CPI inflation report July 2025:

A large -scale feed for inflation was widely lower than expected in July on an annual basis as president Donald TrumpDefinitions often showed modest effects.

the Consumer price index The work statistics office increased on Tuesday that a 0.2 % increased season is seasonal and 2.7 % on the basis of 12 months. Compared to the Dow Jones estimates of 0.2 % and 2.8 %.

With the exception of food and energy, the basic consumer price index increased by 0.3 % for the month and 3.1 % over last year, compared to predictions by 0.3 % and 3 %. Federal reserve officials generally consider basic inflation as a better reading of long -term directions. The main monthly rate has been the largest increase since January.

BLS said that the increase of 0.2 % in the costs of shelter led to a significant increase in the index, while food prices were flat and energy decreased by 1.1 %. The prices of new tariffs are not changed, although used cars and trucks witnessed a 0.5 % jump. The transport and medical care services recorded both 0.8 % higher moves.

Futures in the stock market The gains that were published after the report and the cabinet were often less, while traders also escalated the bets that the federal reserve would begin to reduce prices again in September.

The definitions appear to appear in several categories.

For example, furniture and household supplies showed a 0.7 % increase after 1 % in June. However, clothes prices increased by only 0.1 % and basic commodity prices increased only 0.2 %. The canned fruits and vegetables, which are generally imported and sensitive to definitions, were flat.

“The definitions in the numbers, but they certainly do not jump on poetry at this stage,” said Jared Bernstein, a former White House economist at CNBC. Bernstein served during the era of former President Joe Biden.

The report comes in both the critical time of the economy and the BLS itself, which was subjected to Trump’s criticism of what he accused is the political bias against him. Trump launched the BAS BLS Commissioner after an unobtrusive salary report in July earlier this month, and said on Monday that he would nominate EJ Antoni, a critic of the office, as a new president.

The office was disabled due to budget discounts and employees and stopped collecting data in multiple cities. Besides, the data had to place values in a number of goods and services that follow, which leads to questions about accuracy and credibility.

While political tremors had occurred, federal reserve officials were closely monitoring inflation measures because they are weighing the next interest rate decision in September.

“The inflation is raising, but it has not increased as much as some people feared,” said Ellen Zintner, the chief economist of Murghan Stanley. “In the short term, the markets are likely to adopt these numbers because the Federal Reserve should allow focus on the weak labor market and maintain the September rate reduction on the table. In the long run, we will not see the end of the increasing prices with the continued customs tariffs on its way through the economy.”

In the case is whether the definitions will lead to an increase in prices for one time or will lead to a constant rise in inflation. Economists generally view the effects of the tariff as the first, although the wide range of elements covered under Trump decrees raised fears that the effect may be longer.

The futures market pricing strongly indicates a reduction in the federal reserve rate in September. However, a set of data from time to time can affect both the decision of that meeting and the future cycle of the Central Bank. Recently, federal reserve officials have been expressing increasing levels of concern about the labor market, which would herald the reduction of prices.

Traders increased the implicit possibilities of the September step after the release, and put another 67 % decrease in October, an increase of 55 % the day before, according to the Fedwatch tool for the CME group.

Consumer price index is not an initial inflation prediction tool at the Federal Reserve. The Central Bank uses the price of personal consumption expenses for the Ministry of Trade, but the consumer price index, as well as the product price index that is scheduled to be released on Thursday, feeds on this account.

BLS said in a separate version that the average modified clock profits by pressure increased by only 0.1 % for this month. Which put the annual profit by 1.2 %.