Experts say the customs tariff that provokes a “re -equipment” boom can be a double -limited sword

The lack of skilled workers and high costs remains great Obstacle When companies return home, Bofa warns. Automation may be the key to canceling the lock.Re -equipment“It is possible that the slow productivity of American manufacturers will enhance without increasing the number of work useful.

Evidence of a slowdown in the sector in escalation, according to another a report From the Bank of America Institute. The new requests for strong manufactured commodities decreased in April, while the famous manufacturer manager indicated a contraction since March.

Focusing on small companies, Bofa’s internal customer data showed the growth of deposits from manufacturers as well.

“It is possible, true, that these (definitions) can support the momentum to move forward and may reflect some of this slowdown, Especially for some sub -sectors within the industry, ”said the author of the report, economist Bofa Taylor Polly, said, said. luck. “But the costs of definitions and employment issues exist.”

The re -preparation was all in anger In American companies, after Trump’s first trade war with China-Covid-19-witnessed high risks to global supply chains. At the same time, the flakes of the Biden era and the work of reducing inflation Backed Companies are ready to make semiconductor and clean energy technology in the United States

While the United States’ manufacturing represents only 8 % of the total employment, the re -manufacturing has established two million jobs in the past fifteen years, according to Mayo. Note From economists Bofa. They pointed out that half of these new positions were created in the past five years, although the trend has slowed since its peak in 2022.

in reconnaissance Of 56 analysts throughout the bank, they cover nearly 1,200 companies with a value of more than $ 38 trillion in the market, almost 60 % said production will continue to return to the United States – at least modestly – if the tariff remains high. Those who follow industries and manufacturing expect the biggest shift to the United States

We lack skilled workers

There are still obstacles to a return to the United States. In the Bofa poll, 54 % of analysts said that the issues that find skilled workers will be a major obstacle for companies.

Polly said that the high costs of employment are one of the main reasons that manufactures turned into the United States in the first place. While a 2024 survey From the Cato Institute, it was found that 80 % of Americans believe that the country will benefit from increased manufacturing employment, only a quarter Believe They will be better at work individually in the factory.

Bolly said that if companies are struggling to fill in positions, they are forced to know how to improve productivity without employing people.

“This is where this conversation comes about automation and productivity,” she said.

Two -thirds of the respondents in the BOFA survey said that any production of production to the United States will require much more automation than the marine factory. This makes the most advanced industries the best candidates to return to the United States, as economists in Bofa, such as assembling cars and upscale furniture. “Millions and millions of people who flow into small small screws to make iPhone devices”, as the Minister of Commerce, Howard Lootnick Proposal? not so a lot.

Meanwhile, Lottenic’s ability to continue Commercial deals may More important For small companies. It represents 98 % of American manufacturing, According to To the American small business administration, many depend on cheap imports.

“Many of them depend on a specific part – for example, to complete their manufacturing process – which is not locally made,” Polly said.

Therefore, for smaller manufacturers, the uncertainty in the customs tariff makes planning of capital expenses in particular difficult, even if their products become more competitive locally. With profit margins and productivity, other industries in the United States are lagging behind, passing prices for consumers is a clear response. However, if companies need to absorb some of the cost of retaining customers, as Polly said, which reduces stocks, operations or the number of employees from other potential options.

She said: “The reshaping of this aspect of the smaller companies is a type of sword with a limit.”

However, sales are expected to grow in the coming months. She added that companies may start to feel pressure, when stocks begin to decrease in the second half of the year.