How the Israel war is developing Iran

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Unpredictable wars. Even the Israelis and the Iranians cannot know how their current conflict will end.

However, there are a number of analogues that must be taken into account. The first is the six -day war in 1967. The second is the 2003 Iraq war. The third scenario is a new type of conflict in which Iran uses unconventional means to respond to Israel and the West. This can turn into a hybrid war, which may involve terrorism or even weapons of mass destruction.

The Netanyahu government will love restart in 1967-where the Israeli preventive strike was destroyed by the Egyptian Air Force on the ground, in preparation for achieving a rapid victory over Egypt, Syria and Jordan.

It is certain that Israel has achieved quick and amazing early successes in this conflict. But the removal of the dispersed nuclear program from Iran, and many of it underground, is more complicated than destroying targets on the ground.

some CriticsIn particular in the United States, we fear that as a result we are witnessing the restart of the early stages of the 2003 Iraq war. This, too, was supposed to fight to prevent nuclear spread, with the background of the background of making a change in the system. After the initial success of the US -led coalition, it turned into a bloody swamp.

However, it is possible that the Israeli war, Iran, will follow its distinguished path. One scenario worries Western security officials involves an Iranian regime that decides to return through unconventional means.

As a senior policy maker says: “The reason that this has not yet turned into World War III is that Iran seems to have very limited means to respond traditionally.” Another senior official says that there may be restrictions on the ability of the Israeli government to continue to fight with this intensity because its country has a “depth of a limited magazine (weapons stocks, in non -Gargon).

If the Iranian regime believes it, however, it is due to a bad defeat in a traditional conflict, it will have a difficult choice. The situation can be accepted with submission and tries to negotiate its way out of trouble. Or it can escalate by unconventional means. This threshold is likely to be crossed if the regime believes that it is in a battle in order to stay and needs to show its strength to the Iranian people and the world. Anger and the desire for revenge should also not be reduced.

In Washington and Brussels, there are fears that if the Iranian regime is transferred, it may explode in despair.

In the recent past, the United States accused Iran is the presence of secret biological and chemical weapons programs. If these concerns are correct, Tehran may have a way to strike Israeli or American goals in a fatal, but they can be denied.

The International Atomic Energy Agency also reported that Iran has a large inventory of uranium, which is fertilized to 60 percent. It is generally believed that Tehran will need a 90 percent enrichment to make a nuclear weapon. This can be done within days – although weapons will take much longer.

However, arms experts indicate that it is actually possible to design a raw nuclear weapon with enriched uranium to 60 percent. David Albright and Sarah Burkhard, from the International Science and Security Institute, He writes “The level of enrichment of 60 percent is sufficient to create a relatively compressed nuclear explosion; no more enrichment is required to 80 or 90 percent.” This type of weapons will be suitable for “delivery by a crude connection system such as a plane, a shipping container or a truck, sufficient to establish Iran as a nuclear energy.”

Iran can choose to show a raw nuclear weapon to try to shock Israel to end the war. Another possibility is that it can actually lead to a “dirty bomb” – which uses traditional explosives to spread radioactive materials. This type of scenario that worries experts is the use of a ship to detonate a device near the Israeli port of Haifa.

These are the considerations weighing – not only by Israel but by the United States. It is generally believed that only America has strong bombs to get a chance to destroy the underground nuclear facility in Iran in Fordo.

There are many in Washington who believe (or their fear) that the United States will join the second stage of the bombing campaign, in an attempt to destroy Fordo and end the Iranian nuclear weapons program. But there will be no guarantee that even the American -led attack on Ford can achieve this. Ehud Barak, former Prime Minister of Israel, He writes“The truth is that even the Americans cannot delay Iran’s arrival in nuclear weapons in more than a few months.”

Barack argues that the only way to ensure that Iran does not go nuclear is for the United States and Israel “declaring the war against the regime itself until it is dropped.”

But Donald Trump has repeatedly pledged to be a peacemaker and called on Iran and Israel to conclude a deal. Only last month, he delivered a historic speech in Riyadh who Mockery The idea that strangers can make a positive change to the Middle East through strength. It will be the highest paradoxes – and a terrible political failure – if Trump finds himself in another war to change the regime in the Middle East.

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