Do French unrest mean the end of Macronism?

Emmanuel Macron made a sombre appearance in the vast Cypriot Pantheon during a reception for the former French justice minister this week.

It was a stark reminder of the president’s growing isolation as his former allies turn against him and his popularity declines amid political turmoil for which he is largely blamed.

Macron said in his speech on Thursday that the late Minister Robert Badinter had been “criticized, attacked, ridiculed, slandered, insulted, abused and even hated” for his lifelong work to abolish the death penalty and legalize homosexuality, and he may have seen some parallels with his own situation.

The death of the macaron has been predicted before. However, after a chaotic week – with Sébastien Lecornu reappointed as prime minister on Friday evening less than a week after his resignation – it has become increasingly clear that France’s nearly decade-long experiment with Macron’s form of insurgent centrist politics is coming to an end.

“This is the end of Macron. He has lost all credibility,” said an adviser to the right-wing Republicans party, which on Monday led to Lecornu’s resignation when he withdrew from his government. “First we will see the end of his political system, then the end of his personality.”

Anti-presidential sentiment is a routine feature of French political life. Macron’s predecessor, François Hollande, a socialist politician who served only one term, was more hated than the current president.

But apart from his declining popularity, Macron’s legacy is also at risk – his parliamentary bloc has split, and allies have opened the door to halting some of his key economic policies, such as raising the retirement age to 64.

“What is it Macaroni? “It is a liberal economic policy, a very pro-European position, it is a will to reform our country, and it is very tough on security,” said Charles Rodwell, a member of parliament for Macron’s Ennahda party. “If we decide to step back and abandon pension reform, it is like abandoning part of our identity.”

Macron’s attempt to redefine French politics may be as fleeting as his rise has been meteoric.

A person close to the president said that Macron’s rise to the top job in 2017 “broke the classic right-left political alternation in France.” “Was that a bracketed ten years, or are we going to have a political life divided into three in the long term?” Whether his movement and its policy record holds up “will be for history to judge,” this person said.

Back in 2017, the former Rothschild banker won the presidency despite having never previously held any elected office and serving only one term as economy minister in Hollande’s government. His disruptive approach has attracted talent from the centre-left, the centre-right and the private sector. Young people have registered for his election campaign in large numbers, bringing a generation of new faces into government.

Now Macron’s centrist three-party coalition is collapsing, while centre-left and centre-right parties are deeply divided over whether to give him the support he needs to govern. Meanwhile, the National Rally led by Marine Le Pen is and portraying itself as a stable power ready to rule.

Renaissance senator Francois Patria admitted that Macron’s camp itself “is not showing signs of good health.” “It is an unfortunate scene. The parties are tearing themselves apart. The problem is not in the Elysee, but in Parliament. They cannot make concessions, so they are demanding the president’s resignation.”

This week, Le Pen and the far-left opposition parties that have long called for Macron’s resignation were joined by his former prime minister and presidential candidate Edouard Philippe, who told Le Figaro newspaper that the crisis threatens “the authority and stability of the state.”

Macron, whose term runs until 2027, has long said he will complete his term.

Gabriel Attal, a former Macron student whose term as prime minister ended due to the president’s decision to call early parliamentary elections last year, said he “no longer understands the president’s decisions.”

Macron’s two terms in office were marked by multiple crises, from the anti-government Yellow Vest protests in 2018, to economic and social problems caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and his deeply unpopular pension reform.

But the current unrest can be traced back to his failed bet last year to dissolve the National Assembly in an attempt to halt the rise of Le Pen’s party, which had just won elections to the European Parliament. The surprise vote cost Macron’s bloc its ability to govern and pass budgets, and strengthened the far right.

As his influence over domestic politics has diminished, Macron has engaged in diplomacy on issues including European defence, Ukraine and the conflict in Gaza. He hosted Arab and European foreign ministers in Paris this week to discuss the reconstruction of Gaza after the war. He mediated the first meeting between re-elected President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the reopening of Notre Dame Cathedral in December.

But the current mood within Macron’s camp was described as “gloomy” this week after Lecornu’s resignation. Cabinet aides and advisers are sending out resumes as they search for jobs in the private sector, according to three people familiar with the situation. One outgoing Cabinet adviser said: “The 2024 solution was stupid and annoying – but people felt it was important and obligatory to campaign, especially against the far right. And now that energy has seeped away.”

The president was seen this week walking along the banks of the Seine River, a lone figure dressed in black with a phone pressed to his ear. People close to him said that he remained firm, focused on the necessity of adopting the 2026 budget, and optimistic about finding a way out of the current impasse, despite his sadness about the state of France.

Supporters laud this as a strength. Ennahdha Party MP Karl Olive said, “The president is a warrior, and he will do everything in his power to save what he can of reforms, and what he built.”

His camp still hopes to reach an agreement despite all the odds. This is perhaps the most Macronian trait of all: an uncompromising confidence – even in the face of history, obstacles, opponents and mistakes – in the possibility of forging a way forward.

The person close to the president said: “It is a sad sight, but somewhere there is still the possibility that there is a light that will shine out of this darkness.” “Only at the end of the concert does the orchestra get its pay.”

But others see an overconfident and increasingly isolated president, imposing his solutions despite mounting evidence that they are not working. “It’s total chaos,” a former adviser said, “and at the same time the court surrounding the president makes him optimistic… It’s a disaster.”

“I think Macron himself has no idea what he is going to do: he is sailing blind,” a French executive said. “Let’s hope it’s not Titanic.”