Can India be a hedge against commercial wars and definitions?

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Analysts say the main reason behind these moves is the relatively isolated economy in India, which we previously discussed in Last week “inside India“

Morgan Stanley notes that only 12 % of the Indian economy depends on goods exports. Moreover, goods exports to the United States formed a smaller percentage – 2.1 % of GDP. Migice pharmaceutical imports and energy, both of which are currently customary tariffs, and the goods that are affected by the customs tariff are only 1.7 % of the gross domestic product of India.

Obiassana Chatra, the chief economist at Wall Street in India, said India will get a “lower” exposure to the United States between Asian economies, and “the direct impact of the higher definitions of demand for export will be low.”

The country also seems to show the characteristics that you can developed into a safe haven in the emerging market in the future.

For example, the Indian economy depends on the consumer and less dependent on exports than other emerging market economies to advance growth. This makes it relatively isolated from external shocks, such as commercial wars, according to experts.

Meanwhile, more than four fifths, locally owned stock market. Local investors – who regularly poured billions Systematic investment plans – Asset prices are usually studied by the whims of foreign investors during events that exacerbate the volatility.

“The wealth of the stock market in India is mostly locally,” said Alexander Redman, the chief stock strategy in CLSA.

Chuhara from Morgan Stanley also pointed out that the recent decline in oil prices, which has already been concerned about the slowdown in global growth, is likely to be positive for India, given that the energy represents a large share of the import bill in India. The opposite relationship between the global growth and the benefit of the Indian economy seems to be another share in the India

India imported $ 277 billion fuel in 2022. This represents 38 % of all imports in the country for that year, according to World Bank data.

“Global growth often leads to a decrease in the prices of global commodities, as it becomes clear in the decrease in oil prices by 22 % YTD, which affects the conditions of trade in India positively (because India is importing net goods).”

The long decrease in the stock market in India, which preceded the American presidential elections and was driven by concerns over noble assessments, has led to a decrease in stock prices to more effective levels.

“India has the most negative reviews (profits per share) … through emerging and advanced markets except for Indonesia,” said Redman of CLSA.

Analysts transferred their profits to one share down to 60 % of companies in the MSCI India index, compared to 55 % of companies in the MSCI Markets ASIA index, according to FactSet data.

Perhaps this is a bottom for stock prices and hurried global markets in recent weeks.

The question that investors may ask themselves is whether these trends are likely to remain here, or will the world return to its old ways?

Inflation in India cools. The annual inflation rate in India decreased to a 3.34 % expected 3.34 % in MarchThe Ministry of Statistics and the implementation of the program in the country mentioned on Tuesday. Reading decreased for the fifth month in a row and came just less than 3.61 % seen in February, with continued growth in food prices. Reuters economists expected to read 3.6 %

The factory product in India slows down. The industrial production index, which measures the activity of the factory, showed an increase of 2.9 % in February, which decreased sharply from the growth of 5.2 % in January. Slowness in the manufacturing and mining sectors Contributed to the decline, according to data from the Ministry of Statistics and the implementation of the program.

Apple hurry up iPhone shipments from India. In the month of March, the company that is based in Cubino is its headquarters 600 tons of iPhone devices have been exportedNearly two billion dollars remained from India to the United States against US President Donald Trump, the so -called “mutual definitions,” according to a Reuters report. On the other hand, Foxconn and Tata, the main supplier suppliers in India, have witnessed an increase in the export value of that month.

Indian stocks are on the way to the best weekly performance since July 2022. Elegant 50 The index increased by 4 % this week, but the standard still decreased by 1.3 % this year.

Indian government bonds returned for 10 years by 6 basis points during the past week to 6.38 %, the lowest level since December 2021.

“SEMBCORP, a company for energy and urban development in Singapore, said” looking actively in three or four sites in India “. To build new industrial cities. He added that the Indian government in “advanced stages of negotiation” with Sembcorp on these fronts.

Meanwhile, the administrative partner of ChryscaPital Kunal Shouf indicated that Indian companies are following the initial general offers It can be relied more on home support Compared to a decade, when the market was determined by foreign institutional investors.