How many times have stocks ended October higher?

The stock market has had a great run, returning more than 35% since the April tariff sell-off. With these gains, it is not surprising that many are wondering whether the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones will continue their winning streak in October.

Investors have the right to be curious. October is a somewhat notorious month, as it is home to some very exciting sales.

For example, on October 19, 1987, the S&P 500 recorded a fearsome 20.5% sell-off in one day, and the benchmark index plunged more than 16% in October 2008 in the Great Recession.

Given the massive sell-off in the market, it’s no wonder investors are nervous as the calendar turns lower. Stocks fell on Friday, October 10, as the S&P 500 fell 2.7% — its biggest drop since April — on news that President Trump imposed an additional 100% tariff on China, resuming the trade war.

• 2024: -0.99%

• 2023: -2.20%

• 2022: 7.99%

• 2021: 6.91%

• 2020: -2.77%

Which brings us to today’s trivial question:

What percentage of Octobers since 1950 has the S&P 500 finished the month higher?

Choice 1: 43%

Choice 2: 59%

Choice 3: 67%

If you choose 59%, congratulations!

While October has a tendency for some notable drawdowns, it can often produce significant turning points in the market as losses pave the way for gains later in the year.

Overall, stock trader reports indicate that the S&P 500 has gained 59% of the time in October since 1950, achieving an average return of 0.9%. That’s good enough to rank as the seventh best month for S&P 500 returns.

However, returns are relatively tepid compared to other months such as November, which is historically the best month for the market. November was up 69% of the time, returning an average of 1.9%.

Of course, nothing is guaranteed in the market, and as we have all heard many times, the past does not guarantee the future.

October is a good time to buy

However, October’s historical returns suggest that if the market continues to decline, it may not last long, given that November, December, and January are typically strong months relative to the S&P 500’s historical returns. For this reason, a swoon in October is viewed by many as an opportunity to buy the dip.

While the odds favor weak buying in October, there are certainly headwinds that could impact stocks this time around.

The S&P 500 is arguably highly valued, given that the index’s price-to-earnings ratio (P/E ratio) is 22.8, a level that has historically preceded lackluster returns.

There is also a continuing risk that the escalation of the trade war with China could spill over, forcing investors to reconsider companies’ revenues and earnings growth. President Trump will likely use his 100% tariffs as a bargaining chip that can be removed if Chinese President Xi Jinping plays ball on rare earth exports. However, if the tit-for-tat tariffs prove to be long-lasting, we may see stocks lose more ground.

Finally, cracks in the economic armor are starting to appear, especially in the jobs data. The unemployment rate was 4.3% in AugustThis is the highest since 2021, and while we do not have data for September due to the closure in the capital, Bank of America ADP payroll data indicates that the jobs picture worsened last month.

However, this weakness is the primary reason the Fed cut interest rates in September by a quarter of a percentage point. The Fed is likely to cut interest rates by another quarter point on October 29. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s FedWatch tool currently puts the odds of a 0.25% reduction at 98%.

Lowering the interest rate would help borrowers and is generally good for corporate profits because it reduces interest payments. However, if these cuts are not enough, a slowing economy – and concerns before that happens – could act as severe headwinds to further gains.

Related: Read more:

This story was originally reported by The Street On October 11, 2025, he first appeared in Investment news and strategies to divide. Add TheStreet as Favorite source by clicking here.