‘Burst Balloon’: How to break the PAALGAM attack Kashmir’s Modi | Nardra Modi News

New Delhi, India – In his speech in front of a group of supporters in September 2024, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi confirmed with confidence that the Hindu Party of BJP) will create the new Jamo and Kashmir, “which will not be free of terrorism but rather the sky for tourists.”

Seven months later, this promise lies in Thaters. On April 22, an armed group 25 tourists killed And the passenger of the local dowry in the town of Bahjam in the resort in Kashmir, the Indian director, which led to a spiral of ascending in tensions between India and Pakistan, which accuses New Delhi ties of the attackers-the accusation of Islamabad deny.

Armies of nuclear armed neighbors Shooting For three consecutive days along their disputed borders. India has suspended its participation in the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), which is based on its water security, and threatened Islamabad to get out of previous peace deals. The two countries also expelled diplomats to each other, and the military and hundreds of civilians are linked.

But India is simultaneously dealing with a battle on its control. In Kashmir, the Indian Director, Security Forces Home bombing For the families of the armed fighters suspected. They have raided hundreds of suspect rebel supporters and arrested more than 1,500 Kashmiris since PaAlgam’s killings, the bloodiest attack on tourists in a quarter of a century.

However, since the Indian forces combed the bush and dense mountains to try to arrest the attackers who are still free, international relations experts and Kashmir monitors say that last week they revealed large waterfalls in Moody Kashmir’s policy, which they say seems to be staring at a dead end.

Sumanza Boss, the political scientist whose work focuses on the intersection of nationalism and conflict in South Asia, said that the Bahajam attack “a balloon hole from the” New Kashmir “novel.

“Make tourists a target”

In August 2019, the MDI government withdrew the semi -self -cashtir, which relies on Indian without consulting with the political opposition or the Kashmiris. This special situation was a decisive condition for Kashmir to join India after independence from the British in 1947.

The Moody government argued that successive governments failed to integrate Jamu and Kashmir really with the rest of India, and that the semi -self -situation had played in the hands of the separation forces seeking to break the area of ​​India.

The cancellation of the constitutional ruling, which gave Kashmir his own status, was accompanied by a large campaign. Thousands of civilians, including the leaders of the prevailing political parties, have been arrested – even those who look at Kashmir as part of India. Phone and the Internet connections have been closed for several months. Kashmir was cut off from the rest of the world.

However, the Moody government argued that the pain was temporary and needed to restore Kashmir to what many officials described as a “normal” state of life.

Since then, civilians, including journalists, have continued. The electoral constituency limits have been changed in a manner that witnessed Jamo, the Hindu part of the shackles of Jamo and Kashmir, a greater political influence than the Islamic majority Valley. Non-Kashmiri residence cards-which were not allowed before 2019-were issued to settle there, which raised fears that the Moody government will try to change the demography in the region.

Although the region held the first elections for the legislative body in the province a decade ago in late 2024, the newly elected government of Omar Abdullah was deprived of many of the powers enjoyed by other regional governments – with New Delhi, instead, made major decisions.

Amid all this, the Moody government prompted tourism in Kashmir, noting an increase in visitors as evidence of the supposed normal life that returned to return after four decades of armed resistance to Indian rule. In 2024, 3.5 million Kashmir tourists visited the largest number in a decade, according to government figures.

But a long time before Paalgam’s attack, in May 2024, Abdullah now warned the prime minister of the region, an opposition leader – to point out that the numbers of tourism reflect peace and stability in Kashmir.

Abdullah said in May last year: “The situation (in Kashmir) is not normal and talks about tourism as it is an indication of normal life, when they are linked to natural life with tourism, they put tourists at risk,” Abdullah said in May last year. “You make tourists a target.”

Al -Jazeera contacted Abdullah to comment on the current crisis, but it has not yet received a response.

On April 22, Bravin Bonte, analysts in the International Crisis Group, said on April 22, said Bravin Blunthi, analysts in the International Crisis Group, on April 22, said Bravin Bonte, analysts in the International Crisis Group, said on April 22, Braveen Bennathi, analysts in the International Crisis Group, said that the Moody government’s account warned by Abdullah warned against what he left specifically against the promoter Bahasham in the blood. He said: “New Delhi and her security agencies began to purchase their own evaluation of peace and stability, and they became satisfied, assuming that the gunmen will never attack tourists.”

Even the Paalgam attack, the armed fighters had greatly survived the tourists in Kashmir, taking into account their importance to the region’s economy, as BDNI pointed out. “But if he is pushed to the wall, everything that requires it is two men who carry weapons to prove that Kashmir is not normal,” he said.

