducing a lot of southern SyriaOften the country’s population is inhabited.

This is a step, if implemented, it can light paper and requirements from members of other groups in the country, including the Kurds and Al -Alawit, for their releases specifically designed from actual self -government.

“Turkiye has clear red lines in Syria,” said Mora Nemitas, Director of Foreign Policy Research in Seta, a research reservoir in Ankara with close relations with the government.

“The United States and Israel’s attempt to reshape the regional system bear various risks and risks, and deepening the fragmentation in the Middle East,” Yeseltas told the island of the island.

In March, the most influential security research in Israel, the Institute of National Security Studies (INSS), published a piece that warned of the emerging peace process between Turkiye and the Kurdistan Labor Party (PKK)Who seeks to close a chapter on a four -year armed campaign against the Turkish state in a struggle to kill more than 40,000 people.

Inss warned that this “could weaken the ability of the Kurds in Syria to continue to work independently” and contribute to Ankara “to expand its influence in southern Syria, in a way that could increase the threat of Israeli work freedom.”

Israeli Minister of Defense, Israel Katz, explained that the newly occupied territories in southern Syria will be held “for an unlimited time.”

With the outbreak of Turkiye from the potential military bases in the province of the Sunnah of Syria and the main airport in Hamma province in coordination with the newly established Damascus government, Israel bombed the sites.

“If Tel Aviv continues on this path, the conflict between Ankara Will Apple will become inevitable. Turki cannot accept policies to perpetuate instability on its southern borders,” said Yahiltas.

But complete competition “is not inevitable” because both sides realize the costs of confrontation, especially given the economic bonding.

Craig, talking about the interests of Ankara in Syria, the eastern Mediterranean and the South Caucasus, said: “The threat of Israel to Turkish is not a traditional military aggression, but rather targeting Turkish interests through indirect means,” said Craig, talking about the interests of Ankara in Syria, the eastern Mediterranean and the South Caucasus.

Given Washington’s full and unconditional support for Netanyahu’s “reshaping” offer, Craig says that Ankara’s recipe is “enhancing strategic deterrence, especially through expanded air defense, missile systems and intelligence capabilities” avoid isolation. “

He added: “Ankara must realize that future flash points are likely to appear in the gray region – secret operations, air strikes, and proxy competition – more than official advertisements or diplomacy.”