Doubts and hope at the end of the Gaza war before Trump’s meeting Israeli conflict news

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is visiting the United States on Monday, analysts focused on celebrating Israel and the United States’s self -win against Iran and discussing a ceasefire proposal in the Israeli war on Gaza.

This is the third time this year to meet Netanyahu, US President Donald Trump, who The United States and Israel claims to “blush” the Iranian nuclear program During a 12 -day war and that it would resume Iran’s bombing if nuclear activities were restarted.

Last week, Trump said that Israel agreed to a 60 -day ceasefire conditions in Gaza, which would allow all parties to work for the end of the 21 -month -old Israeli war on the besieged pocket.

On July 4, Hamas gave a “positive” response For Qatari and Egyptian brokers about the last ceasefire proposal.

Is the ceasefire realistic?

On Friday, after Hamas responded to the suggestion, Trump said he could have a “deal next week” and promised to be “very firm” with Netanyahu to ensure the ceasefire.

Israel has since said that Hamas had requested changes to the proposal He found “unacceptable”But Israeli negotiators will go to Qatar on Sunday to discuss the proposal.

According to a copy that was leaked from the deal obtained by the island, the ceasefire requires a 60 -day stand in hostilities and a gradual release of some of the 58 Israeli prisoners who have been held in Gaza since an attack led by Hamas on Israel on October 7, 2023.

The Israeli war on Gaza has killed at least 57,000 people, most of them women and children, while United Nations, legal scholars and human rights groups describe it as a collective genocide against the Palestinians.

Several experts told Al -Jazeera that they are not optimistic that the temporary ceasefire would lead to a permanent end of the war.

“The way the method (the ceasefire talks) makes me skeptical.”

Rahman added that he believed that Trump is focusing on the release of Israeli prisoners, but not to end the war and the suffering of the people of Gaza.

Trump I previously promised to end the war After pressing the ceasefire a few days before he became president in January.

However, after two months, Trump did nothing when Israel resumed its unilateral attacks on Gaza, killing thousands of people.

This may happen again, said Mairav ​​Zonszein, an expert in Israel and the two bars of the International Crisis Group, said this may happen again.

“All this depends on Trump and the United States to maintain real pressure (on Netanyahu), but this is very doubtful,” she said in favor of the island.

“I am optimistic that there may be a kind of ceasefire, but the longevity and the conditions are very questionable,” Zonszein said.

She added, “It is also possible to see the ceasefire does not last because … Israel is often still a bomber without repercussions (in Gaza).”

Yasser Al -Banna, a Palestinian journalist in Gaza, said that many in the tape are divided over whether the ceasefire will end the war. While everyone prays, some people cannot imagine Netanyahu to stick to a deal.

Netanyahu insists that the war will not end without a “complete victory” over Hamas, a concept that has not been determined.

He said: “About half of the people in Gaza are very pessimistic … The other half believes that this time it can be different due to the common interests between Israel, the Palestinians, the Arab countries and the United States to end this war.”

Glory and pragmatism

Many analysts believe that Trump is driven by his desire to conclude great deals in order to boast of his achievements in global affairs.

On Monday, it is possible that he will be credited with dismantling the Iranian nuclear program on the outsatlant – although this may not be true – and expresses his desire to recover the rest of the Israeli prisoners in Gaza.

Khaled Elginy, an expert in Israel and females and professor of Arab studies at Georgetown University in Washington, DC, said that he also wants to come out of the “Gaza issue” from the way to follow more normalization deals between Israel and neighboring Arab countries.

“Trump wants to be able to say that he has regained the Israeli hostages … and got a Palestinian state … then he can call himself the master of the universe, but get these things is much more difficult than he believes,” said Elginy on the island.

It is not clear whether Netanyahu’s political accounts are in line with Trump’s ambitions.

The upcoming Israeli parliamentary elections must be held before October 2026, and Netanyahu can go to opinion polls soon, and ride a possible wave of popularity if he succeeds in returning the remaining prisoners.

Like Trump, he was also describing what he described Amazing victory against Iran For the Israeli public.

Hugh Lovat, an expert in Israel and Palestine with the European Council for Foreign Relations, said these considerations are important because the right -wing Netanyahu’s right -wing alliance, which was collected by prolonging the war on Gaza, will collapse if a permanent ceasefire is reached.

“At the end of the (potential) ceasefire for 60 days, (Netanyahu) can go to the elections by adhering to a complete end to the war and collapse of his alliance; or he can return to war to maintain his (extremist) alliance together if he rules the time is not appropriate for the elections.”

A possible result, almost unaccounted,

Staying in office is especially important for the longest prime minister in Israel, which faces many local legal charges of fraud and bribery.

During his long -awaited meeting with Trump, experts expect to discuss Netanyahu’s trial, which many believe a major role in dictating his political accounts.

The position of Netanyahu as prime minister enabled him to undermine the Israeli judicial system by appointing loyalists to the higher courts and delaying the court sessions – an impact that he would lose if his alliance reveals.

Trump is completely aware of the Netanyahu dilemma.

On June 25, He called on Israel to drop the charges against Netanyahu, In reference to the trial as “a charming chase.” Trump’s comments indicate that he is trying to pressure Netanyahu’s opponents to issue a pardon in exchange for ending the war on Gaza, said Elgindy in Georgetown.

Elgindy referred to the position of Trump’s recent social media, where he hinted that Israel’s military aid was suspended unless charges were dropped against Netanyahu.

“The United States of America spends billions of dollars a year, much more than any other country, protecting and supporting Israel. We will not defend this,” Trump wrote on June 28.

This will be a major decision – almost unaccounted – to get out of the meeting between Trump and Netanyahu.

“I do not see him following, but this is a typical (threat) that Trump makes,” he said. “It has (how to work) is blackmail and gathering. This is his novel for diplomacy.”

ELGINDY added that it is sad that Trump will threaten to cut military aid to Israel to protect Netanyahu, not the Palestinians who are hungry in Gaza.

The decision to pardon Netanyahu with the President of Israel, Isaac Herzog, but this step will be unprecedented, and the president has not indicated that he is planning to do so.

Analysts believe that Herzog may be ready to pardon Netanyahu if he agrees to get out of political life, but not only to ensure a ceasefire.

Zonszein, from the CRISIS group, adds that there are lawyers and judges in Israel who have warned “years” that it was in the interest of the public to reach a call with Netanyahu because of the authority he holds throughout the country.

Their only condition is that Netanyahu agree to leave politics.

“I don’t think this is something that Netanyahu is thinking.