How China beat Trump before the commercial battle started

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Rola Khaleda, FT editor, chooses her favorite stories in this weekly newsletter.

In the film worship Princess brideThe hero Westeli deceives an evil, physical, to kill himself in the battle of intelligence. Vizzzini has to choose between two cups of wine, one of which is pores. In fact, Westeli’s Cup was also poisoned, but they survived: He spent years building immunity for poison. With long and accurate preparation, Westel won the intelligence battle long before it started.

Alternative Xi Jinping in favor of Westley and Donald Trump for Physini, and the US -Chinese commercial conversations this week in London. They did not end in the United States lying dead on the ground, but not far. The sides agreed Vapor From cooperation, with the United States requesting a handshake to conclude the deal-Donald Trump’s activity, as it happensThe famous poor.

It is also not good in negotiation. Beijing is the clear winner of these early skirmishes. Trump has now raised most of the extraordinary punitive definitions he imposed on China since its inauguration. What this time has regained is China, which mysteriously promised to lift the restrictions imposed on the rare land exports that it imposed on April 4, and a large number of economic advisers Kevin Haysit.

As I am RecentlyIn April, China’s decision to cut exports of some rare ground minerals is a more surgical blow than previously ineffective excitement. Early restrictions in 2010 They are undermined By expanding mineral production outside China and through smuggling by miners and uncommon treatments.

The last round of restrictions focuses on the rare “heavy” earthly “heavy” ground elements such as Dysprosium, which has no large competitor producers outside China and whose price has been paid after the announcement of the controls. Since 2010, Beijing has severely reduced Wildcat Rare Earth production and smuggling. Production is dominated by a small number of state -controlled companies tightly, and the latest controls are imposed through a “double use” license for products used to manufacture defense. This makes it easier for power control authorities.

The Chinese state certainly has its own issues with governance and coordination. Rare land controls are trying to threaten the economies of Beijing to withdraw from the orbit of the United States. European car manufacturers have complained brilliantly.

The alienation of all rare land buyers is political is political, but China is somewhat distinguished between European and American companies. The Volkswagen Morda, which includes more than 30 factories in China, was among the first to have a license to buy a rare land. Beijing managed to scan the low tape of exceeding the efficiency of the Trump administration by a distance.

American weapons, although they are enormous, are difficult to target them accurately. Just as the UK was wrongly convinced that its trade deficit with the European Union gave it the supercit weapon of reaching the British consumer, Trump believed that the exorbitant customs tariff for Chinese imports would bring Beijing to the heel.

There is no doubt that China is weak, as it maintained dependence on demand abroad by adhering to the traditional growth model directed towards export. But the definitions that were not targeted by Trump means that American companies have risked the loss of the main industrial inputs, as well as the shelves that are likely to empty consumer goods.

As for the United States’ private attempts to use export controls to curl the Chinese economy, its tools have proven very easily. Joe Biden has used restrictions on American technology and external investment to slow the technological development of China in semiconductors and other sectors, and has turned to the allies to do the same.

It really didn’t work. China quickly developed its chips technology. Likewise, Trump’s recent restrictions are likely to be on Exporting chip programs The United States will be allowed to restore the lost land to China.

Trump’s attempt to fight on China’s land to control critical physical inputs by restricting ethane exports, a gas used in the chemical industry, is likely to be that damage town Companies And those allies. The United States still has some very strong weapons, such as restricting access to the global payment system of the dollar, but its wide use has not been tested.

Westley’s great account on Vizzzini is very really great for a cinema. If Trump wants to win the next round, he will have to evaluate munitions at his disposal and spread them more accurately. History does not indicate that this is a possible result.

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