Anz commodity analysts said on Monday morning that the struggle in the Middle East is now a “probably” scenario after the United States escalated during the weekend.
“The risk of disrupting the supply in the crude oil market has increased sharply after an escalation in the Israeli conflict,” wrote Daniel Heinz and Sony Kumari in the Australian lender, in a note.
They said: “The most likely scenario (we appreciate the possibility of 50 %) in our opinion is an extended struggle. This will witness that supplies are subjected to direct threat.”
“However, the oil market is better equipped to respond to that than it was in the past,” noting that OPEC has more than 6 mm of the day of the backup capacity that can be activated quickly.
They expected a range from $ 75 to $ 85 a barrel “for this scenario.”
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