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France is preparing for more political and economic turmoil, as Prime Minister Francois Payro and his minority government are likely to fall into confidence vote later on Monday.
Bayro is unlikely to get the necessary voices to win the movement, which he called after he struggled to persuade political opponents to support his budget for 2026, which depicted about 44 billion euros ($ 51.3 billion) in discounts.
The goal was to reduce France’s budget deficit from 5.8 % of GDP (GDP) in 2024 to 4.6 % in 2026 – a level that still exceeds the rules of the European Union for its members.
If Bayro and his minority government do not win the vote, The government will collapse Less than a year after the short -term Michelle Barnier administration collapsed last December.
This is likely to be from the financial markets: the return of France’s bonds increased for 30 years last week-along with borrowing costs for other major economies-before the decline. On Monday morning, the return on France’s support for 30 years was 4.35 %, while the return over 10 years was 3.43 %.
If the Payro administration falls, French President Emmanuel Macron will have to choose the fifth prime minister in less than two years. Macron assembled the blame for the current France crisis, following the sudden parliament elections that he launched last year.
This vote was supposed to provide more clarity over the balance of power in the government, but instead strengthened more fissure and division, with the parties in both the left -wing and right -wing tours of the elections. These feelings of anger have become more firm because Macron has placed moderate allies responsible for sick minority governments since the vote.
The competing parties on the left (the new front coalition) and the oath (the National Assembly) said that they will not support the Bayro government after long arguments about the budget, the proposed spending cuts, the tax rise and its proposed freezing on public spending. A proposal to cut two public leave in France It also decreased badly.

Bayro put a confidence vote on Monday as an existential alarm to France, and BFMTV told the situation that the situation was “dangerous and urgent.
Jean -Claude Trechit, a former governor of the Bank of France, told CNBC on Monday that Paris is facing “a mixture of difficult situation in terms of financial balance and a very difficult situation, politically.”
“I understand that the Prime Minister wanted to put all political parties in front of their responsibility in terms of their demand to admit that there is a problem … Unfortunately, for political reasons, the extreme and left right, including the Socialist Party, decided that it is not their political interest to play the game of continuing with Bayrou.”
“You can already think that Bayro was not (the longest) Prime Minister.”
It is scheduled to vote on Monday afternoon, with a result of 5 pm local time.
Arthur Dilabort, a member of the Socialist Party, who initially presented his support to Petro, said, but the opposite of that position since then, said that his party could not support the “blind” vote and that the government has proposed a lot of budget cuts, very quickly.

((Bayro) suggested many cuts, and many discounts on public services, pensions and social benefits, and it is unacceptable. Today we are social anger against the government, and we believe that this is important to take into account, and this has not seen Bayro, “
What happens after that?
While economists and geopolitical analysts see Bayro’s defeat as a given, “the most interesting is what happens after that,” said Deutsche Bank strategies in the comments via e -mail on Monday.
“President Macron is expected to nominate the new prime minister who can achieve the majority to pass the budget. This may require support for socialists in the center, as the right -wing National Popular Assembly called for early parliamentary elections.
Macron is seen as possible to appoint a successor to Peru as quickly as possible.
“At the beginning of last week, France’s financial situation was a real urgent issue for markets, as well as selling the doctrine market in the United Kingdom, but the American bond gathering took some of this.
Pascal Kagney, President of C4 Industries, told CNBC that political chaos in France will not be resolved in a comprehensive manner until there are new presidential elections, which are scheduled to take place in early 2027.
“The fact of the matter is that you got three (political) blocs and none of them (won) the elections … will not be resolved until the presidential elections,” Steve Sidgoyk of CNBC at the Ambrossi Forum on Friday said.

“We have to learn how to work together … and to obtain agreements to serve the country and reform quickly,” Kajni said.
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