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Your guide to what the second period of Trump means to Washington, business and the world
The economy has warned by financial times that “breathtaking financial policy” and attacks on the risks of independence in the Federal Reserve reduces the United States’ situation as a safe haven for foreign investors.
The poll, conducted by the Kent A Clarak Center for Global Markets at Both College at the University of Chicago, found that more than 90 percent of the economists surveyed were either somewhat concerned or very concerned about the safe role of assets that the US dollar has been exposed to over the next ten years.
This week, the White House insisted that Trump’s economic policies will help reduce our debts because it made the final stadium Winning over the financial hawks in the Senate And get the leading tax bill for the president on the line.
But independent estimates, including the Financial Supervisory Authority, the Congress Budget Office indicates the measures received in budget Bell-whom Trump called “The Big Beutiful Bill”-will pay US federal debts after the previous World War later in this decade.
while dollar Usually, during the bouts of the global market panic, the sharp sale process was linked to the global stock markets after Trump revealed the aggressive mutual definitions on April 2 to the consumption of the US currency.
After that, the S&P 500 standard is recovered in Ever Ocean does not hinder Trump’s economic policies or fuel enlargement in the world’s largest economy.
“It seems that the safe origin of the” Swiss France and Gold “. In fact, () the United States seems to be an emerging market, as the uncertainty in politics leads to an increasing risk that pays long -term returns and the value of the currency.”
The dollar is trading at the lowest level of its duration, amid concerns about financial sustainability and question marks on the independence of the Federal Reserve, such as Trump continues to attack the chair Jay Powell Because he hesitated to reduce interest rates amid fears that the World Trade War can increase inflation.
“The breathtaking policy is a guaranteed surplus, and this calls, although it hardly guarantees, changing the heart about the dollar assets,” said Robert Barbira of Johns Hopkins University.
“Marriage to this reality arising into an actual acquisition of the White House – by shooting Powell or the penetration flow as an alternative to Powell?
The term Powell ends in May 2026 and the speculation is widespread that Trump can designate it Choose to replace him Early from an attempt to undermine the Federal Reserve Chair.
“The financial deficit, the deliberate governmental actions to reduce the American financial account and reduce the value of the dollar, and the uncertainty about the caliphate at the Federal Reserve and questions about the independence of the Federal Reserve, all of which negatively affect (the state of the dollar safe),” said Anna Sizal from Duke University.
The US Treasury revenues, which are usually located in the times of market fluctuations, increased in early April. While the normative return for 10 years has decreased about 4.3 percent, many economists included in the survey believe that it could soon reach 5 percent-a level that would cause concern within the Trump administration.
Nearly three quarters of the 47 respondents in the poll, responding to the revenue on 10 -year debts to a 5 % increase by mid -year.
“The US Treasury (Bundes) may not be a safe advantage,” said Eva Baba at the University of Carlos III De Madrid. “See what happened on” Liberation Day “to the United States for 10 years for European revenues.”
Economists have become more depressed in the American economic outlook since the last time in March.
The average is now to expand the world’s largest economy by 1.5 percent throughout this year, a little fell from 1.6 percent estimate in the spring.
Separate surveys of economists, families and American companies show that predictions of growth and confidence were rapidly drowned after the announcement of the April 2 tariff, but then, it was partially recovered on the back of the commercial truce between the United States and China and the rise in stock prices.
Economists have also become more stunned in price pressures, as the average expectations for the basic PCE enlarged this year increased from 2.8 percent in March to 3 percent in June, amid expectations that Trump’s tariff will be transferred to American consumers.
But a few respondents believe that there is a chance of more than 50 percent for the basic PCE enlargement, which exceeds 4 percent and the unemployment rate at the same time exceeds 5 percent at any time from now until the end of 2026.
The best reading is expected to enlarge the consumer price index in the hopes that the hopes of being transferred less than the cost of customs tariffs are more than fear to American shoppers.
But the annual number of basic personal consumption expenditures in May, which was published on Friday, rose to 2.7 percent, from 2.6 percent in the previous month.
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