Cloud quantum computing: a trillion dollar chance with serious hidden risks

Quantum computing (QC) brings a mixture of leading possibilities and great risks. Like senior technology players IBMand Googleand Microsoft and Amazon QC Cloud commercial services have already been offered, while specialized companies such as Quantinuum and Psiquantum have achieved a single status. Experts expect that the global quality control market can add more than 1 trillion dollars To the global economy between 2025 and 2035. However, can we say with certainty that the benefits outweigh the risks?

On the one hand, these advanced systems carry a promise to implement a revolution in areas such as the discovery of drugs, the model of climate, Amnesty International, and perhaps even Artificial general intelligence (AGI) Development. On the other hand, they also provide serious challenges for cybersecurity that must be treated now, although quantum computers operate at full capacity capable of breaking the coding standards today are still several years away.

Understanding the QC threat scene

The main fear of QC cyber security is its ability to break the encryption algorithms that have been considered unbreakable. A reconnaissance KPMG has revealed that about 78 % of American companies, 60 % of Canadian companies expect quantum computers to become prevailing by 2030. In a more worrying manner, 73 % of American respondents and 60 % of Canadian respondents are believed to be a matter of time only before electronic property begins to use QC for current security assessments.

Modern encryption methods are highly dependent on mathematical problems that cannot be solved almost by classic computers, at least in a reasonable time frame. For example, the large numbers used in RSA encryption will take such a computer about 300 trillion years. However, with the Shor (developed in 1994 to help quantitative computers in large numbers factors) quickly) Faster.

Grover, designed for unorganized research, is a real change of games when it comes to similar methods of encryption, as the safety power is effectively cut into half. For example, AES-128 encryption will not only provide the same safety level as a 64-bit system, which leaves it open to quantum attacks. This position calls for more powerful encryption standards, such as AES-256, which can stand against potential quantum threats in the near future.

The harvest is now, decipher it later

The most anxiety is “The harvest is now, decipher it later.” (HNDL) The attack strategy, which includes today’s encrypted data collection opponents, is only to decipher it as soon as the quality monitoring technology becomes developed enough. It is a great danger to data that carries long -term value, such as health records, financial details, classified government documents and military intelligence.

Looking at the dire consequences that are likely to be HNDL attacks, Many organizations Responsibility for vital systems all over the world must be adopted “light -trans -movement.” This means that they should be ready to switch algorithms and encryption applications quickly whenever new weaknesses appear. This anxiety is also reflected in US national security note When strengthening US leadership in quantum computing with risk mitigatingWhich specifically indicates this threat and calls for proactive measures to confront it.

The timeline of the threat

When it comes to predicting the schedule of quantum threats, expert opinions around the map. A Modern report From MITER it indicates that we may not see a strong quantum computer enough to break the RSA-2048 encryption up to 2055 to 2060, based on the current trends in the size of the quantum-a scale used to compare the quality of different quantum computers.

At the same time, some experts feel more optimistic. They believe that the recent breakthroughs in correcting quantum errors and the design of algorithm can accelerate things, allowing the possibilities of decoding quantity early in 2035. a report In late 2020, expressing 90 % confidence that the RSA-2048 can be taken into account before 2060.

Although the exact schedule is still in the air, there is one clear thing: experts agree that institutions need to start preparing immediately, regardless of the reaches of the already quantitative threat.

Quantum automatic learning – final black box?

Regardless of the molten encryption of today’s organizations, security and future researchers It was also worried About the apparent inclusive incorporation of artificial intelligence and QS. Quantum technology has the ability to superior charging Development of artificial intelligence Because he can handle complex accounts at lightning speed. It can play an important role in reaching AGI, where AI systems today need trillions of parameters to become more intelligent, which leads to some serious mathematical obstacles. However, this synergy opens the scenarios that may exceed our ability to predict.

You do not need AGI to understand the essence of the problem. Imagine if quantum computing is merged into machine learning (ML). We can look at what experts call the final black box problem. Deep nerve networks (DNNS) is already known to be very transparent, with hidden layers that even their creators are struggling for interpretation. While tools to understand how classic nervous networks make decisions already exist, Quantum ML may lead to a more confused position.

