A woman looks at jewelry shown in a jewelry store.
Pankaj & Insy Shah Gulf Gety pictures
India’s exports to the United States will call for a 50 % sharp tariff on Wednesday, as US President Donald Trump is 25 % additional on the purchases of oil in New Delhi from Russia.
Analysts warn that the higher definitions in the United States significantly reduce the attractiveness of Indian exports to the United States, compared to regional peers.
“The attractiveness of India as a greatly emerging manufacturing center,” said Sheilan Shah, a chief economist in the emerging market at Economics, in a note when the fees were announced. It is estimated that the US spending pays about 2 % of GDP in India and that an additional 25 % tariff is “large enough for material effect.”
India is the United States as the largest individual export partner. Total goods exports reached about $ 434 billion in the year ending in March 2025, and about 20 %, or 86.51 billion dollars of goods It was shipped to the United States, according to the latest official data.
Shah said that the decline caused by exports due to customs tariffs means that the economy is growing by 6 % this year and next, instead of growth forecast by 7 % before Trump’s announcement.
The potential additional tariff can put 50 % on Indian products a total 0.6 percentage on GDP, according to Goldman Sachs estimates.
The main exports of India to the United States are engineering and electronic commodities, medicines, pharmaceutical preparations, precious stones and jewelry, according to government data.
With the noticeable variation in industries and lack of clarity on Trump’s plans with the tariff for the sector, here are slices that are likely to lose more based on its exposure to the United States market:
Engineering goods
Engineering goods, including products such as auto parts, energy equipment and industrial machinery, were the largest exports in India to the United States and the world, reaching approximately $ 117 billion in the ending year.
About 19.16 billion of these industrial goods, or about 16 %, have been sold to the United States during that period.
Export exports of iron, steel and other products that have been calculated 17.07 % of the total engineering exportsWhile non -iron exports and non -iron products contributed 10.52 %. Steel exports are already facing a 50 % sectoral tariff, which leads to poor expectations for the sector as the same tax on the horizon on other engineering goods.
India’s total exports jumped by 1.92 % in June, partially playing High engineering goodsWhich rose 1.35 % to 9.5 billion dollars.
Gemstones, jewelry, textiles and clothes
It is also expected that gemstones, jewelry, textile sectors and clothes will be threatened significantly due to the sudden rise in American definitions.
The gem and jewelry sector contributes 7 % of GDP in India About 5 million workers operate, according to the July report by the state -backed industry.
About 33 % of exports in India and jewelry exports went to the United States in the fiscal year 2025.
Rajish Mihata, CEO of Indian jewelry industry Rajesh, said in an interview with CNBC earlier this month that the higher definitions would be a “additional burden”, while calling for government support to the sector.
Textiles are among the most intense employment sectors in India, and directly use 45 million workers Throughout the country. Like gemstones and jewelry, about 34 % of textile exports went to the United States in the last fiscal year.
“Undoubtedly, the new tariff rate will seriously test the determination and flexibility of the fabric and clothing exporters in India because we will not enjoy an important differential feature against many other countries, with the exception of Bangladesh, with which we compete with a greater share of the American market.” July 30th statementBefore announcing his last duties.
Electronics
The electronics sector in India has relied on the United States for 38 % of its exports in the past fiscal year, making it the “most vulnerable” to the potential risks of customs tariff exemptions that are back down, according to Alexandra Hermann, the main economist in Oxford Economic. Currently, many electronic goods are exempt from definitions.
India exceeded China to become the first source Smartphones are sold in the United States In the second quarter, after Apple accelerated to transfer the collection of more iPhone devices to the Southern Asian state.
At one point, although it is temporary, Reaprive for companies such as Apple, in April, announced the exemption of smartphones, computers and other electronic commodities from definitions.
India’s exports in the United States of Electronic Commodities in India accelerated this year, and exported them in March only than twice as much to 2.76 billion dollars than the previous year.

pharmaceutical
While the pharmaceutical sector is currently exempt from definitions, Trump threatened the duties of the United States in an interview with CNBC Trump he said he would initially impose a “small tariff” on medicines, then raised this rate to 250 % in a few years.
India’s pharmaceutical sector has a great dependence on American buyers, as drugs and pharmaceutical exports reach the United States to more than $ 10.5 billion for the year ending in March 2025, where approximately 35 % of the total category shipments, according to official data.
Hermann said: “The chemicals (Indian) in general have somewhat fewer in the United States, but this hides the dependency of the high drug sector in the United States,” leaving the pharmaceutical sector very vulnerable to the potential definitions of Trump.
India has also exported steel and aluminum to the United States, but taxes are imposed on trade in these goods through a separate executive order.
General competitiveness
“The United States can easily ease a supply of alternative import sites, but it is difficult for India to diversify away from the United States across different sectors,” said Mufg’s leading economists.
India is competing against the likes of Europe in medicines; Vietnam and Mexico in electronics; Cambodia, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Vietnam in textiles; And Israel is in gemstones and jewelry, according to. “If these identification differences are obligated, it is possible that the competitiveness of export in India will erode over time,” he said.
Among the countries that depend on export and that led to the criticism of initial deals with Trump, Vietnam witnessed a decrease in its tariff to 20 % of 46 %. In the latest introductory modification, Trump also reduced the tariffs in Thailand to 19 % of the 36 % “mutual” tariff level, and Neldesh to 20 % of 35 % and Kambodia to 19 % of 36 %.
About 32 % of India’s exports to the United States is currently exempt from the customs tariff, according to MUFG estimates, including electronics and pharmaceutical products.
Ayushi Jindal from CNBC contributed to this story.
https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/image/108182779-1754546767992-gettyimages-56559852-EMR052RF.jpeg?v=1754548417&w=1920&h=1080
Source link