FY25 GDP growth by 6.5 %: The government is still confident of the momentum as the local demand is seen as remaining strong

The government is still confident of the prospects for growth and the revival of economic growth momentum in the fourth quarter of the fiscal year 2024-25, as well as the following finances, despite the ongoing external uncertainty and is expected to fully revive the domestic urban demand and the continuous strong rural demand.

According to the second prior estimates of the national income issued on Friday, the Indian economy is seen by 6.5 % in the 25th fiscal year, which is better than the first advanced estimates that link GDP by 6.4 %. It is estimated that the gross domestic product grows by 6.2 % in the third quarter of the financial, and the growth estimate of the second quarter of the fiscal year has been reviewed to 5.8 % of 5.4 % earlier. However, the growth of the first quarter of the bottom has been revised by 20 basis points to 6.5 % of the previous estimate of 6.7 %.

Analysts have noted that, given the current estimates, the growth of GDP in the fourth quarter of the fiscal year should be in the range of 7.6 %, as many are called very optimistic.

However, the chief economic advisor against Anantha Nageswaran highlighted that there is wide growth in the third quarter of the financial demand led by domestic demand and exports, and this is likely to continue to move forward.

He told reporters at a press conference after the launch of the data: “Despite the incredible growth expectations, it is expected that the economic momentum in India will maintain strong rural demand and revive urban consumption.” He pointed out that the strong production of the sheep and the sowing of my Lord is better, in addition to the high tank levels and the correction of the seasonal winter in the prices of vegetables, and indicated well to infiltrate food forward.

He pointed out that the tax cuts announced in the Federation’s budget 2025-26 for the middle class will help contribute to the total demand. Moreover, GDP growth will also help in the fourth quarter through higher final consumption expenditures due to travel and spending related to Maha Kumbh, where millions of Indians went. While he said it would be difficult to determine the effect of this, CEA noted that it would have a “great impact on consumption expenses in the fourth quarter of the fiscal year.”

The growth of the final consumption is estimated at 6.9 % in the third quarter of the fiscal year, compared to 5.9 % in the second quarter, while governmental consumption expenditures were at five quarters of 8.3 % in the third quarter of the fiscal year from 3.8 % in the previous quarter.

However, most analysts expect that GDP growth will be less than 7.6 % in the fourth quarter of the fiscal year. “.. GDP is implicitly estimated to grow by 7.6 % in Q4 FY2025. This, as we believe, on the highest side, given the global doubts surrounding goods exports and commodity prices, which would affect corporate margins, as well as wrong publications such as electricity and coal for January 2025,” said Adity Nayyar, head of economics, head of research, timing, timing, and timing, and timing, timing, timing, timing, timing, timing, timing Ikra.

The agency expects the printing of GDP Q4 by 6.5-6.9 %, led by government spending and rural consumption. As a result, for the 2015 fiscal year for the entire year, we expect GDP growth by 6.3 % compared to the second prior estimate by 6.5 %.

Pararas Jassra, chief economist in India’s evaluation and research, said that the possibility of achieving 7 % in addition to growth in the fourth quarter is 25, it seems difficult, especially in the current turn that is marred by renewable geopolitical risks that may keep the demand for investment by players in waiting for waiting. “Positive news was moderate inflation, which is expected to decrease to 4.5 % in 4QFY25. This would provide a batch of real wages and thus demand for consumption.

However, Rajani Sinha, Careedge, said that the agency expects 7 % GDP growth in the fourth quarter of FY25 and 6.7 % for the 26th fiscal year. “Factors such as rural demand, decreased tax burden, policy price discounts, low food hypertrophy, recovery in capitalist spending improved economic activity. She said that the celebrations amid the MAAA-KumbH celebrations in the fourth quarter should support the demand for consumption and sectors such as trade, hotels and transportation, “adding that the continuous recovery in consumption will be very important to push a significant increase in CAPEX for companies. However, the high uncertainty in global politics, especially on the trade front, geopolitical tensions, and weather events, are still monitable.

Nageswaraan also highlighted that global economic expectations in the near -term are affected by the commercial policies of the main economists amid slowing inflation. “These policies may nourish inflation, lead to more strict financial conditions, increase volatility,” and caution.

He said that the additional challenges include developments such as the power of the US dollar and the high Japanese interest rates that can exacerbate the external flow of capital from emerging markets, increase risk installments and increase external risks.