Europe wants to arm Ukraine, but it loses a race with time

Since President Trump took office as a outscension of the decline in American support for Ukraine, European leaders are concerned that they will not be able to provide Ukraine with the weapons it needs.

So far, they seem to have been right.

The so -called Al -Raghiba Alliance From the European countries that support Ukraine, it has been struggled to obtain the equipment to the battlefields at that time since Mr. Trump explained that Europe needs this Shoulder From pregnancy to Ukraine’s security and itself.

This is one of the reasons approved by the Parliament of Ukraine by an overwhelming majority on Thursday a deal to give the United States a share of future revenues on natural resources, including minerals. While it is less than security guarantee, it is Retain The possibility of US arms shipments and other military assistance.

“This gives us hope,” said Yahir Cherning, Vice -Chairman of the National Security, Defense and Intelligence Committee.

In an interview shortly after the vote, Mr. Chirinne said that the Ukrainian forces were low on long-range and artillery missiles, and above all, the regulations of the ballistic air defense-most of which are manufactured in the United States, according to his analysis Kiel Global Economy Institute.

By summer, the military aid that was approved under the Biden Administration will be implemented, and Mr. Trump appears to be hesitant to renew it.

“He told me that he needs more weapons, but he says this for three years,” said Mr. Trump after his meeting with President Volodimir Zellinski from Ukraine last month in Rome. (The Trump administration allowed Ukraine to buy some small weapons of the dollar directly from American manufacturers, but not with the help of the US government.)

In Europe, the allies gave about half an estimated $ 130 billion of military support provided to Ukraine since Russia’s invasion in 2022. The United States sent the rest.

On Friday, a Congress official said that the United States agreed to transfer Germany from 125 long -range artillery missiles and 100 air defense missiles to Patriot to Ukraine. The weapons that affect the need are manufactured in the United States and cannot be exported – even if they own another country – without the approval of the US government.

while European leaders and investors It seems ready to pump more money in weapons production, executive managers and experts in this field expect that it takes a decade to obtain assembly lines.

“Europe is trying to replace the assistance we lost from the United States, but unfortunately, they have no ability to do this,” said Mr. Chirinne. “It takes time between decision and real assistance.”

Although Mr. Trump has shown more compatibility with Ukraine in recent days, including Thursday The threat of penalties In Russia, if it refuses to agree to the extended ceasefire, its broader rejection of 80 years of US protection to Europe has prompted allied countries to rethink their security.

The allies fear that Mr. Trump will withdraw the Russian deterrent, such as the American forces and the Americans Nuclear umbrellaOutside Europe. The focus on protecting them eats what other European countries may give to Ukraine.

“They are hitting the dual problem of having to arm themselves and supply Ukraine, and industrial ability is not large enough to do the two things,” said Matthew Saville, Director of Military Sciences at the Royal United Services Institute, an analytical group of the British army.

He said that Europe can educate most of what the United States has provided in weapons to Ukraine, “in the medium term to the long term, if the will is, and I am not sure that the will.”

And now? “No, not in the short term,” said Mr. Savil.

Weapons It is not just a matter of life and death of Ukraine soldiers. Without enough supply, Ukraine may lose an area if it is forced to decline. The ceasefire agreement that Mr. Trump is trying to freeze the conflict in place. This would allow Russia to maintain any land that it seized in the meantime.

The flow of weapons to Ukraine from Europe will surely continue even if US delivery operations dried up. Germany has recently sent Ukraine more than 60 mine-resistant cars, about 50,000 artillery and ammunition, including IRIS-T, which can download cruise missiles. Some drones bought by Britain and Norway, which announced last month as part of a 600 million dollar security package, has since arrived in Ukraine. Estonia sends 10,000 artillery shells.

But many European military aids that pledged last month at the NATO headquarters reached obligations to produce or buy weapons in the coming years, not immediately. Ukraine may need American weapons for some time.

Some financial support in Europe will help the defense industry in Ukraine. Mr. Chirinne said that about 800 companies in Ukraine produce weapons. It is estimated that Ukraine could produce weapons worth $ 35 billion in the coming years, but it needs at least $ 14 billion of allies to get there. on saturday, Denmark announced It will send about $ 930 million of frozen Russian assets to support the defense industry in Ukraine on behalf of the European Union Fund.

Mr. Saville said that Ukraine is already offering millions of drones, including cheap kamikazes to provide its supplies from artillery shells. Likewise, the Western Intelligence official, who is closely monitoring the war, said that Ukraine forces improved in legalizing the defense of national air, using less expensive objections to capture smaller threats.

“They want more cruise missiles, ballistic missiles and a variety of other weapons, but at the present time, they will have to fill the gap,” said Mr. Saville.

Edward Wong The reports contributed.