How local knowledge helps Pakistan fight climate change | Climate crisis news

Skardu, Pakistan When Wasit Khan woke up to the sound of a strong explosion in the middle of the night, he thought that “the mountains exploded” and that a landslide was on its way.

Wasit, a shepherd from the Roshan Valley of Ghizer, in the mountainous Gilgit-Baltistan region of northern Pakistan, was accompanied by his family, taking his cattle to higher ground to graze during the warmer months.

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Soon after, as the family searched for immediate safety, he realized that the explosion was the sound of a glacier bursting. As the floodwaters washed away their temporary accommodation, the Wasitiyat thought about the villages in the water’s path.

At an altitude of more than 3,000 meters in the dark of night, it was impossible to get outside help. He immediately jumped across the rocks and reached a specific place where he could obtain mobile phone signals and alert the villagers, numbering about 300 people.

“Within 30 minutes, we received a phone call saying that the villagers had been safely evacuated and no lives were lost,” an intermediary told local media. “While they were safe, we had nothing left, not even a match to keep us warm near the glaciers. It was very cold and we were suffering.

“When we were rescued hours later and returned to the village, we discovered that all our homes and lands were covered in mud, but no lives were lost.”

Glacial lake outburst flooding (GLOF) is common in northern Pakistan, where there are an estimated 13,000 glaciers. As global warming worsens, the impact of more melting glaciers “is likely to be significant” this year, Pakistan’s Disaster Management Authority, NDMA, said in March.

In its latest assessment, the National Disaster Management Authority says snowfall across Pakistan in the coming months is expected to be below average, especially in areas such as Gilgit-Baltistan, reducing overall snow accumulation. It is feared that reduced snow cover will accelerate the retreat of glaciers by exposing ice early in the season, making high-altitude areas more vulnerable to global ice flows.

To prevent such incidents, the government relies primarily on early warning systems, which help reduce loss of life and injury, economic losses, protect critical infrastructure, and enhance resilience to climate change.

The early warning system works through an interconnected process consisting of sensors and measuring devices that collect real-time data monitored by meteorologists and experts to not only warn of a current danger, but also to predict a disaster. Dozens of early warning system sites across the most climate-vulnerable valleys in Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are currently transmitting real-time data to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.

“Human Early Warning Service”

But residents in northern Pakistan say they rely more on indigenous human knowledge rather than early warning system technology.

Muhammad Hussain, a shepherd in the Skardu Valley in Gilgit-Baltistan, told Al Jazeera about an incident that occurred inside his stone hut during the summer. After nearly an hour of rain, he witnessed strong lightning followed by an unusual roaring sound.

When he left the hut to collect his livestock, he saw a powerful flood carrying huge boulders and uprooting large trees. He acted quickly and alerted the villagers, ensuring their safe evacuation before the floodwaters arrived.

He recounted stories told by his grandfather that people relied on large gunfire signals, gunfire, or specific sound patterns to alert others. Natural signs such as sudden heavy rainfall, cloud formations, unusual animal behavior, and characteristic rumbling sounds are still used to predict flash floods in the absence of an early warning system.

In one incident, he tried to light a fire to alert the villagers below, but due to daylight and heavy rain, this was ineffective. Then he fired his gun three times, in a pre-agreed signal indicating danger. Villagers, who heard the gunfire, raised alarms over the mosque’s loudspeakers and began a quick evacuation.

Although there were significant economic losses, there were no casualties, demonstrating the effectiveness of the “human early warning system.”

Pakistan ranks among the ten most climate-vulnerable countries, even though it contributes less than 1% of global emissions. In 2023, Pakistan’s average temperature since the 1950s has risen by 1.3 degrees Celsius (2.34 degrees Fahrenheit), which is twice the speed of global change, the World Bank said.

The country’s climate change minister, Musadiq Malik He recently told Al Jazeera “When these (ice) floods hit, they cause widespread mortality, morbidity and displacement,” he added, adding, “It is a harsh reality that we face.” Pakistan faced nearly 90 such floods between 2019 and 2022.

“Technology alone will not save lives”

Despite millions being spent on early warning services and their implementation, there has been a widespread lack of confidence in them by a number of communities, due to frequent reports of faulty equipment and a lack of follow-up by relevant agencies.

“Despite the launch of the $37 million GLOF-II project in 2017, with new measuring devices, sirens and local training, there is no real-time link connecting human sensors in villages to official rescue teams,” a report published by Pakistan’s Friday Times newspaper in June this year said.

“Technology alone will not save lives if standard operating procedures remain buried, dust accumulates on rescue rosters, and trust is lost on the ground,” the report warned.

Some of the villagers Al Jazeera spoke to in Gilgit-Baltistan echoed this sentiment, speaking of distrusting the equipment, questioning its effectiveness, and expressing fears that the systems would not work. They also criticized officials for falsely taking credit for the system’s effectiveness in saving lives.

“Residents say the early warning system in Gilgit-Baltistan was installed without the trust of local authorities and communities, which is why they cannot play an effective role,” Zaki Abbas, an Islamabad-based journalist who writes about climate change, told Al Jazeera.

“Last year, a local activist told me that up to 20 systems had been installed in different locations, but they were not operational for various reasons. The debate over this issue has also been echoed in the legislature of Great Britain, where opposition leaders in the region recently called for an investigation into the failure of these systems. However, no such investigation has been ordered.

“Their ineffectiveness can be gauged by the fact that the warnings about GLOFs came from people, the latest being a shepherd whose timely appeal saved an entire village, rather than these systems on which billions of rupees were spent.”

Addressing challenges remains a task for the government and partners involved in implementing the early warning system. The UNDP said in February this year that “limited financial resources, technical capacities, data gaps and uncertainties, communication barriers, weak institutional capacities, and complex and evolving climate risks” are just some of the issues facing early warning services globally.

When Middleman and two other sheep herders from Ghizer were each awarded $28,000 in August by the Pakistani prime minister as a reward for saving hundreds of lives, they were told that “this act of bravery and responsibility will be written in words of gold.”

As unpredictable rainfall, snow patterns and melting glaciers continue to impact Pakistan, especially the northern regions, the population seems likely to rely on these “heroes” in the absence of widespread early warning services and community trust in them.

This story was produced in partnership with the Pulitzer Center.