India strikes – How will Pakistan respond? Four major questions

In a dramatic process overnight, India said it launched missile and air strikes in nine locations throughout Pakistan and Kashmir run by Pakistan, targeting what he called armed positions based on “trusted intelligence”.

The strikes, which lasts only 25 minutes between 01:05 and 01:30 India time (19:35 and 20:00 GMT on Tuesday), from shock across the region, with their residents wake up due to blogge explosions.

Pakistan said only six sites were wounded and claimed that they had shot down five Indian fighter planes and a drone – a claim that India did not confirm.

Islamabad said that 26 people were killed and injured in Indian air strikes and stigmatized through the LOC line – the realistic borders between India and Pakistan. Meanwhile, the India Army stated that 10 civilians were killed by the Pakistani shelling on its side from the realistic borders.

This sharp escalation comes after last month A grateful militant attack Tourists in Pahalgam in Kashmir are Indian managers, prompting tensions between nuclear armed competitors to dangerous new horizons. India says it has clear evidence linking terrorists in Pakistan and external actors to the attack – a demand for Pakistan categorically denying it. Islamabad also indicated that India has not provided any evidence to support its demand.

In 2016, after 19 Indian soldiers were killed in UriIndia launched “surgical strikes” via LOC.

In 2019, and BombingThat left 40 Indian semi -military employees, pushed Air raids depth in cut – The first such action in Pakistan since 1971 – which sparked reprisals and air battle.

Experts say the revenge against Paalgam’s attack highlights its broader range, and targets the infrastructure of three militant groups in Pakistan at the same time.

India says it struck nine militant goals across Pakistan and Kashmir, which is run by Pakistan, and has been struck in the depths of the main centers Lashkar-e- Typea (Leave), Army-HamadAnd Mujahideen Party.

Among the closest goals are two camps in Salkot, only 6-18 km from the border, according to an Indian spokesman.

India says, the deepest success, was the headquarters of Jaish-E-Mohammed in Bahawalpur, 100 km inside Pakistan. A spokesman for the Pakistan Kashmir said, linked to the recent attacks in Kashmir from the Indian director Kashmir.

Pakistan says six sites have been beaten, but denied allegations of terrorist camps.

“What is striking this time is the expansion of India’s goals beyond the previous patterns. Previously, strikes like Balkot focused on Kashmir Al-Madar Pakistan through the control line-military border.”

“This time, India struck Punjab in Pakistan, across the international border, targeting terrorist infrastructure, headquarters, and locations known in Phalapor and Moridic associated with Horman-this, this indicates that there is a large group of indication that there is a large group of reference to the gagger. He says.

The international borders in India and Pakistani are the officially recognized borders that separate the two countries, and extend from Gujarat to Jammu.

Ajay Bisaria, the former Indian High Commissioner of Pakistan, told BBC that what India did was “an excessive response response aimed at establishing deterrence and targeting well -known terrorist centers, but accompanied by a strong cirrhosis.”

“These strikes were more accurate, targeted and more clear than they were in the past. Therefore, (they) are less denying by Pakistan,” says Mr. Pesaria.

Indian sources say the strikes were aimed at “re -establishing deterrence.”

Professor Raghavan says: “The Indian government believes that the deterrence established in 2019 has been worn and must be re -established.”

“It seems that this reflects the doctrine of Israel that deterrence requires repeated periodic strikes. But if we assume that beating alone will deter terrorism, we risk granting Pakistan every incentive to take revenge – and this can quickly go out of control.”

Most experts agree that revenge on Pakistan is inevitable – and will play diplomacy.

“It is certain that Pakistan will come.” The challenge will be to manage the next level of escalation. This is where the crises diplomacy is concerned. “

“Pakistan will get advice to practice the evaluation. But the key will be diplomacy after the Pakistani response to ensure that both countries are not climbing quickly the escalation ladder.”

The experts of their based Pakistan, such as Ajaz Hussein, a Lahore -based political and military analyst, says Indian surgical strikes targeting sites such as Mureideic and Bah and Pour “is highly expected to given the prevailing tensions.”

Dr. Hussein believes that revenge strikes are likely.

“Given the media discourse of the Pakistani army and the science of determination to settle the degrees, the revenge act, perhaps in the form of surgical strikes across the border, appears to be probably in the coming days,” he told the BBC.

But Dr. Hussein worries that surgical strikes on both sides can “escalate to a limited traditional war.”

Christopher Clarri of the university in Albani in the United States, given the scope of India’s strikes, “visual damage to the main sites”, and the reported losses, is likely to be divided into Pakistan.

Clary, who studies South Asia’s policy, said, ”

“Given the declared objectives of India to the groups and facilities associated with terrorism and militancy in India, I think it is possible – but out of certainty – that Pakistan will limit itself to attacks on Indian military targets,” he said.

Despite the increasing tensions, some experts still have hope to cancel the escalation.

“There is a decent opportunity that escapes from this crisis with only one round of mutual confrontation and a period of growing shooting along the control line,” says Mr. Clardy.

However, the risk of increasing escalation is still high, which makes this crisis the “most serious” in India Pakistan since then 2002 – More risky than 2016 and 2019 confrontations, he adds.

Experts in Pakistan note that despite the lack of hysteria that leads to an India strike, the situation can turn quickly.

“We have a deeply broken political community, as Imran Khan prison resulted in strong general reactions against military control,” says Umeer Farook, a former analyst in Islamabad and a former correspondent of Jin Dev Wiki.

“Today, the Pakistani public is less eager to support the army compared to 2016 or 2019 – the usual wave of war hysteria is noticeably absent. But if public opinion turns in the center of Punjab where the anti -India feelings are more prevalent, we may see an increase in civil pressure on the army to take action.

Dr. Hussein repeats similar feelings.

“I think the current confrontation in India provides an opportunity for the Pakistani army to restore public support, especially from the urban middle classes that I recently criticized due to the perceived political intervention,” he says.

“The active defensive position of the army is already amplified through the prevailing social media and social media, as some ports claim that six or seven Indian planes were shot down.

“Although these claims call for independent verification, they are working to strengthen the image of the army between the audience segments that traditionally gather around national defense accounts in times of external threat.”

India again walks on a thin line between escalation and self -control.

Soon after the attack in Paalgam, India quickly took revenge by closing the main border crossing, the water participation treaty, expelling diplomats and stopping most visas to Pakistani citizens. The forces on both sides exchanged small weapons fire, and India banned all Pakistani aircraft from airspace, reflecting the previous step of Pakistan. In response, Pakistan suspended the peace treaty in 1972 and took its revenge measures.

This reflects India’s actions after the 2019 Poloa attack, when it quickly canceled the most intelligent Pakistan situation in Pakistan, imposed heavy tariffs, commercial ties and suspended main transportation.

The crisis escalated when India fired air strikes on Balkot, followed by Pakistani reprisals and seizure of Indian pilot Abnandan Verhamman, which increased tensions. However, diplomatic channels eventually resulted in the abolition of the escalation, with Pakistan’s firing a good -intention.

“India was ready to give old -class diplomacy another chance … with this, as India achieved a strategic and military goal, and Pakistan has claimed the idea of ​​victory for its home audience,” said Li Besaria last week.