The root of the issue lies in the nature of quality control, which is the fact that it uses overlap, tangle and overlap to process information in ways that do not contain any classic equalizer. When these quantum features are applied to ML algorithms, models that show difficult translation processes may include thinking that humans can realize. This raises some somewhat clear concerns of vital areas such as health care, financing and independent systems, where the understanding of artificial intelligence decisions is extremely important to safety and compliance.

Will after Quantum encryption be enough?

To address the increasing threats posed by quality control, the American National Institute for Standards and Technology (NIST) has started Unification of post -Quantum encryption A project again in 2016. This involves a comprehensive review of 69 nominated algorithms of sheep around the world. Upon completion of the review, NIST has chosen many promising methods that depend on organized networks and retail functions. These are the sporting challenges that are considering the features of attacks from both classic and quantitative computers.

In 2024, NIST made a detailed launch after a quarter Curd standardsGreat technology companies have taken steps to implement early protection since then. For example, Apple unveiled PQ3- which is its post-quarter-Platform protocol, which aims to protect advanced quantum attacks. In a similar note, Google has experienced post -quarter algorithms in Chrome since 2016 and is steadily integrated into its various services.

Meanwhile, Microsoft is making steps promoting the Qubit error correction without disturbing the quantum environment, which represents a great leap forward in the reliability of quality control. For example, earlier this year, the company announced that it had created a “The case of a new issue” (One in addition to solid, liquid and gas) It is called “Qubit Tobology”, which can lead to full quality control in years, instead of contracts.

Main transition challenges

However, the shift to post -quarter encryption comes with a set of challenges that must be addressed to face:

• Timetable for implementation: US officials expect it to take anywhere 10 to 15 years old To put new encryption standards in all systems. This is especially difficult for the devices in hard -to -reach places such as satellites, cars and ATMS.
• Performance effect: Usually it requires after -quarter encryption Main major sizes The most complex sporting operations, which may slow down both encryption and coding operations.
• A Lack of technical expertise. To successfully integrate the quantitative coding into the current systems, institutions need highly benefits professionals on both classic and quantitative concepts.
• Discovering weakness: Even most promising post -quarter algorithms may have hidden weaknesses, As we saw With the selected crystal algorithm.
• Fears of the supply chainThe basic quantum components, such as Cryocool and LASERS players, can be affected by geopolitical tensions and display disorders.

Finally, not another, being intelligence for technology will be very important in the era of quantum. With companies rushing to adopt after a quarter, it is important to remember that encryption alone will not protect them from employees who click on harmful links, open doubtful email attachments, or abuse their access to data.

It is a recent example when Microsoft found two applications unintentionally revealed their encryption keys – while basic mathematics were solid, making this protection ineffective. Errors in implementation often lead to a theoretical safe systems.

Preparing for a quantum future

Organizations need to take some important steps to prepare for the challenges posed by quantum security threats. Here is what they must do, in very wide phrases:

• Perform an encryption stock – evaluate all systems that use encryption and may be at risk of quantum attacks.
• Evaluating the value of the data for data-Discover parts of information that needs long-term protection, and sets the priorities for the promotion of those systems.
• Develop migration timetables-create realistic schedules to move to post-quarter encryption in all systems.
• Allocating the right resources-ensure the large costs budget that comes with the implementation of the quantitative security measures.
• Enhanced monitoring capabilities – setting systems in a place to discover possible HNDL attacks.

Michelle Muska reached a theory To help institutions to plan quantitative safety: If X (time data needs to stay safe) in addition, the time it takes to upgrade encryption systems) is greater than Z (time so that quantum computers can break the current encryption), institutions must take action immediately.

conclusion

We enter into an era of quantum computing that brings with it some serious challenges of cybersecurity, and we all need to act quickly, even if we are not completely sure of when these challenges will be fully achieved. It may take decades before we see the quantum computers that can break the current encryption, but the risk of failing to work is very large.

Fevik Wadwa from Foreign policy magazine He puts it frankly: “The world’s failure to restrain artificial intelligence – or rather, must be raw techniques that disguise this way – a deep warning. There is a more powerful emerging technique with the possibility of chaos, especially if it is combined with artificial intelligence: quantum computing.”

To go ahead with this technological wave, organizations must start carrying out the encryption after a quarter, and monitor the hostile quantum programs and the safe quantum supply chain. It is important to prepare now – before the sudden quantum computers suddenly make current safety measures completely old.

Julius černiauskas is the CEO of Oxylabs.