summary
The long-term trend in the US stock market was higher. In the 40-plus years since Ronald Reagan became president in 1980, stocks have performed profitably about 80% of the time. The average annual profit was 13%. This year was another winner, as stocks in 2024 extended the bull market that began in October 2022. The rally was sparked by low inflation and was driven by low interest rates, continued economic growth and high corporate earnings growth rates. But despite historical trends, there is no guarantee that 2025 will ring a bell either. The start of the year could be tough, as the Federal Reserve grapples with stubborn inflation, the employment environment likely weakens its historically strong position, and geopolitical issues simmer. But earnings growth is expected to accelerate to a low double-digit rate year-on-year during the first half. If inflation resumes its downward march, giving the central bank more scope to cut interest rates, the outlook for the second half should improve. We believe the stock market will take its cues from two sources in 2025. The first is the Federal Reserve, which has been in the driver’s seat in this second leg of the bull market since it focused on its interest rate forecasts. Second will be earnings growth, which is already strong but could get a boost in 2025 from Donald Trump’s new policies. It’s at least a modest relief
https://s.yimg.com/cv/apiv2/social/images/yahoo_default_logo.png
Source link