If Trump does what he would like, North America will change today

Definitions are now identified, such as the executioner, the ostracism. US President Donald Trump says he is falling on Saturday.

If the details of his plan are actually identical to the speech, it will not only change the economy, but the relationship between Canada and the United States, as it has evolved over multiple generations.

The president insists that he is moving forward with a 25 percent tax on Canada and Mexico, including a tariff for oil, albeit at a softer rate.

He says he broke him and does not look forward to negotiation.

“We are not looking for a privilege,” Trump told reporters at the Oval Office on Friday. “We’ll see what is happening.”

Expecting expected decrease in GDP, balloon deficit, debt

Again, we haven’t seen beautiful printing, but if it is consistent with his words, this will unleash the nightmare scenario that is waiting for the economy of Canada.

Former Parliamentary Budget official Kevin Beige displays a shrinkage in the 2009 Al -Rakoud neighborhood, somewhere between 2 to 2.5 percent in GDP, along with an enlarged national deficit.

But there is a greater story that is rewritten. It involves Canada’s place in the world after 90 years of increasing the linking of the United States if Trump is plowing forward, it will boycott more than a few decades of free trade and the United States in Canada; He ended a period of time extending for a longer period.

Canada and the United States have built economic ties with each other since 1935, as they faded from endless depression.

What are the past generations that were built

On November 18, 1935, New York Times I mentioned After a full year of negotiations, the two countries will remove hundreds of definitions and consumers who see that radio devices are cheaper, cars, clothes, fruits and vegetables.

Integration continued, though Transverse Disputes – With an automatic agreement in 1965Then the free trade agreement in 1987And more commercial agreements in 1994 and 2018 with Mexico.

Canada has just threw a lot with the United States in the emerging global re -ranking, with numerous recently Moves Which – which poisoning that it relationship With China, but it seems that securing a place inside the American tent.

The tall new commercial barrier means that there is no orbit. There is no tent. The Canadian scientist knows that it will be irreplaceable.

The geopolitical system is a long -term question. In the short term, there are salaries to earn it, and the jar to feed real estate mortgages and rent for payment.

Among all the pockets of the economy at risk of pain, a few danger faces greater than the export of Canada No. 2 to the United States – the auto sector.

Car industry warning from production lines

For repetition: We have not seen beautiful printing.

However, the customs tariff by 25 percent means that a rapid stop, equally with the first days of the epidemic and the blockade of truck drivers 2022.

“It will end up the closure of the industry throughout North America-during the week,” said Flavio Volby, head of the car parts lobby in Canada.

If you are looking for a silver lining, there is not much to continue.

You love enough, and you may see hidden signs on the slope in what Trump said on Friday. He was barely perceived, but when Trump was asked if he was still awake to negotiate, use words, “not now”, and “we will see what is happening.”

Trump’s stock market also sent a hidden message on Friday afternoon. Dow Jones decreased three quarters of one percent, which is a modest but sudden decrease.

If there are handrail competitions here, something that can praise Trump, it is the actual economy. Fear that the wound that has been infected can harm its general position. Because Congress will not prevent him, and it is likely that the courts will not be able to, According to experts in commercial law.

Then again, Trump insists that he is ready for some pain. He told reporters on Friday that he expects short -term disturbances as it is reshaving the economy.

And if he is deceived?

Even if Trump is retreating after a few days, it may hurt a temporary tariff. The companies will have heard a message from Washington loudly and clearly: Invest outside America for your responsibility.

This is actually Trump’s long commercial policy on steroids. It was adding the inability to predict to the border trade for years.

His allies Clear: If companies are concerned, they can simply transfer production to the United States, Trump’s goal. The inability to predict is an advantage, not a mistake.

This is why the New North America Trade Agreement has an uncertainty in it. The Trump team insisted once after the contract Re -negotiationAnd she welcomed less legal protection for Investors.

So in recent weeks, Canada has announced a large number of policies that must be addressed Drug gangs And migration across the border. Many members of the Trump team CelebrateWelcome to progress.

But there was Friday. In the Oval Office, he undertakes to adhere to something he loves, perhaps when it comes to public policy, the greatest love: definitions.

“It is one of the most beautiful words in the dictionary,” told reporters, on the eve of the executive measure that can reinstall the economic map of North America.

This Sunday, the examination is asked across the country:

What questions do you have about the customs tariff around us and how will they strike your pocket notebook? Fill This model It can appear in the width or read your comment on the air.