China is strong, but it is fragile: why leadership and American unity concern more than ever

I just returned from China, where I was the Republican member of the first parliament delegation to visit since 2019.

Our group of both parties met with Prime Minister Lee Qiang and senior officials to pressure for dialogue on military communication to military, trade, nuclear and fentian deployment.

From the moment it fell, carry the atmosphere is unambiguous Echoes of the Cold War. Security, doubts, ideological hardness – all felt as if it were a reflux for the Soviet Union in the 1980s.

Hegsth delivers a strict warning to China in the first call after XI military parade

However, unlike the stagnant Soviet Union in the 1980s, China is still rising. History knows that when an increasing power collides with a steady power, the risk of conflict grows. My former professor at Harvard University, Graham Alison, describes this “Thucydides Trap” – referring to the military conflict that the Greek historian was rooted between the established Sparta and Athens’ height. Sparta won, but at a devastating cost.

Can America go in the war with China while still defending American interests and values? After my visit, I am convinced that we can, but only if we act clearly, power and unity.

Of the explicit exchanges in Beijing and with regional partners, five visions appeared.

First, the increase in dialogue is not indulgence; It is an insurance against miscalculation. The last delegation of China’s house visited six years ago. This gap should not happen again. Members of Congress should continue to visit Taiwan, but also return regularly to Beijing. Thin -level hot military lines must be re -established, so an incident in the Strait of Taiwan or the South China Sea does not go out of control.

second, China is strongBut fragile. Competitive and excessive markets and the speed of the situation to the products quickly. China runs six of the ten largest ports in the world and spends approximately 3 % of GDP on basic research, while universities produce two million bachelor’s degrees per year. Since 2020, the size of the Chinese nuclear arsenal has doubled three times in size.

However, the same component of a single party control that can move resources quickly also enlarges errors-from a zero injury to a built-in real estate sector and is estimated at total debt that exceeds 300 % of GDP. The population who reached their climax in 2023 is already shrinking. Abroad, “Wolf-Larrior” diplomacy is reading as a bullying, and China’s decision to comply with Russia, Iran and Korea in. More importantly, the Chinese Communist Party’s need to implement the European monitoring of its citizens and the brutal expression by the dissidents and religious minorities indicates the insecurity in its leadership.

Third, we must fortify regional partnerships. The real feature of America is not only aircraft carriers – the allies are the ones who choose to stand with us. The joint GDP of the United States, Japan, South Korea, Australia, the Philippines and India exceeds $ 40 trillion and represents more than two billion people. None of these countries want to live under Beijing’s thumb. Building a network of alliances is the strongest deterrent in Asia.

Fourth, follow-up of the areas of American-Chinese interest-but clearly not softening. Nearly 100,000 Americans die every year due to excessive doses of fentianil, and many chemicals arise in China. China has historical and current problems with drugs. If Beijing is serious about a more stable relationship, this is a Litmus test: decisively acting against SEF exports. Nuclear spread is another field in which China has cooperated in the past and should be again. Southeast Asia’s fraud centers are taking advantage of both Chinese and American families. Joint progress in these areas can build confidence that leads to understanding.

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Fifth, renew the American power at home. We perform China today, but whether we will be able to do so It competes with China In the coming years in areas such as artificial intelligence, nuclear energy capacity and the ability of drone warfare depends largely on America’s reform of organizational problems and governance at home. This means cutting the red tape, doing an endless litigation that delays the critical infrastructure for decades and repairing our military purchase cycle. More importantly, the growing national debt crisis in America must be seen through the national security lens.

The best way to Avoid war with China It is completely preparation – with our allies, economy and solution – that the actions of aggression become unnecessary and therefore unnecessary.

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This is not related to encryption or repression. It is related to preserving freedom, deterring coercion and preserving peace. During the Cold War, America’s mixture of strength, alliances and confidence in our values ​​today carried. With China, we do not face a cold war, but a hard peace, as we must work with global partners to direct the increasing ambitions to peaceful results.

Congress delegations in the future may be large and frequent.