Can European “shoes on Earth” help protect Ukraine’s security?

President Trump pledged to end the fighting in Ukraine. How can he do this unclear, given that President Vladimir F. Putin from Russia is believed to win. But in his frank way, Mr. Trump opened the possibility of a kind of negotiation for a ceasefire.

Analysts say, if a deal is reached, Mr. Trump is likely to ask Europe to put it in place and bear the responsibility of Ukraine, and they want to reduce the American commitment.

But it remains a major question: How to secure the remainder of Ukraine and prevent Mr. Putin from restarting the war, even for several years from now?

The possibility of a deal in the discussion has accelerated about the so -called European shoes on the ground to preserve peace, monitor the ceasefire, and help Russia deterring the future aggression. The question is who are shoes, how much, and whether Mr. Putin will agree at all.

Certainly, it is certainly a major topic of discussion this week at the annual Munich Security Conference, which is scheduled to attend Vice President JD Vance and Foreign Minister Marco Rubio.

Some European countries, including the Baltic countries, as well as France and Britain, have raised the possibility of some forces in a force in Ukraine. Senior German officials called the premature idea.

It does not seem that the idea of ​​large numbers of European forces from NATO countries from NATO appears to be reckless with many officials and analysts, without the presence of large members of European forces from NATO countries from NATO.

Without a clear American participation in such a process – with the American air cover, air defenses and intelligence, European and technical forces alike will be in serious danger from Russian investigation and even attacks.

President Voludmir Zelinski of Ukraine indicated that he is ready for serious talks on an agreement to end the war, as long as his allies provide security guarantees, not just assurances.

In the absence of NATO membership, which he prefers, Mr. Zelinski talked about up to 200,000 foreign soldiers on the ground in Ukraine. But this is nearly three times the size of the entire British army, and analysts consider it impossible.

A senior European official said that the continent has no even 200,000 soldiers to advance, and that any shoes on the ground must have American support, especially in the face of the second largest nuclear force in the world, Russia. If not, they will be permanently vulnerable to Russian efforts to undermine the political and military credibility of the alliance.

Even the most humble number of European soldiers such as 40,000 will be a difficult target in the continent with slow economic growth, the lack of forces and the need to increase military spending in order to protect it. This is not possible to provide realistic deterrence against Russia.

Lawrence Friedman, professor of honorary war at Kings College College in London, said the real deterrent force usually requires “more than 100,00 soldiers dedicated to the mission” for regular rotation and emergency situations.

The danger will be a policy of the so -called Claudia Megor, a defense expert at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, “Bluff and Pray”.

She wrote in A. “Providing very few Modern paper With Aldo Cleman, German Lieutenant, on how to secure Ukrainian ceasefire.

This is why Poland, whose neighbors, Ukraine and its participation in depth in its security, have so far refused to participate in such force.

“Poland is aware that it needs the United States to participate in any such suggestion, so you want to see what Trump wants to do,” said Alexandra de Hope Chevir, Acting Director of the German Marshall Fund, said. “She wants Trump guarantees that there will be American security assistance to support Europeans in the confrontation line.”

But this is not clear at all. She said, “Trump will take the deal and search for the Nobel Prize, then Europeans expect to pay and implement it.”

However, “Preparing to prepare to do something useful” for Ukraine without Americans will be important to ensure Europe gets a seat on the table when negotiations will recently occur.

Mr. Putin’s declared goals have not changed: Ukraine’s dependence on Russia has stopped enlargeing NATO and reducing his forces, to force a new buffer zone between the Western coalition and the supposed Russian region to influence.

Nor is it possible that Russia in any deal will agree to the deployment of NATO forces or NATO forces in Ukraine anyway, even if they are apparent to train Ukrainian soldiers. The Russian Foreign Ministry has already stated that the NATO forces in Ukraine will be “categorically unacceptable” and escalating.

Mr. Friedman described three possible models – peacekeeping, Tripors and deterrence – all have great defects.

The peace lawyer, who aims to enhance the agreed stop stop and preserve the warriors, are gently armed with self -defense and often contains forces from many countries, and usually under the United Nations. But given that the connection line in Ukraine is about 1,300 km, or more than 800 miles, “a large number of forces” said will be required.

Before the invasion of 2022, there was a task of international monitoring of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, with the Russian agreement, to supervise the observance of a much shorter stop line in eastern Ukraine. Michael Booserkuku, his spokesman from 2014 to 16 to 16 to 2014, said it was a failure.

“The Russians did everything to prevent the task,” he said. They demonstrated in cooperation, limited arrival and hidden various nefarious activities. When things do not do the way they want, they close them. “

Tripwire is mainly what NATO has published in eight member states closer to Russia. There is not enough forces to stop the invasion or see it as provocative, but the concept works only if there is a clear and unbreakable link between the forces on the ground and the greater reinforcements committed to fighting once the wire stumbles.

But there are always doubts about the absolute nature of this guarantee. The force of the attack will gain large lands before the arrival of any reinforcements, which is why NATO himself Increase From its Tribwire forces from the battalion to the brigade, to promote deterrence against aggressive Russia recently.

The third type, which is a deterrent power, is much more credible, but it must be large and well-equipped, and requires up to 150,000 soldiers well equipped, in addition to great obligations in air defense, intelligence, weapons-and America helps in strategic empowerment in Europe. It still lacks, from air transport to satellites to missile defense.

But it will be difficult to imagine that Russia will agree to any such force for the exact same reasons that Mr. Zellinski wants.

Therefore, the best answer for the near future after a potential ceasefire may be a copy of the “Nis” model: giving the Ukrainian army weapons, resources and training-including Western forces-to persuade Russia not to try again. Such commitment, however, should be in the long run.

But Ukraine Verses must stop the slow progress of Russia in the east and Mr. Putin must be convinced of ending the war, with more losses in the battlefield and economic pressure. How to do this will be one of the main tests of Mr. Trump if he has been successful in ending the killing, as it promises to do it.