Federal Reserve versions minutes from the May meeting

we Federal Reserve In their last meeting, officials have acknowledged that they may face “difficult bodies” in the coming months in the form of an increase in inflation in addition to high unemployment, which is a future view through concerns about the financial market fluctuations and the increasing employee warnings of the increasing risk of stagnation, according to vegetables from 6 to 7 May.

It is possible that the future look has been transformed since then after the president Donald Trump The decision is only one week after the meeting to postpone the intense import tariff, including a 145 % tax on goods from China, which was forced to increase bond yields, reduce stock prices, and expanded predictions of US economic shrinkage.

But the minutes issued on Wednesday still show policy makers in the Federal Reserve and employees who participated in a dependency discussion about the possible repercussions of the Trump administration policies that are still in a state of flow – with even the highest definitions that are suspended but not completely withdrawn.

Powell warns that the economy may face “show shocks” more frequently

The officials at the meeting indicated that the fluctuations in the bond markets in the weeks preceding the “required monitoring” as a potential risk of financial stability, and indicated that the change in the safe treasury position of the US dollar, as well as the returns of the increasing treasury bonds. Economy“

Federal reserve officials continue to cite the possibility of high inflation and high unemployment along as a danger that would leave them forced to determine whether priority will be given to combat inflation with the most compromise monetary policy or reduce interest rates to support growth and employment.

The Federal Reserve holds a fixed major interest rate amid economic uncertainty

“Almost all the participants were commented on the risk that inflation has proven to be more stable than expected,” as the economy was adapted to the highest import taxes proposed by the Trump administration.

The minutes said: “The participants note that the Federal Open Market Committee) may face difficult barters if inflation proves that it is more stable while expectations of growth and employment weaken.” “The participants agreed that the uncertainty about economic expectations has increased, which makes it appropriate to follow a cautious approach until the pure economic effects of the group of changes on government policies become more clear.”

Risks on both sides

probability High unemployment The highest inflation was determined in employees’ surroundings that expected a “significantly higher” inflation rate this year due to the impact of definitions and the labor market “expected to weaken significantly” with the high unemployment rate over full employment estimates by the end of this year and stay there for two years.

The Federal Reserve Governor warns the American deficit “non -sustainable” with weakening the demand for treasury bonds

The unemployment rate was 4.2 % as of April; Federal reserve officials are 4.6 % to represent a long -term sustainable level with fixed inflation in the central bank’s goal by 2 %.

Delay in the most aggressive definitions to be I was imposed on China Other countries have reduced many analysts from their recession, which nourish employees early in May has been considered “probably” their primary expectation of slow but continuous growth.

In theory, this harsh customs tariff is not suspended until July pending negotiations on final tax rates, as officials of the Federal Reserve and Executive Managers of Business in the Dark Business on the main aspects of the next economic scene left.

The uncertainty still felt today is also the word observation at the meeting in early May, when the Federal Reserve decided to keep the standard policy price fixed in the range of 4.25 % to 4.5 %. In a press conference after the meeting, the President of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell He pointed out that the central bank has been actually marginalized until the Trump administration ends in customs tariff plans and the influence on the economy becomes more clear, a view that Powell and other federal policies have repeated in weeks.

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The Federal Reserve meets from June 17 to 18, when the central bank issues new expectations from policy makers about their view of inflation, employment and economic growth in the coming months and years, and the expected interest rate that they feel will be appropriate.

In their meeting in a march, the average projection among policy makers was for discounts in interest rates at a quarter of points by the end of 2025.