Displaced Palestinians return to their homes in northern Gaza as ceasefire continues between Israel and Hamas: live updates

But even as each side accuses the other of reneging on its agreements, analysts say, Israel and its opponents have reasons to remain flexible and temporarily overlook the other’s transgressions.

Although Hezbollah is angry with Israel for keeping forces in southern Lebanon, it may risk a devastating Israeli counterattack if it resumes its missile attacks on Israeli cities. Hamas wants to retain power in Gaza and risks losing it if war returns. Israel must maintain current arrangements in Gaza long enough to free at least twenty more hostages. Israeli leaders also seemed eager to appease President Trump, who has continued his election campaign He promised to keep the peace In the Middle East.

In an illustration of their desire to prolong the truce in Gaza, Israel and Hamas appeared to have resolved the weekend crisis at midnight on Sunday. The government of Qatar, the mediator between the two sides, said so The hostage is Erbil Jewswill be released this week with two others set to be released ahead of schedule. In return, Israel said it would allow the displaced Palestinians to do so Return to northern Gaza On Monday morning.

As for Lebanon, The White House announced He said the truce would be extended until February 18, although there was no immediate comment from Israel or Hezbollah. The Lebanese Prime Minister’s office confirmed the extension.

“They’ll get through the next few weeks — beyond that, anyone’s guess,” said Aaron David Miller, a former US negotiator in Middle East peace talks.

“These are not agreements between the United States and Switzerland. They are agreements that depend on each side giving the other freedom of action and a certain margin of maneuver,” he added. “This is their weakness, but also their strength.”

Ultimately, this room for maneuver allowed both truces to continue into the weekend, even as Israeli forces opened fire. People were killed in both Lebanon and Gaza Who were trying to return to areas still under Israeli control.

The Lebanese Health Ministry said 22 people were killed by Israeli fire in southern Lebanon, and the Palestinian Authority news agency said one person was killed in Gaza as large crowds gathered in both places near Israeli forces, demanding to return home.

But by Monday morning, it appeared that the confrontation in Gaza would subside. In Lebanon, Hezbollah issued a statement praising residents who tried to return and calling on foreign powers to force Israel to withdraw. But Hezbollah did not resume firing rockets.

Analysts say Hezbollah is unlikely to risk further losses while its leadership is eliminated and its sponsor Iran is weakened. The party’s main arms supply route, through Syria, was also closed in December when Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, a Hezbollah ally, was arrested. Expelled by rebels.

Hezbollah leaders “still have some missiles, some weapons, and they can do something,” said Hanin Ghaddar, a Lebanon analyst at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, a foreign affairs research group.

Ms. Ghaddar added: “But if they did, it would be tantamount to suicide, because they know that any kind of attack by Hezbollah in Israel means that Israel will seize the opportunity to come back in force and destroy what is left of them.”

Ms. Ghaddar said Hezbollah may also be concerned about losing support among its Shiite base, especially in next year’s parliamentary elections. The Shiite community in Lebanon paid the greatest price for Hezbollah’s decision to go to Lebanon War with Israel In October 2023, in solidarity with its ally, Hamas. Shiite villages and towns in southern Lebanon I bore the brunt Because of the Israeli air campaign and ground invasion that followed.

“If the Shiites don’t vote for them, that’s the end of Hezbollah,” said Ms. Ghaddar, the author of a book on Hezbollah’s relationship with its base. “They can’t do anything if they don’t know 100% that the Shiite community will support this.”

Because Hezbollah is less likely to resume fighting, the Gaza ceasefire is considered the weaker of the two truces.

But the biggest stress test is not expected until the beginning of March, when Hamas and Israel must decide whether to extend the arrangement beyond the initial 42-day truce.

For now, Israel has indicated its desire to maintain the ceasefire to maintain the flow of hostage releases. But an extension would require both sides to agree to a permanent end to the war — a bridge that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears unwilling to cross. Mr. Netanyahu’s coalition government relies on far-right lawmakers seeking permanent Israeli control of Gaza, and his administration could collapse if the war ends with Hamas still in power.

The terms of the agreement allow for some flexibility. The truce could last beyond the 42-day mark as long as the two sides remain negotiating whether to make the arrangement permanent.

But Israeli officials say they will not remain locked into fruitless negotiations indefinitely, especially if Hamas stops releasing hostages. Hamas is unlikely to continue releasing the hostages, who constitute its main bargaining chip, without an Israeli promise to cease hostilities forever.

“Hamas wants a ceasefire, but not at any price,” said Mkhaimer Abu Saada, a Palestinian political science professor from Gaza. “They want a ceasefire that ends the war.”

Much could depend on President Trump’s willingness to persuade Netanyahu to reach a more sustainable truce. Mr Trump’s private messages to the Israeli Prime Minister were crucial in shaping the initial phase, but it remains to be seen whether the US President will maintain this position a few weeks later.

Abu Saada said: “If Netanyahu succeeds in convincing Trump of the need to renew the war, it is likely that there will be a renewal of the war.” “If Trump keeps his promise that he doesn’t want any wars and wants more peace — whether that’s in Gaza or Ukraine or around the world — that’s a different thing.”