“Politics does not shake the tail – it shakes the entire dog.”
These powerful words from the wealth manager to CNBC last week pick up the first feverish half of trading. It also set the road for a second uninterrupted half, as it seems that the “geological economy” is to remain a dominant market force.
This week, he expected to return to monetary policy, as bankers from all over the world – who have kept their heads amid political tensions – are expected to speak at the European Central Bank Forum in Centra, Portugal.
First half report
Many have happened in the past six months, as they send commercial tensions and send stock markets all over the world.
The Vix Folatility Index – also known as the Wall Street Fear scale – in April as the tariff threats, followed by the customs tariff, caused huge fluctuations throughout the day through the main indicators. Meanwhile, the moments of the “black swan” in the Middle East kept investors on the edge of the abyss.
Dax vs. S & P 500
In the midst of each uncertainty, some stock markets showed remarkable flexibility: DAX remains in Germany in Europe, where more than 18 % increased so far this year, followed by FTSE 100 in London about 9 %, while CAC 40 is about 5 %.
But what does all this mean for trading in the second half of the year? Goldman Sachs warns that the high uncertainty in the policy associated with an increasingly micro background is likely to support high stock fluctuations in the coming months. “
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Central banks occupy the center of the lead in Sentra
While Goldman’s warning is loudly in investor ears, the theater was appointed to the central banks to return to the limelight.
This week, the Centra town of Portugal will host the annual European Central Bank forum, joining its European international counterparts to exchange views on current policy issues.
The sun may be shining in Portugal – but President Donald Trump Recent comments There is no doubt that he will give a shadow at the meeting, as he continues to exert unprecedented pressure on the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
Only last week, Trump Powell’s name increased, which recently raised the so -called Shadow Fed Chair“Whoever can monitor things until he takes over his chair next year.
Powell also pressed his peers in monetary policy, and called on central bankers to adhere until they saw the impact of commercial definitions: “We are in a good waiting position and learn more about the potential path of the economy before considering any amendments to our position on politics.”
Europe will need to determine how much the US approach allows the dictation of its policy, with the opening of European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde in Sirmra with a speech on Monday evening.
Expect a perforated tone. She has a conversation The opening in financial times She saw her calling on the euro to take advantage of the current environment and “gain global importance”.
The first year of work in power
Next Friday, the first anniversary of the UK Labor Party, after 14 years of conservative rule. The victory of my landslide He saw a cheerful work dating back to Downing Street with the promise of change and growth. But the honeymoon period was short -term.
Fast forward 12 months old and it appears that Prime Minister Kiir Starmer will reach his first year in his position with Approval reviews decreased Which was placed under the leaders of the competitors, including Nigel Farraj from the reform, the liberal democratic Sir Ed Davi and the conservative leader Kimi Badnoush.
Starmer faced a lot of external pressure, starting with a General spit with Elon Musk To a large number of foreign policy challenges in Ukraine and the Middle East. Even three commercial deals – with Europe, India and the first American agreement – did not do much to improve his popularity. But economic challenges at home cause more ridiculous, with Presse even from inside his party To review some reforms.
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