How the background channels and American brokers pulled out the edge of the abyss

At a dramatic junction, US President Donald Trump moved to social media on Saturday to announce that India and Pakistan – after four days of tense clashes across the border – agreed to a “Full and immediate shooting.”

Experts say that the American intermediaries, along with diplomatic background channels and regional players, have proven that it is extremely important in withdrawing nuclear armed competitors from the edge of the abyss.

However, hours after the ceasefire, India and Pakistan were circulating The accusations of new violations – Emphasizing fragility.

India accused Pakistan of “repeated violations” while Pakistan insisted that it had been committed to a ceasefire, as its forces showed “responsibility and self -control.”

Before Trump’s announcement of the ceasefire, India and Pakistan were rising towards what many feared to become a complete struggle.

After a deadly attack, 26 tourists were killed in Kashmir, the Indian managers last month, India fired air strikes inside Pakistan and Pakistan run by the Kashmir run by Pakistan-which sparked days of the lists of air aspects and the artillery league, and by Saturday morning, accusing from both sides of the optical strikes.

The speech escalated sharply, as each country claimed that he had severely damaged while thwarting the attacks of the other.

Tanvi Madan, an older colleague at the Brookings Institute in Washington, DC, says that the call of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio to Pakistani army commander Asim Monir in 9 may “may have been the decisive point.”

She says: “There is still a lot that we do not know about the roles of various international actors, but it is clear during the past three days that at least three countries have been working to escalate – the United States, of course, but also the United Kingdom and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.”

Pakistani Foreign Minister Isaq told a Pakistani media house that “three dozens of countries” are involved in diplomacy – including Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the United States.

“One of the questions is whether this invitation had occurred early – immediately after the initial Indian strikes, when Pakistan was already claiming some Indian losses and was available outside the slope – it might prevented more escalation.”

This is not the first time that American mediation helps defuse the India and Pakistan crisis.

In his notes, Former US Secretary of State Mike Bombo claimed He woke up to talking to an unveiled “Indian counterpart”, and he was afraid that Pakistan would prepare for nuclear weapons during the 2019 confrontation.

The former Indian High Commissioner of Pakistan Ajay Besaria later wrote that Pompeo was exaggerated both the danger of nuclear escalation and the American role in calming the conflict.

But diplomats say that there is a doubt that the United States has played an important role in defusing the crisis this time.

“The United States was the most prominent external player. The last time, Pompeo claimed that it had avoided the nuclear war. Although it would likely exaggerate it, they played the basic diplomatic role, and Delhi’s sites may have amplified in Islamabad.”

However, at first, the United States looked remarkably.

With the outbreak of tensions, US Vice President JD Vance said on Thursday that the United States will not get involved in the war “None of our actions.”

He said in a television interview: “We cannot control these countries. Basically, India has its grip with Pakistan … America cannot tell the Indians of putting their arms. We cannot tell the Pakistanis of putting their arms. Therefore, we will continue to follow this thing through diplomatic channels.”

Meanwhile, President Trump said earlier this week: “I know both (India and Pakistan leaders) well, and I want to see them working abroad … I want to see them stop, and I hope they can stop now.”

“This is the only difference from previous occasions.

“The American role was a continuation of the previous patterns, but with one major difference – this time, they initially went on the hands, and watching the crisis was revealed instead of jumping immediately. Only when they saw how they were playing, they entered to manage it,” Mr. Haider told BBC.

Experts in Pakistan say with the deepening of the escalation cycle, Pakistan sent “double signals”, which is missing militarily while announcing a meeting of the National Command Authority (NCA) – a clear reminder of nuclear wandering.

NCA controls and makes operational decisions regarding nuclear weapons in Pakistan.

This was soon, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio intervened.

“The United States was indispensable. This result had not occurred without the efforts of the Secretary of Rubio,” Ashley J. J. Tellis, an older colleague in Carnegie International Peace, told the BBC.

What also helped is Washington’s deep relations with Delhi.

He presented the relationship of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi with Trump, as well as the broader strategic and economic risks to the United States, a diplomatic crane of the American administration to push both nuclear armed competitors towards canceling the escalation.

Indian diplomats see three main peace tracks that happened this time, as is the case after Poloama – Blackout in 2019:

• The pressure of the United States and the United Kingdom
• Saudi mediation, with the Saudi young foreign minister, visits both capitals
• India’s direct channel between National Security Advisors (NSAS)

Although global priorities and hands’ position were initially shift, the United States eventually interfered as an indispensable mediator among nuclear competitors in South Asia.

Whether it is by its officials or less than Delhi and Islamabad, experts believe that the role of the United States as a crisis manager is still vital – and complicated – as it was always.

However, doubts are still based on the duration of the ceasefire after the events of Saturday, as some Indian media have informed that they were mainly mediated by senior military officials in the two countries – not the United States.

“The ceasefire must be fragile. It came very quickly, amid high tensions in the sky. It seems that India has interpreted it differently from the United States and Pakistan,” Michael Kogman, an foreign policy analyst, told the BBC.

“Also, since it was hurriedly assembled, the agreement may lack the appropriate guarantees and assurances that one might need at such a tense moment.”