US foreign policy researcher John Mirchimer has suggested that former President Donald Trump may try to prevent the India and Pakistani war by offering a profitable economic incentive for India. In the comments made on TV TV, Mearsheimer speculated that the customs tariff-as it could-can serve as a crane in high-risk diplomacy.
“Perhaps Trump could tell the Indians that he would give them a real real deal if he felt they were about to go to war and Trump did not want to go to war,” said Mearsheimer.
He acknowledged the strong relationships between the two departments during the Trump presidency, saying: “I think the relations between the Trump administration and the Moody administration are very good, and we are not likely to play a solid ball with Modi in the way I just described.” However, he admitted, “It is difficult to say what is happening with regard to US -Indian relations about the Kashmir crisis at this time period.”
The broader context, according to Mearsheimer, is much more worrying. He warned that the conflict in India and Pakistan is dangerously unstable, and noted that the United States has been historically intervened to cancel tensions. He said: “These two nuclear armed countries have a history of fighting.” “In the past, the United States interfered in crises between these two countries to go to the extreme to close them.”
He explained that American diplomacy often focused on preventing India from launching a major attack, for fear that it could lead to Pakistan’s nuclear response. He said: “We were always afraid that the conflict that started on the traditional level would escalate to the nuclear level,” noting the military imbalance. “The traditional balance of power is greatly preferred by Indians.”
However, Mearsheimer expressed suspicion that Trump will respond to the insight former presidents. “You have no feeling that the Trump administration pays careful attention to this conflict,” he said. “Let’s hope this is not the case, but this can go out of control.”
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