European Union membership, seizure of Russia’s money to rebuild Ukraine: Analysts | Russia-Ukraine, news war

The negotiations that require the shooting between Russia and Ukraine may be ongoing soon, but the economic recovery of Ukraine will be strengthened unless the European Union is rapidly for membership of the war -torn country and provides hundreds of billions of insurance and investment in the euro.

“I think what Ukraine needs is a kind of future as it will have stable and motivated borders, and this will only come, with the membership of the European Union,” historian. Philips Operation The island said.

Last month, the American administration of President Donald Trump delivered Ukraine and Russia a suggestion for the ceasefire, which excluded NATO membership in the future in Ukraine, which led to the main request of Carmamin and the departure of Ukraine without the security guarantees it seeks.

“What is the work that will actually risk the participation of economic there?” He asked Operen. “With the NATO off the table, I think that if Ukraine will get a chance to rebuild and integrate it in Europe, it will have to be through the high European Union membership.”

This membership is not in any way, although the European Commission began negotiations in record time last June, and Ukraine has heavy weight support in the European Union such as France and Germany.

If Ukraine becomes a member of the European Union, it will continue to face a devastating economy that requires wide investments.

KYIV Economy College (KSE) estimated that between Russia’s extensive invasion in February 2022 and November last year, the Moscow attack destroyed the infrastructure of $ 170 billion, as the housing, transport and energy sectors were affected.

This number did not include the damage it incurred in nearly a decade of the war in the eastern regions of Luhansk and Donitsk since 2014 or the loss of 29 percent of the GDP of Ukraine (GDP) of the invasion in 2022.

This region contains approximately half of the unexploited metal wealth in Ukraine, at an estimated value of $ 12.4 trillion, according to SECDEV, a Canadian geopolitical risk company.

It also does not include some types of reconstruction costs, such as removal of chemical pollution and mine multiplication.

The World Bank has set the cost of infrastructure damage a little higher this year, at 176 billion dollars, and the cost of reconstruction and recovery is expected at about $ 525 billion over 10 years.

“The Kremlin certainly looted the occupied lands.”

The economic war has been part of Russia’s strategy since Donetsk and Luhansk invaded in 2014, said Maximilian Hess, risk analyst and Eurasian expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

“The Kremlin certainly looted occupied lands, including coal, agricultural products and iron,” Hess told Al -Jazeera.

KSE estimated that Russia stole half a million tons of grains, which are listed in the 1.9 billion dollar damage bill to the agricultural sector.

Using long -range missiles, Russia also targeted industrial centers that are not under its control.

Ukraine inherited a series of factories from the Soviet Union, including the Kharkiv Jarfa Factory, the Zaporizhia Motor Factory, the PIVDENMASH ROCKET company in Dnipro and Massive Steel.

“All were targeted by the Russian forces,” he wrote in his last book. “Russia’s attacks, of course, were aimed primarily to destroy the Ukrainian economy and weaken its capacity and the will to fight, but it raised the cost to the West from Ukraine’s support in the conflict, something that the Kremlin hoped to lead to low support to Kev.”

Through occupation and targeting, Russia was able to deprive Ukraine of the booming mineral sector.

According to the United States’s geological survey, mineral production decreased by 66.5 percent as a result of the war.

This is an extensive loss, given that Ukraine once produced nearly a third of iron ore in Europe, Russia and central Eurasia, half of the manganese ore in the region and a third of titanium. The only product of uranium remains in Europe, and it is an important resource in the continent’s pursuit of greater Energy independence.

Ukraine’s demands to build a defensive industrial base of $ 20 billion by assisting the allies, a rare economic success story in wartime.

“Only in different regions of the country on which these mining and minerals focus on. (Metal activities) is enhanced in places like Kryvyi Rih, Dnipro and Zaporizhi, preferably liberated at the end of Russian professions,” said Hess, said, “

Trump metal deal, and other tools

Weeks ago, Ukraine and the United States Fell An intention to use metal wealth in Ukraine jointly.

Ukraine committed to putting half of the returns from its metal activities in a reconstruction box, but experts questioned the idea that mineral wealth can rebuild Ukraine.

“Projects have a long launch period … from five to 10 years,” Maxim Vidosianko, head of strategic projects at the KSE Institute, told Al Jazerera. “You need to set documents and evaluate environmental effects, and then, you can also need three years to build this mine.”

Fedoseienko said that the United States and the European Union may invest in such mines, because “we have more than 24 types of materials from the critical (raw) list”, but they will only contribute to the Ukrainian economy if the investments are fair.

Trump presented the metal deal as a recovery of billions in military aid.

“There is nothing fair remotely. Aid has not been provided to respond.”

As Fedoseienko said, “It is not fair if everyone says,” Well, we will help you at a time of war, so you are owned (before). “

In addition to fairness, Ukraine needs money. Some of this needs to come in the form of insurance.

KYIV returned an insurance formula attached to the state -backed war with the UK in 2023, for example, to return wholesale transport companies to Ukraine ports and defeated Russian efforts on siege Ukrainian grain exports.

As a result, Ukraine released 57.5 million tons of agricultural commodities in 2023-2024, and was on the right track to export 77 million tons in 2024-2025, which ends in June.

“There must be a great expansion in public insurance products in particular, as well as a step to seize frozen Russian assets,” he said.

The seizure of about 300 billion dollars in the funds of the Russian Central Bank held in the European Union was controversial, but the procedure is now receiving support.

“The Russian state has committed these war crimes, and it has broken international law, and according to this damage to Ukraine – which actually becomes a just way to help Ukraine to rebuild,” O’Brien said. “(Europeans) have a very strong issue for this, but they now lack the political will to do so.”

Ukraine President, Volodimir Zellinski, has already asked Europe to use money for Ukraine’s defense and reconstruction.

What the Europeans did in the meantime is what is somewhat moving towards the rebuilding of Ukraine.

About $ 300 million in interest payments from Russian assets is transferred to reconstruction every year.

The European Commission program provides 9.3 billion euros (10.5 billion dollars) of financial support designed to benefit from investment from the private sector.

Financial institutions such as the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the European Investment Bank offer loan guarantees to Ukrainian banks, which gives them liquidity.

“Ukrainian banks can provide loans to Ukrainian companies for investment and work in Ukraine. It is a large environmental system for financing the operational needs of the Ukrainian economy,” said Fedoseienko.

Along with the Ministry of Finance, KSE runs online gate that provide information about the various tools available, which has already helped achieve 165 investments to $ 27 billion.

Is it sufficient to restore the Ukrainian economy? ” Fedoseienko request. “No, but this is an important program to support Ukraine now.”