Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell may disappoint Wall Street in Jackson Hall

The previous annual event was a chance for policy makers to stir up the upcoming price movements. Last year, Powell pointed to the axis of discounts, saying, “It is time to control policy” and that “my confidence has grown that inflation on a sustainable road to 2 %.”

Wall Street expects an overwhelming majority that the Fed will reduce interest resume rates In September, after stopping months with President Donald Trump’s tariff across the economy. This is that Trump and the White House have made a tremendous pressure on the Federal Reserve to alleviate, while a more protection ruler was named in the Governor Council.

But Powell may not fall hints this year.

For one reason, some analysts do not believe that the September prices in the bag are reduced because inflation remains 2 % higher than the Federal Reserve’s goal and returns up with a tariff tariff for rising pressure pressure.

At the same time, economists discuss whether job deterioration data is the result of this Weak demand for workers or poor supply. If the problem is the supply, the price cuts will increase inflation.

“The definitions are not equal and will continue to push inflation to the top in the coming months,” Michael Pears, Vice President of US Economists in Oxford, said in a memorandum on Friday. “It will be difficult for political makers to bother the effects of customs tariffs for a single -term inflationary pressure.”

Currently, it is believed that the Federal Reserve will remain suspended until December, but the weak job report in August will change its point of view.

The veteran in the market, Ed Yardini, maintained “unclear” expectations for this year, saying that the federal reserve will stop the discounts due to continuous inflation and the continued elasticity of the American economy.

As for Jackson Hall’s speech, I expected Yardini’s research on Sunday that Powell maintains his cards close to his jacket.

He said: “The possibilities are that it will be more than an owl – fiery and watch – either a falcon or a dove.” “In other words, he will say that the reduction of the prices of the Federal Reserve is possible at the September meeting, but the decisions of the Federal Reserve depend on data.”

Bank of America Likewise, he was skeptical of price discounts this year and indicated that Powell suggested in July that he would be comfortable with low job gains as long as the unemployment rate remains in a narrow range.

This scenario now seems to have become a reality, and Pova said that Powell Jackson Hall’s speech would give him an opportunity to “walk”.

“If Powell wants to tend to reduce September, it can say that the policy position is still appropriate given the data presented.” Of course, it may also reduce the reduction by saying it is appropriate to move to a less restricted political situation. ”

Wall Street has a full price in September so that any sign of investors should wait for a longer period, not only a severe mutation, but will feel like a high rate.

Breston Caldwell, the US chief economist in Morningsar, wrote on Tuesday that, given the time the market expects a reduction, “The delay in the discounts will make a little effective for monetary policy at this stage.”

“We do not think that Powell can be firmly directed towards mitigation.”

But even some economists who believe that the Federal Reserve will reduce next month that Powell will lead to his hand on Friday.

Jpmorgan said the tension in the dual mandate of the Federal Reserve Mourning between anti -inflation and increased employment to the maximum extent preferred by the latter.

Although the recent inflation data indicating that the customs tariff is more characterized by prices, the disappointing job report must tend to follow the prices next month.

“However, with the presence of many speakers in the Federal Reserve, they recently says that the discount case has not been made, and with more future recruitment data, we do not believe that Powell can firmly be directed to mitigate at the next meeting,” Jpmorgan said in a memo on Friday.

Andrew Holnenehst, the chief economist in City research, believes that Powell will believe that Powell will hint at a reduction, but will not go beyond that.

The hint can come in the form of a note stating that the risks of employment and inflation determine the budget. In July, Powell said if it is in a state of balance, the prices should be more neutral. Given that at the current rate level, it was “modest restriction”, indicating that the balanced risks will issue a discount.

Since then, job data shows that the labor market has eased, which allowed Powell to say that the risks are more balanced and that price cuts will be appropriate next month if this trend continues, as Hollenhurst wrote in Friday note.

He said: “We expect President Powell to confirm market prices to obtain a return to discounts in September, but they did not clearly commit to adherence to cutting this meeting.” “We do not expect to comment on the size of the cut, but it is safe to assume that the foundation condition at the present time is to reduce 25 basis points.”

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