Europe is trying to attract Southeast Asia – but it will not win over the United States or China

Although relations extend for more than half a century, southern relations in Southeast Asia and European are mired in the various challenges that TENEO attributed to factors such as the geographical distance and different opinions on politics or the environment.

In his main speech in the Shangri-La 2025 dialogue, Macron called for stronger relations between Europe and the “new special relationship” of India in the Pacific Ocean. He stressed that both blocs face “possible erosion of long alliances” and the threat of countries competing to control or resort to force, and attract direct similarities between China’s progress in the South China and Russia’s sea to Ukraine.

However, similar experiences alone may not be sufficient to influence Asia, which is arising from the United States or China, according to Herrera Lim.

“The model follows the job in Southeast Asia, relations are based on economic relations in Southeast Asia, more than anything else,” CNBC told CNBC.

While the European Union has trade relations with Singapore and Vietnam, talks have stopped other bilateral deals or wide free trade agreements in the European Union ASEAN (FTA) for years, and Bigon from IFRI said that the bloc is still “progressing” in increasing its presence and investing in the region.

Meanwhile, Beijing has remained the largest trading partner in Southeast Asia since 2009, with total merchandise in trade reached $ 982.3 billion in 2024. The United States followed second, with an estimated $ 476.8 billion in trade last year. The European Union is ranked third, with about 258.7 billion euros ($ 299.7 billion) of goods in trade during the same period.

Without any meaning of meaning or promise to increase the future trade, Herrera-OLE said it would be difficult for Europe to compete against trade partners known as the mass.

“If China is next week or next month,“ We ​​are doing reforms until local markets in China are opened for commodities in Southeast Asia ”(then) will lined with Southeast Asian countries to reach the Chinese market. Independent policies on many of these issues.

Although Europe may not be able to replace the United States or China in the emerging Asia, it can provide transparent and reliable partnerships that are not related to zero competition, as it told Lisa Pomas’s research analyst at the European Union for Security Studies Institute (EUISS), CNBC via email.

She said: “The proposal of value in Europe lies in being a reliable partner in critical fields such as energy security, green infrastructure, and digital rule,” These are the areas that Southeast Asian countries want to diversify and build flexibility, especially given the concerns about excessive dependence. “

Pigon from IFRI said that strengthening relations with Europe will allow South Asia to diversify its strategic partnerships and enhance its ability to resist dominant pressure.

“The presence of more partners, including Europe, raises the diplomatic costs and the Chinese reputation of the escalation (regional conflicts in the region), especially given that Beijing focuses on” the peaceful height. ”

She added: “In this context, the partnership of the European Union is not related to difficult military deterrence, but it is a decisive symbolic defense mechanism. It strengthens that Southeast Asia is not isolated and has multiple partners, which makes the region more flexible in coercion.”