India opposite Pakistan is also the United States against China when it comes to arms sales

The last time that India and Pakistan faced in a military confrontation, in 2019, US officials discovered a sufficient movement in the nuclear arsenal of both countries. Foreign Minister Mike Bombo woke up in the middle of the night. He worked on the phone “to persuade each side that the other was not preparing for the nuclear war,” he wrote in his memoirs.

This clash was quickly cooled after preliminary skirmishes. But after six years, they participated in South Asia again in the military conflict after a deadly terrorist attack against tourists in Kashmir, which is controlled by an Indian. This time there is a new element of uncertainty, as the most important military alliances in the region have been redrawn.

Changing patterns in the flow of new alignment weapons in this particularly volatile angle of Asia, where three nuclear powers – India, Pakistan and China stand close to discomfort.

India, which is a traditionally unlimited country that has eliminated its history of hesitation towards the United States, buys billions of dollars of equipment from the United States and other Western suppliers. At the same time, India sharply reduced the purchases of low -cost weapons from Russia, its ally in the Cold War era.

Pakistan, whose importance to the United States has declined since the end of the war in Afghanistan, has no longer bought American equipment that the United States once encouraged to obtain. Instead, Pakistan has turned into China for the vast majority of its military purchases.

Injecting these ties is the policy of the superpower in the longest and most complex conflict in South Asia.

The United States cultivated India as a partner in the face of China, while Beijing has deprived its investments in its invitation and care in Pakistan where India has become closer to the United States.

At the same time, relations between India and China have deteriorated in recent years due to competing regional claims, with clashes between armies sometimes. The relations between the two largest capabilities in the world, the United States and China, have struck Nader as President Trump launched a trade war against Beijing.

This combustible mixture explains how complex and chaotic alliances have become as if after the post -World War II was broken. The volatility is exacerbated by the history of South Asia for repeated military confrontations, with the armed forces on both sides exposed to errors, which increases the risk of escalation from control.

“The United States is now essential in India’s security interests, while China plays a growing role in Pakistan,” said Ashley Teleles, a former diplomat and a older -class colleague in the interest of international peace.

Since India is now taking military measures against Pakistan, it has made the United States more powerful than ever in recent years.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke from India with Mr. Trump and Vice President JD Vance in the first days after the terrorist attack on April 22 in Kashmir. Several New Delhi officials were seen the strong support expressed by Trump administration officials as a green light for India’s plan to take revenge on Pakistan, even if US officials urge restraint.

It was an indication of the changing dynamics, the clear absence of President Vladimir F. Putin from Russia, where Mr. Modi made calls from more than ten international leaders in the days after the terrorist attack. Officials said that the Russian Foreign Minister spoke with his Indian counterpart a week after the attack, and Mr. Modi and Mr. Putin recently spoke this week.

For its part, China led Pakistan’s general support, describing it as “an iron friend and a strategic cooperative partner in all weather conditions.”

These trends can be increasingly reflected in military conflicts.

“If you are considering the form of the future conflict between India and Pakistan, it appears that India is fighting with us and European platforms and Pakistan fighting with Chinese platforms,” ​​said Lindsay Ford, a former US defense official, who is currently a senior colleague of the American Observer Research Foundation. “Security partners close to both countries have developed significantly in the past decade.”

Until recent years, Cold War accounts have formed alliances in South Asia.

India, although it played a leading role in the unaccounted movement, has grown near the Soviet Union. Moscow weapons and ammunition formed nearly two thirds of the military equipment in India.

Pakistan, on the other hand, has firmly allied with the United States, becoming its frontal partner in helping to defeat the Soviets in Afghanistan. In the eighties of the last century, Pakistan took advantage of this relationship to enhance its arsenal, including obtaining dozens of f-16s, which helped get rid of the air hegemony enjoyed by India.

After the Cold War, both countries faced US sanctions to test nuclear weapons in the 1990s. For more than a decade, Pakistan has been refused to hand over dozens of F-16s that it paid.

But the country’s fortunes changed again after September 11, 2001, and attacks on New York and the Pentagon, as it once again became a partner on the front lines of the United States, this time in the war on terror.

Although Pakistan was accused of playing a double match, as Taliban leaders were accommodated on its soil while helping the American military presence in Afghanistan, the US military poured tens of billions of dollars in military aid. The United States has become the best resource in Pakistan weapons, while China remains second.

With the importance of Pakistan to the United States, it turned to China, which has long been offered open embrace.

Beijing, which was only 38 percent of Pakistan’s weapons in mid -2000, has provided about 80 percent over the past four years, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, which is closely considering global weapons flows.

At the same time, India has reduced its dependence on Russian weapons by more than half. Between 2006 and 2010, about 80 percent of the main weapons in India came from Russia. Over the past four years, this number has decreased to about 38 percent, with more than half of the Indian imports coming from the United States and allies such as France and Israel.

The field of one exclusion of Pakistan’s frost with the United States is the F-16 program. Pakistan has expanded the F-16 arsenal over the past two decades, and has paid the Biden administration through a contract worth about $ 400 million to serve and maintain combat aircraft.

In 2019, Pakistan used a Russian -made Indian plane. New Delhi protested that the procedure was a violation of the US Sales Agreement with Pakistan, on the pretext that it only allowed anti -terrorism tasks.

Some American officials seemed to be trying to throw India by indicating that they had warned about the Pakistani. But the American diplomatic cables have long shown that they knew Pakistan’s intention to build an air force: for the potential use of conflicts with India.

Saddam 2019 clashed – where a helicopter was dropped in India, dropping half of their members – She revealed her army problems. In the following years, India was flowing billions of dollars to modernize its forces. Since India is now facing Pakistan, the greatest threat, China, is not only seen, but also see its opponent.

For many American officials who have noticed the 2019 developments closely, human mistakes have made clear how the situation can escalate.

American officials are concerned that through excessive technology in both India and Pakistan, where two of the neighborhoods work well in the Air Airways Corridor and the midst of mutual doubt, even the smallest errors or bypassing requests can lead to a catastrophic escalation.

“The crisis that has air strikes across the border and an air battle, as we have seen in 2019, bears the risk of great escalation,” said Ms. Ford, a former US defense official. “This is the most problematic thing when two nuclear armed neighbors include.”

Salman Masoud and Kumar Day The reports contributed.