How to test the strategy of Russia, Salami NATO and the West

Russia Done -aircraft attacks are suspected In Poland, it is widely seen as part of the “Salami Sclicing” strategy designed to test West torque.

SALAMI-SCLING refers, from a geopolitical point of view, the process of taking a series of additional steps to enhance the strategic situation, without provoking a major counter-response.

Russian President Vladimir Putin It is said that he was repeating this tactic to investigate the NATO defensive alliance, where analysts point out violation From the airspace in Estonia, Quiet expansion From the borders of Russia to Georgia and The invasion of the Crimea Peninsula In 2014.

It is said that Moscow’s unprecedented violation of the Polish air field is another example that transcends Salami.

In the early hours of Wednesday, Poland He said Its aircraft and NATO have defended to land some of the 19 Russian aircraft, which entered into the airspace. It was the first such case since then Russia’s full invasion of Ukraine In February 2022.

Western allies quickly condemned what they described as a deliberate provocation, while the Russian Defense Ministry said it was not planning to attack any goals in Poland.

Meanwhile, the Kremlin said that he would not provide any additional comment on the situation, and reject the data of Poland and other European countries about the incursion of drones to an ally of NATO “nothing new.”

The Russian embassy in London and the Russian Foreign Ministry did not immediately respond to the CNBC request for comment.

Benjamin Godwin, a partner in the advisory risks of strategic intelligence, said it was quite clear that the Russian war games strategy is to push the West, test and test it.

Godwin said, part of the NATO problem is that it has long been clear that the defensive alliance does not want to enter into a direct conflict with Russia, which in turn created an asymmetric effect of Russia.

“We have seen inconsistencies, for example, in Estonian airspace, it is clear that this incursion into Poland (and) we have seen an electronic war throughout Europe,” Godwin told CNBC.Europe early editionFriday.

“Therefore, Russia is able to escalate in this, as we say in the United Kingdom, the peaceful nomination methods, and NATO has proven that it is not yet able to respond in any effective way to stop these efforts.”

NATO Secretary -General Mark Roti on Wednesday He said The full evaluation of the incubation of drones in Russia in Poland is continuing, adding that he is “really admired” how the allies respond.

Oksana Nechyporenko, an oldest non -resident colleague at the Eurasia Atlantic Center, to caution The West’s reaction should be softer to Russia’s violation of the Polish air field, the more difficult the next blow.

“The Ukrainians have said for years that Putin is not only launching the war against Ukraine, but against the West – in particular,” Nishberinko said.

She added, “He simply tests tactics, and always uses” Al Salami’s strategy “: He is trying to something impressive, and waiting for the reaction of the world, and if there is nothing, he pays more.”

US President Donald Trump On Wednesday, a mysterious response to the incursion of drones in Russia in Poland was presented this week.

“What does Russia violate the airspace of Poland with drones? Here we go!” Trump He said In a post on social media, without clarifying anything else.

The American President continued his comments on the social truth Tell journalists In the White House, Russia may have made a mistake.

“This could have been a mistake, but regardless of, I am not happy with anything related to this entire situation,” Trump said on Thursday.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk seemed to receive an exception from Trump’s latest statements. In social media mail“We also hope that the drone attack on Poland will be wrong. But it was not. We know that,” Task said on Friday.

Trump has Previously requested The European Union to strike China and India with a tariff of up to 100 % on Russian oil purchases for countries, seeking to cut a large source to finance revenues from the Putin War machine.