Cold vegetable prices help raise the inflation of the consumer price index to the lowest level in January five months in January

The price of the most soft vegetables, especially food prices in the kitchen, helped reduce retail inflation to the lowest level in five months by 4.31 % in January 2025, and prices are expected to decrease in the coming months. While the January figures are due to the decision of the monetary policy committee to reduce prices, analysts warn that moving forward in a decrease in rupees of its value may have an impact on monetary policy.

According to the official data released on Wednesday, inflation based on the consumer price index fell to 4.31 % in January from 5.22 % in December. It was 5.1 % in January 2024. Consumption inflation was cooled to 6.02 % in January of this year from 8.39 % in December 2024.

An inflation in the food and drink basket decreased to 5.68 % in January from 7.69 % in the previous month. Vegetable enlargement remained high but reduced to 11.35 % in January from 26.56 % in December.

With the passage of prices to continue supervising in February, retail enlargement is seen as expected to reduce more. ICRA connects inflation to the consumer price index in February by 4 %. India and research also expects the consumer price index in February and March 2025 in a range of 3.9 % -4 %.

“According to the early data in February 2025 (until February 10, 2025), the average retail rate for 14 of 22 basic commodities (except for wheat, sugar and most of the edible oils) reduced on a successive basis a month. And communication, ICRA.

Suman Chaudhry, Executive Director and Economist, Acuité Ratings & Research indicated that the sharp correction in tomatoes, onions and potatoes – CPIF ingredients – contributed to this declining path to food enlargement. He said: “In addition, low inflation in inflation, with the support of imports free from customs tariffs and strong harvest expectations, also helped reduce food prices.” He said that the seeds that were wandering around the expectants, and the prices of vegetables continued to decline in February 2025, which should help maintain inflation in the next two months.

However, analysts have warned that edible oil prices, as inflation in commodity increased to 15.64 % in January could constitute a challenge in the coming months along with higher imported inflation due to a decrease in rupee.

Basic inflation saw a marginal increase to 3.7 % in January from 3.6 % in the previous month.

RBI connects retail in the fourth quarter of the fiscal year by 4.4 % and is expected to reduce to 4.5 % in the first quarter of the 26th fiscal year. The next meeting of RBI’s MPC will be held in April.

PARAS JASRAI, the India Ratings Senior Indicator, noted that reducing future policy depends on data. He said: “The monetary political measure in April 2025 depends on the monetary policy on the movement of currency and liquidity in the system.”

Upasna Bhardwaj, Senior Economist, Kotak Mahindra Bank expects the inflation path be benign in the coming months to provide an area for 25 other basis points of prices lower by MPC. “However, you will need a decrease in INR to closely monitor the repair of local inflation,” I noticed.