How did Donald Trump change the ceasefire agreement in Gaza?

Steve Witkoff was just a spectator at the US Capitol when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed a joint session of Congress last July, an experience the real estate investor described as “epic” and “spiritual.”

Five months later, the Bronx-born businessman — with no experience in diplomacy — was in Israel as Donald Trump’s chosen Middle East envoy, cajoling and pressing Netanyahu to make concessions to end the devastating 15-month-old conflict. The war in Gaza.

After on-and-off talks, countless false surprises, and seemingly never-ending problems, the odds seemed stacked against a breakthrough before the end of Joe Biden’s term as president of the United States.

So it was interesting that when Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani finally announced in Doha that Israel and Hamas had agreed to a ceasefire — allowing the release of hostages held in the besieged Strip — Witkopf was present with the other mediators.

“What changed over the last eight months? It was Trump and Witkoff. The way Trump worked really showed the difference,” said one of the people familiar with the conversations.

the Deal structure — a multi-stage proposal that would eventually lead to peace and reconstruction — was first envisioned by mediators and publicly endorsed by Biden more than six months ago. But it was Trump’s approval that ultimately sealed the deal.

Trump has made a big issue The Middle East Peace during his election campaign and attacked Biden’s failure to secure a ceasefire; After the vote, he moved quickly to support his speech. Witkopf, his surprise appointment as Middle East envoy, was sent to Qatar on November 22 – less than three weeks after his election victory.

In Doha, Witkoff met with Sheikh Mohammed to get an update on the stalled negotiations and to understand why Qatar — which had grown frustrated with the warring parties over the lack of progress in the talks as well as the criticism it was facing for hosting Hamas — had suspended its role. As a mediator.

Then he headed to Tel Aviv to meet Netanyahu. It is not known whether Vitkov made any specific threats from Trump or made promises to Israel in the event of a deal — both trademarks of Trump’s diplomacy, which is equally unpredictable and transactional.

But the impact was clear: The next day, on November 24, Israel’s chief negotiator David Barnia, head of the Mossad spy agency, was traveling to meet Sheikh Mohammed in Vienna.

“That’s when things started, and the preparation was completely different on the Israeli side,” the person familiar with the talks said.

Witkoff, a close friend of Trump who is also known to Qatari officials through his real estate business, suddenly became the weathermaker in an unlikely negotiating team led by Biden’s top Middle East adviser Brett McGurk.

By directing their envoys to coordinate, both Biden and Trump temporarily put aside their violent personal and political rivalry — a small miracle in itself.

The challenge facing them was clear. Netanyahu has spent much of the past year circling Biden’s mediators, coming close several times to reaching an agreement before presenting new conditions, such as new demands including that Israeli forces remain in the Philadelphia Corridor, a strip of territory running along the Gaza Strip. Egyptian border.

Some Israeli security officials even accused Netanyahu of obstructing the process, but the Biden administration, at least publicly, has largely echoed Israel in blaming Hamas for the failure of the talks.

By this point, Israel had largely completed its battlefield objectives against Hamas: the militant group’s military capacity had been shattered and Israel had assassinated nearly all of the group’s senior leaders, including Yahya Sinwar, the mastermind of the October 7, 2023, attack.

The Biden team had long ago concluded that there would be no agreement as long as Sinwar remained alive. But even after Israel assassinated him in October, the Gaza talks remained stuck. Netanyahu has been publicly insisting that he would never agree to a permanent ceasefire in Gaza or withdraw Israeli forces from the blockaded enclave – and there has been no sign of him budging.

Trump’s election victory shook the Gaza talks and created a new reality: any deal agreed upon by Biden would be implemented by Trump.

In early December, Trump made clear that he wanted the conflict to be over by the time he took office in January, posting on his Social Truth platform: “If hostages are not released before January 20, 2025 “There will be a heavy price in the Middle East.” This post came shortly after Trump had dinner at his Mar-a-Lago club with Netanyahu’s wife, Sarah, and his son, Yair.

By mid-December, Biden’s national security adviser Jake Sullivan and McGurk traveled to Israel to make a final attempt to revive ceasefire talks in Gaza in exchange for hostages.

There were doubts that Netanyahu would wait to achieve victory for Trump, instead of Biden’s presidency, which had become a lame duck. The Israeli prime minister has also faced constant pressure from his far-right allies who have threatened to leave his ruling coalition if he agrees to a deal with Hamas or “surrenders” to the Palestinians – a factor he still supports. Struggling to manage After announcing the deal.

But people familiar with the talks said Witkoff was at several points unwilling to tolerate continued discussions. With Trump’s support, he was direct with Netanyahu about what should happen and provided assurances of strong American support for Israel, the sources said.

“He gives us a lot of authority to speak on his behalf, and he urges us to speak emphatically. “It means categorically: You better do this,” Witkoff told reporters in Palm Beach last week.

McGurk returned to the region in early January shortly after Hamas made a key concession: It agreed to a list of about 34 hostages to be released during the first phase of the deal, a senior administration official said.

But momentum in the talks is fading again. Witkopf returned to Doha to meet Sheikh Mohammed last weekend to discuss the obstacles, and it was agreed that Witkopf would put pressure on the Israelis while Qatar would put pressure on Hamas.

With McGurk’s approval, Vitkov returned to Israel to meet with Netanyahu — an unscheduled trip during the Sabbath, the Jewish day of rest.

Witkoff then joined McGurk and Barnea, Israel’s chief negotiator, in Doha, where they remained until the deal was completed. The conversations took place in Sheikh Mohammed’s office or residence, often lasting late into the night.

At some points, Hamas negotiators were in the same building, just one floor below.

Many in the Arab world and beyond believe that Biden has repeatedly failed to use his influence over Netanyahu to agree to a deal or rein in Israel’s ferocious assault on Gaza while standing firmly on the side of the Jewish state.

By contrast, when Vitkov got involved, the Israelis seemed more receptive. “He treated this as if he was trying to close a business deal,” the person familiar with the conversations said. “He applied the appropriate pressure. There is a feeling that when he met with the Israelis, there was progress.”

At first McGurk and Witkoff were in contact and simply briefing each other. But in the final stages of the talks, they decided it made sense for Witkopf to join the negotiations directly.

They knew that any breakthrough would depend on Netanyahu accepting critical points that had previously derailed the deal, such as where Israeli forces would redeploy in Gaza.

This is where Witkoff played his role, buoyed by Trump’s political influence. Netanyahu was aware that Trump, during his first term, implemented a series of pro-Israel policies that upended years of American policy in the Middle East.

“The only difference is Trump. Netanyahu wants an alliance with Trump. . . “They (the Americans) have made it clear that they want calm here,” said another person familiar with the talks.

Trump’s victory also motivated Qatar and Egypt to exert new pressure on Hamas.

“Trump’s influence was not just on Bibi, but also on Qatar and Egypt,” said Dennis Ross, a former Middle East peace negotiator who now works at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “They were counting on Hamas because they both had an interest in showing Trump: ‘Look what we did.’”

The ceasefire is now scheduled to go into effect on Sunday, when the first hostages will be released, the day before Trump’s inauguration on January 20.

Additional reporting by Neri Zilber in Tel Aviv

Cartography by Aditi Bhandari