The American housing market has made many surprises in recent years, but a few confusing, such as the data issued in August. According to new government numbers, new home sales have risen to 800,000 annual units last monthA sharp rise from 664,000 July, and above expectations of 650,000 consensus. As for the sector weighted in high mortgage rates, the ability to bear costs, and the refrigeration market, the number was so amazing that one of the main analysts called “unreasonable”.
Oliver Allen, chief American economist in macroeconomics, does not buy it. In a research note entitled New American homes sales: Outlook Grim, despite the unreasonable August jump in salesAllen says the data “challenge credibility” when it is set against the broader trends that make up housing. He also wondered whether the height of the title reflects precisely the basic demand, or is estimated to be reviewed in the coming months. Allen said her account as a 20.5 % jump, it “cannot be explained” that new homes sales will jump to the highest levels in more than three years suddenly.
When he was reached for comment, he told Allen luck Although discussions about the quality of American economic data “are clearly more prominent than usual this year”, giving President Trump’s fire to the head of the Labor Statistics Office, he does not see unreasonable August data that fits a larger style. “In general, economic data in the United States is very comprehensive, high quality, and statistical agencies are very clear and open about their methods.” However, he said that new home sales numbers are an American data chain “well towards the minimum quality spectrum”, and it is usually characterized by huge margins of error, important reviews, and high fluctuations. He said that the image of the new houses sales from the National Lengters of House Builders (NAHB) is usually “a more rational description of a possible direction.”
In fact, NAHB agreed to alan In response to August dataAnd if it is more restricted. The Chairman of the Board of Directors, Body Hughes, who is also a creator and home developer from Lexington, North Carolina, described it as a “great increase” and said that he “may undergo a descending review.” The association still expects a general improvement in sales in the coming months, with the support of somewhat mortgage rates. NAHB said that new homes sales were moved through the incentives of home builders, noting the recent survey data, which showed that 37 % of the builders reduced prices in August, and used 66 % of a type of sales incentive.
The opposite wind is still increasing
Under the surprise of the data, the structural forces carrying the housing market remain clear. The high mortgage rates, the availability of credit is more severe, and the increasing signs of weak labor market have narrowed the group of qualified buyers. At the same time, the supply of homes on the market continues to recover after years of scarcity, which increases competition for home builders that are already exposed to pressure to move stocks.
The inventory of the new homes is still historically high, as it has reached the highest point since 2016 as of June, according to Bank of America Institute. The new home supplies on that point rose to 9.8 months-the highest point since 2022. Reslub Co -founder Lance LambertWhich is closely followed by data versions from public home builders and collects their housing data, luck In July, the growing stock means that the home buyers were gaining influence.
The government report also showed a sharp monthly rise in the average selling price of a new family home. But Allen warns of reading too much in it, noting that the series has not been modified seasonal and vulnerable to volatility. On the basis of three months amended, the average price lasts in the low direction, indicating the appearance of discount pressure already.
Look at the biggest direction
Most economists now expect August sales to review much less. Pantheon is the total economy that the data will again return to a range of 650,000 in the coming months – which is less than that threshold – such as the challenges of supply and the ability to afford costs.
When it was reached for the comment, he told Lambert luck He largely agreed with Allen regarding August data, saying that the data “seems to be suspicious,” noting what the public homes and data collected by Resiclub. “Most monthly reports in the field of building home have a mistake from 10 % to 20 %,” Lambert said. “Often it ends up that one large one -month fluctuation in this data is the noise of the data. The best way to read this data is to take each individual monthly report with a grain of salt, miniaturization and direction.”
What is the trend? Lambert says he is noticing to the sun belt, which he called the “American House Building Center”. By agreeing on the NAHB poll, Lambert said that softening in the sun belt over the past year caused many home builders to provide larger incentives and even explicitly price discounts to prevent more severe decline in the sales of the new home. “New homes sales were moving sideways this year; however, if you peel onions, things are more distorted than the new home sales data address that they refer to.”
(This report was updated with additional comments from Oliver Allen from the Pantheon macro economy and to remove the inclusion that Lamce Lambert has seen any possible increase in activity as a result of the acquisition of home buyers in July.)
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