Conditions are applied to inflation, fixed growth rate: CEA

Despite the uncertainty caused by US President Donald Trump’s policies of trade and tariffs in the first few months after taking office, the Indian economy is seen as recovering and recorded a raised growth of four quarters by 7.4 % in the fourth quarter of the fiscal year 25.

The economy is seen as 6.5 % over the fiscal year 25, in line with official estimates, giving comfort that India will continue to overcome global opposite winds in the current fiscal year as well.

Pointing to the strong total economic data for the first quarter of the current financial financial financial money, the chief economic advisor against Anantha Nageswaran expressed his confidence that the economy will grow within the scope of official expectations of 6.3 % to 6.8 % in the 26th fiscal year with private consumption, especially rural rebel and export of fun services. “The momentum of the economy that chose in the fourth quarter of the fiscal year 25 continues in the first quarter of the 26th fiscal year, which is a good sign,” he stressed.

In the processing of journalists after the publication of GDP data on Friday, CEA noticed that in the first quarter of the current financial, purchasing managers in both manufacturing and services in the expansion area. The average work rate in hotels in April 2025 was better than March 2025 while the charging activity was better on a general basis, and urban and rural demand was fine.

He said: “The conditions are in effect for inflation and a fixed growth rate,” adding that, given the global economy, our economy is in good condition. He said: “If we continue to achieve foreign investment, the investment of private capital continues to grow, and urban consumption continues to grow, we can achieve a growth rate on the higher side of the range, if not less than the range.”

He pointed out that the contribution of the external sector to the economy due to the commercial restrictions will remain “opportunistic” and said that it is not expected to prove the increasing cases of Covid that it is an economic challenge. The negative risks will remain the way the global financial markets act.

Most analysts also expect GDP growth within 6.5 % of this fiscal year.

Dharmakirti Joshi, chief economist, said that Crisil expects the GDP in India to grow by 6.5 % in the 2026 fiscal year with inclined risks down. “We expect consumption to remain strong in the current fiscal year, supported by favorable local factors such as natural seasonal wind patterns, transporting interest rates by the Indian Reserve Bank (RBI), and the tax benefits of the middle class. It is expected that these recent factors will enhance urban consumption and the completion of strong rural demand.” However, the demand for investment is likely to remain slow, as the high uncertainty will lead to a reduction in investment appetite in companies, and it is planned that public investment will grow at a slower rate compared to the fiscal year 2025, as he warned.

Madan Sabnafis, chief economist, Barouda also said that the growth of the 26th fiscal year will be maintained within 6.4-6.6 %.

However, analysts highlighted concerns about the growth of consumption in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 25, and they said it might be a source of concern in the 26th fiscal year.

“The force is expected to continue in the back of favorable horizons for monsoon winds, health tank levels and optimistic agricultural output, however, the lack of equal presence is witnessing the restoration of consumption consumption. Consumption recovery has become wide and durable along with the revival of Capex for the government is increasingly necessary to revive the Capex cycle Special. The agency expects the GDP to grow 6.2 % of this fiscal year.

The growth of private consumption was supervised to the lowest level of five -quarters on an annual basis in the fourth quarter of the fiscal year 25, while government consumption expenses decreased by 1.8 % on an annual basis in the fourth quarter. This was