Europe pumps money into defense. Is this enough?

Source: NATO

The size of the circles is determined according to absolute military spending.
The current goal of NATO is 2% of GDP

After the end of the Cold War, European military spending was telling the story of stability and optimism. Money flowed away from tanks and submarines and instead went to hospitals and pensions.

But that era is over. With the outbreak of a comprehensive ground war in Ukraine and the return of an isolationist American president to the White House, European leaders reached a blatant result: they must spend more on their armies.

I have left contracts for European armies discounts that are not prepared for what might wait for us. As the equipment and the small size of the forces agreed, its ability to work diminished without the support of the United States.

NATO countries formally committed to spend 2% of GDP on their armies in 2014, after Russia included the Crimea, despite the discussion of this standard for more than a decade. But eight countries have not yet been able to reach this standard, and many analysts say that even this is not enough. Now, President Donald J. Trump said he believed they should spend 5%.

Sources: NATO (2024); Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (1991 to 2023)

Note: All current members are displayed in NATO (NATO), although some of them joined after 1991. The size of the circles is determined according to absolute military spending.

As its military budgets decreased for decades, European countries relied heavily on the United States to provide security, confident of the NATO pledge that any attack on one member will be dealt with as an attack on everyone. Today, the United States represents up to two -thirds of the total military spending of NATO.

But while Trump was preparing to return to the White House, he looked more hostile to some NATO allies than during his first term in his post. He said he would encourage Russia to “do what they want” to members who do not contribute enough money to the alliance.

European contributions to NATO have always been a frustration of Mr. Trump. Even after the two countries began to achieve the goal of the 2%, he demanded them to do more.

At a press conference held earlier this month, he stressed that European countries should spend 5 percent of their gross domestic product on defense. This is more than twice the current goal – and much higher than American military spending, which is close to its lowest level in the post -Cold War.

Before Trump took office, 2% was seen as the ceiling. “This is considered the basic line,” said Daniel Fiot, head of the Defense and Government Program at Brussels Governance College.

But some European leaders also call for higher goals.

Robert Habik, the German Minister of Economy, suggested increasing military spending to 3.5 percent in a recent interview with Deir Spiegel magazine. “We need to spend nearly weakness on the defense so that Putin does not dare to attack us,” Habik said.

While Western European countries are discussing the issue of spending more on their armies, countries closest to Moscow have already moved. Poland’s spending reached 4% of its GDP in 2024, the highest in NATO.

Source: NATO

Note: The size of the circles is determined according to military spending

But even with increased spending, many experts say Europe should spend more.

Sean Monagan, a colleague at the Center for Strategic and Political Studies, said that many of the money that has been spent so far was to “compensate the land” lost since the end of the Cold War, and to fill the weapons stocks that have been exhausted due to transportation operations to Ukraine. International studies.

He said: “This does not lead to a significant increase in the defense capabilities of Europe in a way that enables it to succeed in the war against Russia.”

It was not limited to the belief of European leaders that the wars are unlikely after the collapse of the Soviet Union. They also thought that any future war would look completely different.

And to expect very short -term tasks that depend on accurate weapons and local fighting, according to Mr. Fiot, the leaders of the equipment and supply chains needed for a long -term wild war.

Al -Sayyid Fiot said: “You do not have to think about investing in tanks, huge marine fleets, and long -range missiles, and all these gaps that we see prevailing today.”

The goal of exceeding 2 percent military spending may constitute a dilemma for some leaders.

Over the past three decades, spending on health care and social protection has increased sharply, including pensions, unemployment benefits and housing allowances. Raising military spending even to 3.5% of GDP may mean radical transformations in spending.

Spending Health care and social programs It has increased significantly since the nineties

Change in spending as a percentage of GDP of European NATO members

Spain and Italy are among the most prominent countries that suffer from a lack of spending in NATO, with less than 1.5% allocated to their armies. Since the mid -1990s, spending in the two countries was enlarged on health and social protection, and that was largely due to rapid population aging.

But European leaders are now facing the new aggressive Russia whose military spending has increased to 6.3%, and an unpredictable American president who spoke about the use of “economic or military power” to seize Greenland, the region controlled by a member of NATO member .

And if they decide to spend more on their armies, they will only have little attractive options to finance this.

Among the five largest economies in Europe, which represents the majority of NATO defensive spending outside the United States, taxes have already increased significantly since 1991.

Taxes have increased in the largest European economies since 1990

Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development

Europe also faces another defect when it comes to military spending compared to larger countries such as the United States, or the country that wages a war on its eastern outskirts, Russia: it is consisting of dozens of countries, each of which adopts its own army and presses to build its own army. Private defense industries to win government contracts.

Mr. Monagan said: “The United States has enormous savings,” said Monagan. “European countries themselves do not possess it.”

Even as the war in Ukraine continues, some European politicians are already talking about peace time plans. The German Minister of Economy said that the goal of spending by 3.5% will be temporary, and it can be reduced once German security reaches a “reasonable case.”

Mr. Monagan, a colleague of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said this may be unknown.

He added: “The constant threat from Russia is the new normal situation, and we have to prepare for that and invest in our defense of it.” “I think there are still a lot of wishes.”