Inside the calm transformation of the Trump administration on Ukraine

When the US Vice President JD Vance was asked about the war in Ukraine at a foreign policy forum in Washington last week, diplomats expected criticism similar to Maga Kiev and the veiled sympathy with Russia.

Instead, they heard something completely different. Vans said of a group of Russian proposals to finish conflict: “We think they are asking a lot.”

The attendees were surprised. Vans was one of the main heroes now in fame Confronting the oval office In February, when Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelinsky was accused of not showing enough gratitude to the United States for his support – a scene that seemed to be completely torn in relations between Kiev and Washington.

Vans’s comments were part of a noticeable shift in the Trump administration tone. American officials appear to be increasingly patience with Vladimir Putin, as doubts grow that the Russian leader is instead of ZelinskiIt may be the biggest obstacle to peace.

“The Americans had this simplified idea – let’s draw Russia, press Zelinsky, and we will make a deal,” said Wolfgang Eachnger, the former German ambassador to the United States, who made Vans to comment last week. “It turns out that just charming Russia is not enough.”

International efforts to end the war intensified in recent days. Based on the proposal of Putin, Russia and Ukraine are scheduled to be held Direct talks in Türkiye On Thursday – although it is unclear whether the Russian leader will attend personally.

On Tuesday, a White House official said that US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Trump envoy Steve Witkeov and Keith Keel will participate.

But Trump’s most desirable goal – the ceasefire that can lead to peace negotiations and end of war – has faded so far. Putin rejected international calls to stop the fighting, despite the threats of Western powers – including the United States – of difficult new sanctions.

Russia’s apparent stubbornness proves to be irritated TrumpSay the observers. “You hear frustration in his connection (” it may be understood that he has abandoned a lot and did not get anything in return. “

Indeed, according to one of the United States’ proposals last month to end the war, Washington expressed its willingness to recognize Russia’s rule over the Crimea – a privilege that angered Ukraine and the European Union, but was rejected by Putin.

Trump’s social media publications reflect his clear patience. In late April, after Russia fired rockets at the civilian regions of Ukraine, he said he believed that the Kremlin “was clicking” and threatened to impose secondary and banking sanctions on Moscow.

“Trump concludes that Putin is not a friend of the United States,” said Bill Taylor, who served as the American ambassador to Ukraine from 2006-2009. “There is confession that (he) should not be trusted … that he does not negotiate seriously.”

It has become increasingly difficult to blame the Ukrainians for the continued fighting. In recent weeks, Zelenskyy came out of his way to present itself as a cooperative partner, and our demands support us to a ceasefire. On Sunday, Putin’s proposal to direct conversations in Türkiye agreed after Trump urged him to accept it.

Relations between Kiev and Washington have wore a partially February oval office thanks to the metal deal that opens a way for joint investments in critical resources in Ukraine by the two countries.

Ukrainian officials say the agreement makes it likely that the United States will continue to support Ukraine’s defense. One of them said: “Now Trump has the skin in the game.”

But it is still unclear whether Trump has turned his sympathy for Ukraine – or is ready to punish Russia to restore the category.

While most Western leaders, and Kelog, the US special envoy to Ukraine, were criticizing Putin’s offer to direct conversations, saying that there should be first a ceasefire, Trump praised the Russian leader’s regulations, and praised a large day for Russia and Ukraine.

“Trump definitely sees Putin not playing the ball,” said Eric Green, a former assistant to President Joe Biden at the National Security Council, who is now a non -resident researcher in Carnegie for international tanks for thinking. “But I am not convinced that the result of this will be a significant pressure on Putin.”

Ishnger said he was “delighted” because Vans had turned to Russia and that American and European positions in the war in Ukraine were “converging.” But the former German ambassador to the United States added that the vice president “did not take the next logical step, which could have said that we now need to turn the bolts on Russia.”

However, other American politicians are keen to anxiety with Moscow. Senator Lindsey Graham, Trump’s ally, said he has the support of the two parties to a draft law that applies “bone crushing” sanctions to Russia, including a 500 percent tariff on imports from countries that buy oil and gas, if Putin does not start serious negotiations to end the war.

The bill has been supported by 72 Senate members – a sign that Ukraine’s support is still strong in Capitol Hill.

“These sanctions represent the viewpoint of the Senate that we see that the main basic man is Russia,” Graham told reporters late last month. He added that Putin “will make a big mistake in trying to play Trump.”

Experts say that Russia, in the meantime, is the one that loses US President its patience with the peace process. “Putin plays a long game and believes he has time on his side,” said McFul. “It is calculated that Trump will lose attention and that the Americans will cut military assistance, and this will make the Ukrainian army weaker,” said the former American ambassador to Russia.

Others believe that the danger of the American president, who is abandoning Ukraine, has decreased in recent weeks.

Thomas Graham, a distinguished colleague of the Council of Foreign Relations and a senior director of Russia at the National Security Council employees, said Trump will struggle to achieve one of his main goals – reset relations with Russia – without solving the problem of Ukraine first.

“There is a lot at stake,” he said. “Yes, he can still stay away from Ukraine – but if he does so, it will look like a failure.”

Participated in additional reports by Christopher Miller in Kyiv