Can Emmanuel Macron stop the political contraction of France?

The collapse of the Cybastian Lecorno government before dividing Monday, France had decreased into new political turmoil and shakes the markets.

Licoreno was Emmanuel MacronThe third prime minister since the President described the Snap elections last year to go to the far right. It turned out that he was the shortest prime minister since 1958, and he left Macron with a few of the viable options and increased the possibility of another early parliamentary vote-all of which while borrowing costs in France increases.

In the absence of a parliamentary majority, Macron loses increasing allies and has a narrow group of candidates who are able to unify the warring aspects and agree on a budget for the next year to address a hierarchical public deficit.

Here are some of the scenarios.

Why did Licoreno resign and what does it mean?

Lecornu is a nearby Macron assistant, crises and former defense minister. His failure to find a compromise on the budget of the year 2026, which was palatable in the president’s camp, the right center and the left center does not herald good for any candidates in the future.

The Prime Minister’s decrease less than a month after his appointment by Macron only strengthens the extremist right leader Marine Loeb, who was calling for new elections. Opinion polls show that Nationalism National – currently the largest one party in Parliament – is the preferred option for voters, at least in the first round of the legislative elections.

Lecornu concessions were ready to provide them with the socialists, which are less than their demands to impose taxes on the wealthy and freeze pension repair. Instead, he is betting on a pledge not to circumvent Parliament when adopting the budget – but this has proven very little, very late.

On the right of the center, Lecorno chose for former Finance Minister Bruno Le Mer to return to the Defense Secretary Les Ribolbins (LR), who retracted their previous support.

Interior Minister and LR leader Bruno Retario said he had not been informed of the appointment of if Meyer was in advance and that he led to a “confidence problem” – and he threatened him with the fall of the chosen Likorno. Le Mayer withdrew later on Monday, saying he did not want to “prevent the correct performance of the country.”

Likorno later said that Macron cost him recent talks with political parties to “stabilize the country”, adding that he would inform the president with his results by Wednesday evening, so that Macron could “extract appropriate conclusions.”

What are Macron options?

Macron, who chose Lecornu as a final roll of dice, was seen by many analysts and politicians. However, there is no commitment to the president to contact the sudden elections now – given that his camp, nor the socialists or LR will benefit from such a step.

He can still choose a left -wing character, such as Bernard Kaziniov, the former socialist Prime Minister who was presented as a possibility.

The president has long resisted such a appointment, given the left’s demands for the necessity of wealth and the decline in some leading repairs to Macron, supporting business.

Macron can play time and choose non -dependent technocrats.

France It can be ruled by Lecorno as Prime Minister, with the cabinet, which he has just called.

“You can have a coma government for some time,” said Mujtaba Rahman of the Eurasia Group.

On Monday’s separation shot, Lecorno said that his opponents became impossible to work with them: “I was ready to settle, but every party wanted to adopt other parties to all their policies.”

In the event that Macron is parliament, the elections will be held within 40 days.

What will be the result of sudden voting?

Sudden vote can lead to a pending parliament and a failure to break political stagnation.

Even before the fateful Likorno government was appointed, 61 percent of French voters preferred the new elections, according to a TF1-LCI survey in September.

The dual -round voting system holds parliamentary voting, but the investigative studies conducted by IFOP and Cluster17 conducted in recent weeks all predicted that the extremist right -wing Le Pen party and its allies will get the largest number of votes in the first round.

A big question mark hangs over the quarrels, which gathered last year and overcame RN in the sudden elections as the largest group in Parliament. But the Socialists and Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s maximum La France Insoumise have fallen since then, and it is still unclear whether they can overcome their differences.

It is expected to lose the central block that supports Macron more than others. IFOP expected the coalition to bear only 14 percent of voting in the first round, less than four points in 2024.

What will happen for the French budget?

If Macron calls the elections again before the end of the year, it is almost impossible for a new government in time to submit a budget proposal and obtain it through Parliament. Budget plans are usually presented in the fall to allow 70 days of discussions and modifications at the lower home.

This scenario seems increasingly unlikely even if Macron appointed a new prime minister this week. It is not clear whether the interim government can move forward with the budget.

France has mechanisms to avoid closure similar to the United States, by circulating the budget of 2025 to the new year-which is something he did in late 2024 when the then presidential minister was expelled Michelle Barnier because of his budget project.

There are negative aspects of this ruling: the budget will not allow any changes in taxes or discounts in some expenses such as pensions that are indexed to inflation.

With the high borrowing costs, France will find it difficult to curb its general deficit. Lecornu sought to increase taxes and reduce spending to raise deficit to about 4.7 percent of GDP in 2026, from 5.4 percent expected this year. He has warned that it could slip to 6 percent without a budget.

Is Macron function on the line?

Under the French constitution, the president is elected separately and the second period of Macron continues until 2027. It has been excluded repeatedly to move before his mandate ends.

But calls for his resignation have grown with a louder voice, including some of his former allies in LR and the demonstrators who take the streets in recent weeks. Many see the current crisis as one of the Macron made, which must be responsible for – and the only way to break the stalemate.

David Lesnard, Vice President of LR, said on X.

“He is primarily responsible for this situation.”