Washington Post Washington Post Gety pictures
The economic impact of the definitions imposed by the Trump administration will soon become clear to ordinary Americans and lead to this summer, according to the Apollo International Administration.
Torsten Slok, APOLLO’s chief economist, has a schedule in a Customer showed This was shown when the impact of definitions is announced by the president Donald Trump It can reach the American economy. Depending on the time of transportation required for goods from China, American consumers can start noticing the shortage of trade in their local stores next month, according to the presentation.
“The result will be the empty shelves in American stores within a few weeks and a COVID deficiency for consumers and companies that use Chinese products as intermediate commodities,” Slok wrote in a memorandum of customers on Friday.
The tariff on the stagnation schedule:
- April 2: Definitions have been announced, containing containers from China to the United States that slows down
- May to mid -May: The containers stop at the American ports
- Mid to mid -May: the demand for truck transport is stopped, which leads to empty shelves and decreased sales of companies
- Late May to early June: The demobilization of workers in the transport and retail industries
- Summer 2025: Rawd
Source: Apollo International Administration
To support the idea that the American economy is about to recession, the presentation also guarantees data that display new business orders, profit expectations, and capital spending plans sharply in recent weeks.
The Trump administration has suspended some definitions announced on April 2, but raised its duties higher in China. Treasury Secretary Scott Beesen admitted on Monday on CNBC.Squawk box“Facing the current tariff with Beijing is”Incomprehensible. Fees Goods from China It is now subject to a rate of 145 %.
China is not the only source of consumer goods, but it has a major role in the American economy. Import the United States 438.9 billion dollars of goods From China in 2024, according to the United States’ Commercial Representative Office, put it directly behind it Mexico Above Canada In the list of commercial partners with this scale.
While many say in Wall Street now that the recession for the United States possible In 2025, socks Predictions It is towards the most pessimistic side. Pesint said that the administration expects. “The period of getting rid of toxins“For the economy due to commercial negotiations, but not necessarily stagnant.
There is also some evidence of “clouds forward” on orders by announcing the customs tariff, which can keep the goods on the shelves longer than the APOLLO timing.
“Do not expect empty shelves yet – (a year so far) is still rising, and the demand is slow.”
– Michael Bloom of CNBC contributed to reporting.
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