Immigration between Mexico and the United States: What to know

Crossings into the United States from Mexico fell sharply last year. But countries south of the US border are nervously waiting to see whether President-elect Donald J. Trump will order mass deportations.

The prospect of expelling millions of illegal immigrants – potentially the largest deportation program in American history – has sent shockwaves throughout Latin America and created confusion among immigrants and asylum seekers.

“We see dark times coming for the migrant community,” said Irino Mujica, Mexico director of People Without Borders, a transnational advocacy group. “Anyone who falls prey to the Trump administration will now be eaten up, chewed up, and spit out.”

What is the situation at the US-Mexico border?

Mr. Trump said Mexico was allowing an “invasion” of migrants into the United States. But the current situation on the ground tells a different story.

Illegal crossings at the US-Mexico border It has declined since JuneWhen President Biden He issued an executive order To prevent illegal immigrants from obtaining asylum at the border.

That month, U.S. Border Patrol officials recorded 130,415 immigration apprehensions — a sharp decline from the more than 170,710 recorded the previous month. The numbers were in November Even less: US officials registered 94,190 people.

This is a stark shift from a year ago. The number of illegal crossings for November 2023 rose to more than 242,300, a record at the time.

How did the United States and Mexico reduce crossings?

Critics, who argue that asylum is legal and a basic human right, say Biden’s move was a short-term solution to a complex issue.

As part of Mr. Biden’s order, restrictions will be lifted when the number of people trying to cross illegally each day falls below 1,500 for one week. This did not happen. But it has Border crossings were sharply dropped It allowed officials to deport those who could not prove they would be at risk if they returned to their countries.

Mexico has also cracked down on people heading to the US border.

I have Spread out National Guard troops to immigration checkpoints from north to south. Recently, the authorities transported migrants by buses Farther to the south To Mexico – in what officials and scholars call a migration spiral. They prevented them from doing so Jump on trains They headed north and broke up the convoys that no longer reached the American border.

In 2023, Mexico Stop issuing humanitarian cards Which allowed asylum seekers to study, work, and access basic services in Mexico. under By law, they are supposed to stay in the state where they are applying for asylum. But officials say many are using the cards to move north without being arrested.

As a result of the pause, from October 1 to December 26, 2024, Mexican security forces He saidIt detained more than 475,000 migrants, nearly 68 percent more than the number arrested during the same period in 2023. Government data displays.

What is the situation of migrants waiting in Mexico?

As Mexico’s strategy shifted, many migrants became stranded.

“By not giving them cards, they can no longer access public services or enter the legal market,” said Andres Ramirez Silva, who until September was head of the country’s Refugee Assistance Committee.

The situation is unbearable Advocacy groups warn. More migrants have become easy prey for organized crime groups that extort them.

“A lot of people continue to arrive” in Mexico, said Mauro Pérez Bravo, former president of the Citizens Council at the National Migration Institute. He added that they live in “precarious conditions”, working in low-paid jobs or sleeping in shelters, scrap yards, construction sites or on the street.

How is Mexico preparing for mass deportations?

The Mexican border states are working in coordination with the federal government to establish shelters to provide food and health services.

They made transportation arrangements for Mexicans who wished to return to their home states. In Tijuana, a border town south of San Diego, city officials are coordinating with churches, bus companies and humanitarian groups to prepare for the arrivals, said Jose Luis Perez Canchola, director of the city’s Office of Immigration Services.

He worries that mass deportations from the United States could further strain Tijuana’s resources for migrants, noting that many of them are likely to be unaccompanied minors or need medical care.

Maria Eugenia Campos, governor of Chihuahua state, which shares broad borders with Texas and New Mexico, said making sure people don’t stay too long in Mexican border cities like Ciudad Juarez is a key priority.

“The state of Chihuahua cannot become a haven” for migrants and deportees, she said.

Even this month, Mexico’s president, Claudia Sheinbaum, said the country would not accept foreign deportees. On Friday, she indicated otherwise.

“We will ask the United States that, to the extent possible, migrants who are not from Mexico can be sent to their countries of origin — and if not, we can cooperate through different mechanisms,” she told reporters, adding that her government had a “plan” without providing details.

Have the factors driving migration changed?

Not real.

About 392,000 Mexicans will be displaced as a result of conflict and violence in 2023, according to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Center, which collects data from federal governments. That was it The highest number since record keeping began In 2009.

The situation is somewhat similar in Central America. In some countries, criminal gangs and drug gangs have forced many to flee.

Honduras had more than 240,000 internally displaced by insecurity by the end of 2022, according to WHO estimates. Latest report By the International Organization for Migration.

In Guatemala, the factors driving people’s displacement – ​​inequality, poverty, climate change, economic instability, and violence – have not improved much despite the election of a new president, Bernardo Arevalo. An anti-corruption crusadesaid Araceli Martinez, a migration researcher at Universidad del Valle in Guatemala City.

She said: “We have a new government whose campaign proposed fundamental changes, but we still do not see direct results.”

However, the number of Guatemalans registered at the U.S.-Mexico border fell to nearly 8,000 in November from more than 20,000 in January 2024, when Mr. Arevalo took office, U.S. Border Patrol data show.

What is the situation elsewhere?

Venezuela and Cuba, which have faced harsh US sanctions, are likely to reject large numbers of deportation flights.

Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador signed asylum agreements with the first Trump administration to require people, mostly asylum seekers from Latin America, to first seek asylum in those three countries before applying in the United States, although this policy has not been implemented in Honduras and El Salvador.

the Most tangible decline That came against Trump’s pledge to mass deport from Honduran President Xiomara Castro, who said this month that bases housing US military forces would “lose every reason to be” in her country if he followed through on his promise.

In Guatemala, the government to reject As “false” reports about officials Open to receive deported foreigners.

In December Panama reported the migration of 4,849 people across the perilous Darien Gap – a stretch of jungle that has become Popular immigrant route – The lowest number in more than two years. Some experts See This is a potential sign of migrants Delay their plans Until after the election of Mr. Trump, as well as Panama’s efforts to limit it Undocumented immigration comes into effect.

“We cannot claim victory, but at the moment we are working to curb the flow of migrants – the numbers say so,” Javier Martinez Acha, Panama’s foreign minister, said in an interview.

In El Salvador, Trump may find an ally in President Nayib Bukele, who is close to members of the president-elect’s inner circle.

Bukele’s administration has not spoken publicly about the mass deportations. Asked about specific preparations for mass deportations, a worker at one of the call centers El Salvador set up to provide information to Salvadorans in the United States said: “We can’t get ahead of ourselves.”

Judy Garcia Contributed reporting from Guatemala City, Gabriel the Labrador From San Salvador and Mary shows me Xia From Panama City.