How the fall climbing season became deadly in the Himalayas

Clear skies, calm winds and a panoramic view of the snow-capped Himalayan peaks – this is what autumn hikers on Mount Everest love to love.

But that seems to be changing.

Meteorologists say the monsoon now extends into the fall, traditionally the season for mountain tourism. During the end of the late monsoon, they have recorded at least one episode of heavy rainfall almost every year over the past decade, as mountain weather has become dangerous.

Last weekend, hundreds of tourists were stranded near the eastern side of Mount Everest for several days in freezing temperatures at an altitude of more than 4,900 meters (16,000 feet) due to a powerful snowstorm.

Chinese state media said nearly 600 hikers had been guided to safety by the end of Tuesday. One person died of hypothermia and altitude sickness, but reports indicate that the others are in good condition.

This was on the Tibetan side, but something similar happened on the Nepalese side, where a South Korean mountaineer died on Mera Peak.

The world discovered this much later, because communication lines were damaged by heavy rain and heavy snow. Officials estimate that landslides and flash floods in the country have killed about 60 people over the past week.

This is very unusual for October “when we expect the skies to remain clear,” said Retin Jangpo Sherpa, a mountain guide, adding that hikers have been increasingly exposed to unexpected harsh weather conditions in recent years.

Given that this is the preferred season, frequent storms like this have “hampered our trekking and mountaineering business,” he added.

The monsoon season in northern India and Nepal usually lasts from June to mid-September, but not anymore.

“Our data show that most years in the last decade have had monsoons that lasted until the second week of October, which is definitely a change,” said Archana Shrestha, deputy director general at Nepal’s Department of Hydrology and Meteorology.

Even more worrying is heavy rain and snow at the end of the season, as happened this time on October 4 and 5 – Ms Shreshtha described this pattern as “harmful rainfall in a short period of time”.

High in the Himalayas, such extreme weather means blizzards and blizzards, which pose a major risk to trekking, mountaineering and tourism.

That’s what happened last weekend when the weather suddenly changed – winds started blowing, temperatures dropped and visibility dropped dramatically.

The road that had conveniently brought hikers to what should have been a spectacular stopping point was now buried in snow and impossible to traverse.

On Mount Cho Oyu, another mountain located between China and Nepal, a team of climbers temporarily retreated to the 8,201-meter peak as snow fell relentlessly.

“They have returned now that the heavy snowfall has ended,” said Mingma Sherpa, the expedition organiser, whose team includes six members.

But for hikers trapped near the eastern face of Mount Everest, the return has been more difficult. some He told the BBC They suffered from hypothermia despite wearing warm clothes as they walked along the deep snow. Others said they did not sleep for fear of being buried in the snow that was falling so thickly that they spent most of their time removing it.

The matter could have ended tragically had it not been for well-coordinated rescue operations, with yaks and horses deployed to clear the snow.

However, one hiker, who has climbed these mountains more than a dozen times, told the BBC that he had “never seen weather like this before.”

Scientists say one big factor is the increased amount of moisture in the air due to global warming.

This has resulted in heavy rains over a short period of time, often after a long dry period – unlike the past when monsoon rains were spread evenly over four months.

“The weather at this time of year has changed every year in recent years, and we cannot promise anything to our customers,” said Pasang, a travel agent in Lhasa, the capital of Tibet.

“September and October used to be the peak season with nice weather but these days we see harsh weather suddenly and the temperature drops very quickly.”

Weather experts say the South Asian monsoon sometimes appears stronger because it increasingly comes into contact with another weather system, the Western Disturbance.

This is a low pressure system that originates in the Mediterranean region and moves east – it carries cold air that brings rain and sometimes snow to northern India, Pakistan and Nepal.

But when warmer and more humid air meet — which happens during the monsoon — the result can lead to more extreme weather.

Simply put, western disturbances could “effectively supercharge the monsoon,” Akshay Deoras, a weather scientist at the University of Reading in the United Kingdom, said.

The reason this happens so often is that these weather systems have traditionally been a winter phenomenon, arriving between December and March in northern India and the Himalayas.

But now, meteorologists say, they often arrive earlier, during the monsoon and fall.

Nepal Meteorological Department officials said the deluge of rain and snow in eastern Nepal, where Mount Everest is located, in early October was also due to western disturbances.

They added that the western disturbance fed a low-pressure system (part of the end of the monsoon) from the Bay of Bengal, pushing the clouds eastward when they should have actually been moving westward.

Scientists have also found that as the world warms, the increased interaction between westerly disturbances and monsoons leads to another unusual outcome.

The warm air is pushing the clouds upward, meaning these weather systems are now able to cross the Himalayas and reach Tibet and other areas that had never seen much rain before.

“A warm climate and the interaction between the westerly monsoon and the Indian monsoon are causing the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau to shift to a warm and humid climate,” notes a study published in the journal Nature in June.

The Tibetan Plateau has always been home to an arid climate. Scientists say warm and humid Tibet could mean unstable weather, frequent snowstorms and blizzards.

“What’s changed is the reliability of the patterns; we can’t assume that conditions will behave the same way from one season to the next,” said Logan Talbot, senior guide with Alpenglow Expeditions, which takes climbers to the Tibetan side of Mount Everest every year.

“This means that flexible scheduling, real-time decision-making and experienced leadership (in the Himalayas) has become even more important.”