Dealing with Kashmir, dealing with Pakistan

On April 8, just two weeks before the attack, Indian Minister of Internal Affairs Amit Shah, who was widely seen as Modi Vice -Modi, in Srinjar, the largest city in Kashmir, was to chair the security review meeting. Abdullah, the Prime Minister, was not part of the meeting – the latest example as he was removed from the security reviews.

Analysts say this confirms that the Moody government is viewing Kashmir’s security challenges almost exclusively as an attachment to foreign policy tensions with Pakistan, and not as an issue that may also need local inputs of New Delhi to successfully address this. India has long accused Pakistan of arming, training and financing armed rebellion against its government in Kashmir, the Indian director. Pakistan claims that it only provides moral and diplomatic support for the separatist movement.

Polhathi said the Paalgam attack shed light on the foolishness of the Modi administration’s approach.

He said: “The dropping of this is a security crisis that is fully nourished by Pakistan that can make it politically and locally beneficial, but it will not help you resolve the conflict.”

“Unless the Indian government begins to deal with the Kashmiris, there will be no solid solution to this violence.”

Until now, there is little evidence that the Moody government is considering a transformation of the approach, which seems to be “to meet the needs of local linguistic and national discourse,” said Sheikh Shuker, a political commentator based in Kashmir.

The focus since Paalgam’s attack was to punish Pakistan.

Since 1960, IWT-the water participation agreement between India and Pakistan-has survived three wars and was widely welcomed as an example of throughout national water management.

Under the treaty, both countries receive water from three rivers each, from the Indus basin: three East rivers – Ravi, Beas and Sutlej – to India, while three Western rivers – Andus, Gilum and Chinab – carry 80 percent of water to Pakistan.

But the future of this agreement is uncertain with India’s suspension of its participation in the treaty after the Paalgam attack. Pakistan responded by warning that attempts to stop or transfer water resources will become a “war act”. Islamabad has also warned that it might attach her participation in all bilateral treaties, including the Simla Convention of 1972, signed after their war in 1971, which essay the control line, the effective borders between them.

Boss, the political scientist, said: “Pakistan sincerely views this issue (water loss) in terms of existential and even terrible terms.” “India knows this – it indicates a policy of collective punishment towards Pakistan, which affects tens of millions of people.”

However, experts raised many questions about India and Pakistan ads.

How can India stop water in practice when you don’t have the ability to keep these strong rivers? Can water turn and risk floods in their lands? And if Pakistan walks away from the Simla agreement, is it possible to indicate a state of war?

Boss said: “All these measures are events, on both sides,” but with “concrete effects”.

For its part, India seeks to re -negotiate IWT for several years, claiming it does not get its fair share of water. “The new Cashmeer crisis (new) Delhi is given an opportunity and an excuse to withdraw the operator on the treaty,” said Shotkat, a commentator who is based in Kashmiri.

Will Modi change the Kashmir approach?

Two days after the Paalgam attack, Modi was touring Bihar, the Eastern State scheduled for the elections later this year. In his speech to the election march, the Prime Minister said he would chase the attackers “until the end of the land.”

For NILANJAN MUKHOPADHYAI, Modi biography, such speeches reflect what he argues with is the only goal of Modi Kashmir: “Glaming the main electoral circle of the Bharatia Gatata Party in the rest of the country through difficult to Kashmir.”

Since independence, the ideological father of the Bharatiya Jatata Party, Rashtia Swamesvac Sang, considered that Kashmir for an incomplete project: RSS for decades called for the status of the private area, and to learn about a firm approach to security in the Muslim majority area.

“Now, the only thing is,” we want revenge, “said Mukhopadhyay, in reference to the language that is currently dominating India.

Since the attack, many Kashmiris were beaten all over India, as the owners pushed the tenants and doctors who move away from Muslim patients. Social media platforms are widespread with the content of inflammation that targets Muslims.

In some respects, Bonteh of the International Crisis Group said that Paalgam’s attack is a “arm shot” by Moody’s government. While the security challenges in Kashmir and the crisis with Pakistan represent strategic and geopolitical tests, “at the local level, it is the situation to be the Moody government in.”

He said that this was in particular with a largely weak opposition to the queue – the main conference of the opposition Party is a muscle response to Pakistan to the attack.

However, Boss, the political world, argues that the Moody government did not focus on short -term political accounts. He said that Modi’s comments in Bihar, and the large -scale hatred against the Kashmiris and the Muslims who spread through Indian social platforms and on TV channels, reflected the broader global view of the Bharatia Gatana Party on Kashmir.

He said that Kashmir is an ideological battle for the Modi party, adding: “This government will never change the policy of Kashmir.”