Britain’s commercial deal with Trump may not be good news for the world

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“How much is the legal structure that this deal will get?” A commercial lawyer at a prominent company asked me yesterday, and he referred to the remnants of a meeting at the conference table in front of him. “On this handkerchief.”

Even the architects of the commercial deal announced between the United States and the United Kingdom will be called an economic or legal beauty. Apparently even without even signed document – and a purely designer to escape the definitions imposed by Donald Trump on steel and cars – the agreement is closer to the protection payments to the head of mobs than an editorial agreement between the sovereign countries.

Whether the deal deserves the matter politically, this account is only that the UK government can do for Mr. Kerr Starmer. Certainly, exporters did not give us a large amount to the UK market. But regardless of the short -term benefit she granted to the United Kingdom, it did not do much for the integrity of the global trading system.

The United Kingdom is not even one of the most affected economies of Trump’s definitions. Its auto industry is largely directed towards exports, but mainly towards the European Union: the United States takes Less than five UK exports. It has a relatively small steel industry, Less than 10 percent of the exports that Go across the Atlantic Ocean. Because he barely has any trade surplus with the United States, the UK has also not threatened with the so -called “mutual” tariffs announced on April 2 and then suspended after a week. The European Union, for example, faces 10 other percentage points of tariffs, if Trump finds the courage to bring it and risk the collapse of another financial market.

This new agreement poses risks to the United Kingdom, even before considering the broader effects. Looking at the extent of the UK’s passion for concluding a deal, there is no guarantee that Trump will not return to more. According to the poet Rudyard Kipling, the thing related to Dane-Eld-protection money that kings in England in England in the Middle Ages of the Viking invaders-is that “as soon as Dane-GELD paid him, you never got rid of Dane.”

During his first term, commercial partners can make dedicated deals with Trump, such as the “first stage” agreement of the United States with China, and be reasonably sure that they will abide. But as Canada and Mexico can witness, Trump in the second -term Trump is more large and vulnerable to changing a deal after it was agreed. The pledges of these countries to smuggle to smuggle fentanel were accepted first and then Trump rejected them, despite the absolute lack of evidence in the case of Canada that such smuggling is significantly present.

This agreement with the United Kingdom is supposed to follow a full trade agreement over the next year, but the country has now been put in a weak position to bargain as well. Trump can withdraw these concessions at any time if these conversations are not on his way.

Meanwhile, the most important risks are not for the United Kingdom itself but the global trading system. Part of the deal includes reducing protection on imports including ethanol and beef from the United States but not from other countries, although this was not an official trade agreement. Consequently, the United Kingdom undermined the principle of the “most preferred nation” that lies behind the multilateral trading system. Officials are committed to credibility by claiming that they are compatible with the rules of the World Trade Organization as part of a broader package. If other countries want to expel a noise, the World Trade Traffic settlement session may soon be sorted. By accepting that it will continue to face the basic tariff by 10 percent, the UK has also normalized a deep retreat.

When Britain left the European Union, it was part of the stadium that it would be a strong and active defender for free trade and multilateral rules. It will play a creative and party role in the World Trade Organization, edited by the competing protectionist of the European Union. In joining the Asia Pacific Agreement, it will be linked to the world’s power zone for trade.

By surrendering American pressure and rushing to get a quick deal, the UK encouraged others to do the same. In recent weeks, the European Union and CPTPP have taken temporary moves towards collaboration to protect the regulation -based trading system. China, Japan and the European Union have resisted to bounce into rapid agreements by the United States. China insisted that it come to the negotiating table on its own conditions. The European Union today revealed the list of recent revenge targets against the United States. These efforts have now been undermined.

The United Kingdom can definitely make a political choice. You can choose to pay Dan. She managed to escape from the worst Trump tariff at the present time. But the promise that Britain, after Britain’s exit from the European Union, will prove that it is an unforgettable anchor to the internationally -based international trading system that seems weaker today than it was before.

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